Friday, 4 March 2016

TVIX, UVXY - a third week of significant declines

With equities rising, and the VIX continuing to melt lower, the 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw net weekly declines of -20.8% and -21.6% respectively. Near term outlook offers threat of another 10/15%, via decay and continued equity upside into the FOMC of March 16th.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly decline of  -14.9% @ 16.86.

As for TVIX and UVXY...

TVIX has now declined by -50.4% since the high of $13.58 (Feb 11'th).

UVXY is -51.1% since the high of $61.92

My broader outlook remains unchanged. Market to max out in the sp'2020/40 zone, by mid March. Considering the VIX has already cooled to the 16s. If sp'2030/40s, then VIX might briefly spike-floor in the 14/13s.

Broadly, the VIX 25/30 zone looks probable by mid April. The 40/50s look more viable in late April/early May.

As ever, TVIX/UVXY are for short term holds only, due to the underlying problem of statistical decay.