Friday, 6 May 2016

TVIX, UVXY - pressured by the subdued VIX

Despite equities closing net lower on the week, the VIX failed to display any sig' upside power. The 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw net weekly declines of -9.9% and -10.3% respectively, coming close to breaking last week's low.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly decline of -6.2%.

Seen on the giant weekly cycle, the VIX has a realistic opportunity for a bullish cross in the last week of May, with viable upside to mid/upper 20s.

As for TVIX and UVXY, it was a lousy performance, but then.. the VIX had failed to push upward, even with the sp'500 breaking last Friday's low of 2052.. to a new cycle low of 2039.

*yours truly remains long the VIX - via TVIX.  Even if there is further downside to the sp'2000/1990s, that might only push the VIX to the 19-21 zone, which itself might equate to TVIX just 20/25% higher from current levels... offering the 4.00/4.25. A break back into the $5s looks out of range in the current cycle.