Friday, 1 April 2016

TVIX, UVXY - a seventh week lower

With the equity market breaking a new cycle high of sp'2075, and the VIX remaining very subdued - new cycle low of 13.00, the 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw net weekly declines of -20.0% and -21.9% respectively. For now, there is still no definitive sign of a short term floor/turn.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly decline of -11.1%

As for TVIX and UVXY, a seventh net weekly decline is the worse run since Oct-Dec 2014.

Clearly, there is going to be some kind of multi-week up swing, but for the moment, there is simply no clear floor/turn, not least with the VIX breaking a new cycle low of 13.00 this Friday afternoon.

*I remain long the VIX - via TVIX. A few weeks ago, an entry in the $4s seemed out of range, and even though I did get finally get involved in the upper $4s, I'm already significantly underwater.

The one upside, unlike VIX option calls, I don't have a ticking detonator clock to worry about. Although there is the usual 'statistical decay' problem of course.

Unless sp'500 breaks and holds above the next key level of 2081, I am content to hold.