Friday, 13 May 2016

TVIX, UVXY - struggling with subdued volatility

With the VIX remaining broadly subdued, the 2x lev' bullish volatility instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw net weekly declines of -6.1% and -5.2% respectively. Near term outlook offers some upside, as the VIX is set for the upper teens.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a minor net weekly gain of 2.2%.

As for TVIX and UVXY,  considering equity price action, and the broadly subdued VIX, it was not surprising to see the leveraged instruments still close net lower on the week.. despite moderate Friday gains.

Right now... the upper daily bollinger for TVIX is around $4, and for UVXY in the $17s. If sp'2020s next week, that will be the first big zone of natural resistance.

*my broader equity outlook is for the first opportunity of sustained/significant downside no earlier than late May.. and the same applies to the VIX.

VIX 30s.. and perhaps far higher still seem due, but clearly, for those holding across multiple weeks, it remains a pretty tough time.

yours truly remains long the VIX via TVIX. The notion of closing out from what remains a VIX in the low teens, seems ludicrous. I hold.