Friday, 22 July 2016

TVIX, UVXY - a fourth week lower

With equities breaking new historic highs, the VIX continued to break new multi-year lows. The 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw net weekly declines of -10.5% and -8.8% respectively. Mid term outlook into Aug/Sept', is for further equity upside and a subdued VIX, which will merely equate to further decay for TVIX/UVXY.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


First, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly decline of -5.1%.

As for TVIX/UVXY, a fourth week of (not surprising) declines, as equities broke new highs, and the VIX was unable to manage a daily close in the low teens.

If equities continue to broadly climb across August and into September - as seems highly probable, then TVIX/UVXY are going to broadly decay by another 20-30%

*for me, the VIX-long trade is dead until at least mid/late September.