Thursday, 19 October 2017

UAL - crashing through support

Whilst the main market saw a day of moderate swings, there was severe downside in United Continental (UAL) which settled -12.1% at $59.78. With a break of rising support from the Sept' low, s/t outlook is bearish. Despite concerns of a price war, m/t outlook is bullish.


UAL daily



UAL monthly



Summary

The day began....


.... with the CEO of UAL on CNBC. In pre-market, the stock was lower by around -2%, which (despite the main market) was a surprise, as earnings were unquestionably good.

Yet... with a moderately weak main market, the stock started to spiral. With talk of a 'price war', technical support was broken, and that saw a major washout occur. The daily candle is very bearish, and bodes for a test of the recent low in the $57s.

To be clear... earnings were good. With annual EPS of almost $9, this makes for a forward PE in the 7s. On any basis, that is crazy low.. a third of the typical main market valuation.

Unless you really believe there is set to be some kind of mid term price war between the airlines, the mid term outlook has to be bullish. The grander target for 2018 would be the giant psy' level of $100. Right now, that is a massive 67% to the upside.

yours... prefers travel via train.

Wednesday, 18 October 2017

CREE - crazy unjustified spike

Q3 earnings for CREE were lousy, with EPS of -20cents. Mr Market has somehow managed to twist that into a hyper spike, with the stock settling +16.4% at $34.16. Next big resistance are the $38s. Mid term outlook is very bearish, as the company is still unable to generate any profits.


CREE daily



CREE monthly (linear scale)



Summary

First, see: http://investor.cree.com/

http://investor.cree.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1044252
--

There is frankly, very little good to read in there.

The new CEO is touting a focus on Power and the RF side of the business, and away from lighting. So, at least Cree is recognising that there is very little money to be made within the lighting business. That is progress... of a sort.

The company is clearly still struggling, within an economy that is in growth mode. What happens to CREE when the next recession hits, whether that is 2018, 19, or whenever?


Technically

Today's hyper spike is largely technical, and a good example of just how crazy things can get when the shorts get squeezed. I call it a 'short-stop cascade', where the higher the stock trades, the shorts have to cover at ever higher prices, which triggers more short-stops. Today's instance was a particular fierce feedback loop.

On any basis, earnings were lousy, and today's price action is unsustainable in the mid term. I will note that 'technically', the next resistance isn't until the $38s, so its possible we see those, before the 'fundamental bears' start to grind the stock back into the $20s.

--
Yours... bullish LED lighting, but bearish anyone who tries to make money from it. There is little to no money to be made in domestic or industrial lighting!

Tuesday, 17 October 2017

NFLX - earnings were fine

Netflix (NFLX) earnings for Q3 were unquestionably fine. However, it was a mixed day for the stock, breaking a new historic high of $204.38, but settling -1.6% at $199.48. Near term outlook is bearish, but with higher subscriber numbers, who are set to pay more, the mid term outlook is very bullish indeed.


NFLX daily



NFLX monthly



Summary

*I shall refrain from highlighting a wide array of data, which will have been covered across a thousand other sites.
--

Q3 EPS was 29cents - vs 12cents a year ago.

On a forward basis, (round up) to $1.20yr, with a current stock price of $199.48, that gives a F' PE of 166. On any basis, that is ludicrously high.

If you are extremely generous, and assume Netflix could reach 50 cents per quarter within a year - $2.00yr, that gives a F' PE of the 99s. That is still double what Nvidia is priced at, and more than 4x the main market.

To be clear, I like the company, which is creating some of the best original content the industry has ever produced. The current valuation is crazy, but as the US/world economy is growing, the company has better  pricing power, and is now confidently periodically raising prices. How long until the typical monthly fee will be $15 a month? Two years? Three? It certainly won't be more than five.

There is a sideline issue in that Disney will eventually want all of its content - especially the Marvel shows, on its own streaming service. However, this is still a few years away, and for the moment, the market doesn't much care.
--





Bullish Stranger Things, just in time for Halloween.

