Wednesday, 27 April 2016

AAPL - mid term troubles

Whilst the main market settled moderately mixed, there was severe weakness in Apple (AAPL), which settled lower by a very powerful -6.3% @ $97.75 - the lowest close since Feb'29th. Near term outlook offers further downside... not least if the sp'500 breaks under 2060 in early May.

AAPL, daily

AAPL, monthly


Suffice to add.. Q1 earnings were truly lousy.. and the outlook isn't particularly great.

The market has always had a pretty low tolerance for AAPL - pricing it at what has remained a bizarrely low PE in the low teens.. or even under 10. Now the pressure is really on CEO Tim Cook, as the market is concerned that Q2.. or even Q3 won't offer anything much better.

If.. and it remains the ultimate 'if'... the main market FAILS to break new highs into the summer, then the market will rollover.. and break massively lower.

First key downside target is the Aug'2015 low of $91.11.

From there.. its essentially open air to key fib retraces of the 85s, 82s... and core support around $70.

For now.. talk of AAPL @ $70 will (understandably) be regarded as 'crazy talk'.

But if we are trading in the sp'1600/1500s this summer/autumn... that is where AAPL will (at least) have traded down to.