Tuesday, 19 July 2016

NFLX - great shows, crazy valuation

Whilst the main market closed moderately weak, there was very severe downside in Netflix (NFLX), which settled -13.2% @ $85.76. As Q2 earnings/outlook have upset the market, NFLX looks highly vulnerable to the $70 threshold within 2-3 months.

NFLX, daily

NFLX, monthly


NFLX is churning out some of the best scripted television shows ever made. Yet.... such original production is costly, and NFLX has become a seriously cash hungry company.

Recent increases in subscription prices are a good thing for the longer term, as viewers are going to need to fully pay for the costs of such original content, along with some degree of profit margin.

From a pure price perspective, NFLX looks headed for $70... where there is a lot of price cluster support.

It should be clear though, if profits/revenue miss again in Q3 or Q4, the stock will be vulnerable to next support in the $50/45 zone.

*no position, would consider long in the 72/68 zone, and most certainly around the $50 threshold.