Monday, 16 October 2017

PSX - short term weak

Whilst the main market continued to lean fractionally higher, there was significant weakness in Phillips 66 (PSX), which settled -3.8% at $90.87. With a decisive break of rising trend, s/t outlook is bearish. However, more broadly, the stock looks headed for the giant psy' level of $100.


PSX daily



PSX monthly



Summary

Suffice to add, s/t weak, but m/t, this stock has already achieved a key breakout, as especially seen on the bigger monthly chart.

F' PE: 15s, yield 3.1%. Certainly not super cheap, but neither is it expensive.

Keep in mind the fact that WTIC has ended the bearish series of lower highs and lower lows. A move to the 54/55s looks viable before year end, and that could only help re-inspire the stock back upward.

M/T bullish to $100, and from there... 125/30 by mid 2018.. which isn't that bold.

Friday, 13 October 2017

GDX - miners leaning upward

The gold miners saw a week of mixed chop, with the ETF of GDX settling the week on a moderately positive note, +0.5% at $23.84, which made for a net weekly gain of 1.1%. Near term outlook offers another wave lower, but a mid term breakout above the Feb' high appears extremely probable.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, the settling daily candle was of the 'black-fail' type, and cyclically, GDX looks vulnerable in the very short term.

Mid term outlook is rather promising though, as gold and silver - lead by copper, are all broadly clawing upward.

The gold miners are notably lagging relative to Gold, which is close to the summer 2016 highs, whilst the miners are massively below equivalent levels.

Key thresholds: Gold $1400, Silver $22s, Copper $3.00 (achieved).

Thursday, 12 October 2017

BAC - leaning weak into earnings

Whilst the main market only closed fractionally lower, there was significant weakness in Bank of America (BAC), which settled lower by -1.5% to $25.45. Earnings (due Friday morning) will likely be fine, but the stock looks near term vulnerable to the low $24s.


BAC, daily



BAC, monthly



Summary

Suffice to add, s/t bearish to the $24s, but mid term... I'm effectively hyper bullish. First big target is the psy' level of $30, and then the $33s. If you believe the US/world economy will tick along for another 2-3 years, then BAC could be seen to eventually challenge the 2007 historic high of $45.15.

--
As an aside, today's settling bearish engulfing candle in Citigroup (C) was rather interesting.


First soft support is the $70 threshold, then 67/66, with the 200dma in the $63s.
--

Of the financials, I favour BAC and JPM, not that I'd argue C, MS, or GS aren't 'okay'.

Wednesday, 11 October 2017

GE - just another down day

Whilst the main market saw a day of minor chop, General Electric (GE) settled lower for a fourth consecutive day, -1.2% at $23.07, the lowest close since Sept'2015. Near term outlook is bearish to the $22.00 threshold. A monthly close <22 looks unlikely, after what is arguably a retrace/consolidation of hyper gains from 2009-16.


GE daily



GE monthly



Summary

Suffice to add... GE has been a fascinating stock to follow this year, having cooled from a Jan' high of $31.01 to today's low of $22.90.

GE is currently net lower for the 9th month of 10, having only seen a minor gain in February.

S/t outlook is bearish, by another 4-5% to around the $22.00 threshold, which has been important across the past few decades.

F' PE 14s, yield 4.1%... certainly 'reasonable', relative to a great many other things.
--

*JPM downgraded the stock with a target of $20.00. That target is clearly possible by year end, but I'm guessing no, on the primary assumption there will be no bearish monthly index closes (sp<2420).

Tuesday, 10 October 2017

DIS - this is not going to go...

Short term price action in Disney (DIS) remains choppy, with the stock settling the day up 1 cent to $99.58. Near term outlook is bearish (along with the main market), to the $97/96s. An eventual bullish breakout seems a given, for a company that owns the cash making franchises of Star Wars and Marvel.


DIS daily



DIS monthly



Summary

Disney stock saw a hyper run from $25.73 in Oct'2011 (when sp'1074), to $118.62 in early Aug'2015... just before the market imploded. Since then, its been broadly choppy, finding support within the 88-84s. The Sept' low of $96.20 is still a little vulnerable, but mid term outlook has to be bullish.

