*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly gain of 2.7%.
Outlook on the VIX...
A test of the key 20 threshold seems extremely probable, but will that be it for the summer?
If US equities can achieve the unthinkable, with sp >2134, then VIX will remain broadly subdued <20 for the remainder of the year.
Best guess... VIX 25/30 zone (if briefly), but that outlook is dropped on any move much above sp'2111/16.
As for TVIX and UVXY, a fifth consecutive week of horror, and the 14'th weekly decline of the past 17.
Since the Feb'11th high....
TVIX $13.58 > $2.24, a net decline of -83.5%
UVXY $61.92 > $9.99, a net decline of -83.9%
As ever.. long term holds (as in 1-2 months or greater) rarely end well.
Even for those who bought TVIX in the $5s or $4s in March/April, will likely require the VIX to spike to the 20/25 zone to have any chance of a breakeven exit.
Those who bought in the 6s or higher, are going to almost certainly exit for a loss in June, or will merely see further decay.
It is inevitable that TVIX/UVXY will see periodic reverse splits, as a result of the statistical decay issue, inherent fees, and the costs involved within the instrument as VIX futures are regularly rolled across to the next month.