Tuesday, 15 November 2016

GDX - a second day for the miners

Whilst the main equity market settled broadly higher, there was notable strength in the gold/silver mining stocks, with the ETF of GDX settling +4.3% @ $22.03. Near term outlook is bullish, but there remains huge upside resistance within the $24/26 zone.

GDX, daily

GDX, monthly


Relative to the precious metals - which saw moderate gains, the mining stocks actually had a rather strong day.

Yet the two day decline last Thurs/Friday was so severe that despite two sig' daily gains, GDX is still below the Thursday close. Seen on the giant monthly cycle, we're currently -10.1% on the month. It can be argued price structure is offering a giant multi-month bull flag, but we'll only have provisional confirmation of that with some daily closes >$26.

Cyclically, short-term, the miners are clearly vulnerable to further upside, but the broader mid term bearish trend remains intact. Only negated on a break >$26.

*its notable that a death cross is due within a few days, as the 50dma is set to cross under the 200dma. There will indeed be a great deal of resistance in the $24s.