Arguably, price action since summer 2015 to the present could be seen as just a massive consolidation of the hyper ramp from 2011. Cyclically, we're on the low end, and I'd look for an uptick in price action into year end.

Clearly, 'star wars' chatter will help to raise interest in the stock, but its not just star wars of course, there is Marvel, and that is arguably as important, perhaps even more so.

--



'This is not going to go... the way you think', Skywalker, L. date unknown.


Seriously, its arguably just a case of whether Star Wars 8 generates 2, 3, or even $4bn in revenue for Disney.

Forward PE 15s, yield 1.6%. Not cheap, but on any basis, its not remotely expensive either.
--

To be clear, I am s/t bearish, but m/t bullish, seeking new historic highs (>118.62) in 2018. If you believe in Dow 40k (within 3-5 years), that would equate to $250 or so, and I recognise that can be seen as 'crazy talk'. But then.. so was $100... back in 2011.

yours... hyper bullish star destroyers

Monday, 9 October 2017

GE - still mid term bearish

Whilst the main market saw a day of minor chop, there was very significant weakness in General Electric (GE), which settled -3.9% at $23.43. There is no major support until around the $22.00 threshold, which is another 6% or so lower.


GE, daily



GE, monthly



Summary

Suffice to add... mid term weak, but I suspect GE will soon be concluding its mid term bearish trend from summer 2015.

The $22.00 threshold would arguably sync up with the sp'2474/61 gap zone.

Forward PE: 14s. Yield 3.9%.   On any basis... not expensive.
--

If the $22s do hold, first upside target will be the $27s, which would be viable in spring 2018.
--

Friday, 6 October 2017

GDX - back on the rise

Whilst gold and silver saw a mixed week, the miners caught a bounce. The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a positive note, settling +1.6% at $23.59, which made for a very significant net weekly gain of 2.7%. Near term outlook offers further upside. First soft target is the Feb' high of $25.71.


GDX weekly




GDX monthly


Summary

So, 3 weeks down, and the gold miners are back on the rise. Clearly though, things only get interesting if the Feb' high of $25.71 is broken AND held above. Until then, its mostly been a year of broad chop.

The bigger monthly chart is even more illustrative of how price action is broadly stuck. The two clear thresholds are $31.70 and $18.58. The cautious bulls or bears, will simply sit on the sidelines until either of those are broken through.

Best guess? I'm leaning on the inflationary outlook. For now, the only sign of that is via copper, which saw a very bullish August settlement above the key $3.00 threshold.

Gold, Silver, and Copper broadly trade together, and if copper does climb into 2018, its difficult to see gold, silver, and the related mining stocks not following.


Key thresholds: Gold $1400, Silver $22s, Copper $3.00 (achieved).

Thursday, 5 October 2017

NFLX - bullish stranger things

With the announcement that subscription rates would be raised for most US customers, Netflix (NFLX) jumped in early morning, breaking a new historic high, settling +5.4% at $194.39. The increase in prices is a bold, but necessary move for mid term sustainability, as high quality content doesn't come cheap.


NFLX daily



NFLX monthly



Summary

Suffice to add, price structure of a double top from 191/89 has been decisively broken above.
The door is now open to the psy' level of $200, and mainstream chatter will no doubt start murmuring the $300s... even the $500s within 2-3 years.


The price changes

Netflix has come an awfully long way from literally mailing DVDs in the mail. Now its one of the finest content producers in the world. The typical Netflix consumer is surely going to tolerate being billed one extra dollar per month.




--



I am bullish 'Stranger things', 'The Punisher', and a fair few other Netflix shows.

Wednesday, 4 October 2017

JD - short term cooling to the 200dma

Whilst the main market broke another sextet of new historic highs, there was significant weakness in JD.com (JD), settling -2.2% at $38.34. The 200dma within the target red zone of 38/36 is highly probable, before the stock has a better chance of pushing upward into year end.


JD, daily



Summary

JD is not a stock I get around to highlighting that often, but recent price action merits attention.

JD maxed out at $48.99 on Aug'8th - prior to earnings, and is continuing to cool.. if choppily. The 200dma is a prime target, and looks due within the near term.

