Friday, 15 July 2016

TVIX, UVXY - a third week lower

With the sp'500 and Dow breaking new historic highs, the VIX remained broadly subdued. The 2x lev' bullish instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw a third week of declines, -8.4% and -8.6% respectively. VIX outlook into Aug/early September offers no realistic opportunity for sustained increased volatility.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


First, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly decline of -4.0%.

As for TVIX/UVXY, with equities breaking new highs, it was no surprise to see further declines in the VIX instruments.

Considering the very significant equity break 'up and away', I see VIX-long as a broadly dead trade until at least mid/late September.

It is notable that UVXY is set for a 1 for 5 reverse split on July 25th.