Wednesday, 31 August 2016

GDX - rough month for the miners

It was another difficult day for the mining stocks, with the ETF of GDX settling -1.8% @ $25.44. For the month of August, GDX declined by a very severe -16.8% - the worse month since April 2013. Near term outlook is bearish. Mid term outlook - from the Jan' low, is now extremely borderline.

GDX, daily

GDX, monthly


So... with Gold seeing minor weak chop into end month - settling around $1300, the related mining stocks continued to struggle.

Daily cycle: next support is around $22, where the 200dma is lurking.

Monthly cycle: rising support - from the Jan' low, is in the $25s, and is now being fractionally broken. Any Sept' price action in the 25s will more decisively break trend.

If the USD eventually breaks above the DXY 100 threshold - as seems inevitable at some point, it is going to be a serious deflationary pressure on the metals.. and that would certainly drag the miners lower.. even if the broader equity market is continuing to rise.