Mid term outlook is bullish, first soft target is the psy' level of $50. JD is a valid alternative to BABA, or the global retail monster of AMZN.

Tuesday, 3 October 2017

F - trading above the downward trend

Ford Motor (F), settled higher for the fifth consecutive day, +2.1% at $12.34. This was the highest close since March 16th. Most notable though is that the stock is now sustainably trading above the mid term downward trend that began in July 2014.


F daily



F monthly



Summary

Suffice to add... we have a provisional break of the downward trend that has lasted a full three years. Now its a case of how Ford settles the month. Any monthly close >$12.00 would be very bullish. 

With a forward PE in the 7s, and a yield of around 5%, the valuation is simply.... ludicrous.

First soft target: $15. Any monthly closes >$15.50, will offer 22/23s... whether by end 2018, or 2019, it should make little difference to those on the long side.

Monday, 2 October 2017

MU - already breaking into the $40s

Whilst the US equity market broke a quintet of index historic highs, there was continued significant strength in Micron Technology (MU), breaking an intra high of $40.37, settling +1.7% at $40.01. Near term outlook threatens a touch of cooling, but mid term outlook is hyper bullish, after what is a monstrously bullish breakout.


MU daily



MU monthly



Summary

*I was tempted to highlight DIS or INTC, today, but MU is too difficult to resist.

I can only suggest anyone do a little research into recent earnings, and then consider what was a powerfully bullish August settlement.

see: http://investors.micron.com/

Most recent earnings: http://investors.micron.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1041722
--

Jon Najarian, aka Dr' J, highlighting more call buying in MU
--

First target zone of $45/50 is clearly within range before year end. On balance, the giant $100 threshold looks on the menu in 2018, assuming the main market 'bullish train remains on the tracks'.

yours... powered by NVDA, INTC, and MU.

Friday, 29 September 2017

GDX - a month of cooling

With gold and silver seeing sig' net monthly declines, the miners followed. The ETF of GDX ended the week on a negative note, settling -0.9% at $22.95, which made for a rather powerful net monthly decline of -7.1%. Near term outlook offers renewed upside. First soft target is the Feb' high of $25.71.


GDX monthly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, technically, it was the worse monthly decline for the miners since Nov'2016, but broadly, the miners have been churning sideways for the year.

The key threshold remains the Feb' high of $25.71. Any price action >26.00 will be decisive enough to offer a straight run to the summer 2016 high of $31.70.

Thursday, 28 September 2017

MU - continuing to power upward

Whilst the main market saw a day of mostly minor chop, there was continued significant strength in Micron Technology (MU), which settled +2.3% at $37.96. Near term threatens some cooling, but mid term is hyper bullish, with next target of the 45/50 zone.


MU daily



MU monthly



Summary

Little to add from yesterday.

The sustained break >$37 is VERY bullish, and bodes for 45/50. Considering the current price action, $45 is now a valid target by year end. The bigger $50 threshold looks more viable in spring 2018.

Long term... chatter of $100 can begin. 

Wednesday, 27 September 2017

MU - soaring on superb earnings

Earnings for Micron Technology (MU) were unquestionably superb, and the stock settled the day +8.5% at $37.08 Near term outlook threatens some cooling, but more broadly, the break into the $37s offer grander upside to the 45/50 zone by late spring 2018.


MU daily



MU monthly



Summary

see: http://investors.micron.com/

Most recent earnings: http://investors.micron.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1041722
--

I have been touting the 'bizarrely under-valued' Micron across this year, not least as earnings just keep getting better and better each quarter. With headline (adjusted) EPS of $2.02, and revenue of $6.14bn, the trend is really very good indeed.
--
 

Jon and Pete Najarian highlighting Sept' $33 calls

Indeed, those who were long via option calls, or the stock, are very pleased, as the stock has broadly climbed from the Aug'11th low of $26.85 to today's intra high of $37.15.
--


Is Micron the next Nvidia, which has climbed from $24 in Jan'2016 to $191 this month? Probably not, but its kinda hard to imagine the stock not pushing to at least $50 by next spring.. especially if sp'3000.

I'm certainly not the only one who is seeking MU to 45/50

see:  https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=mu  , and scroll down to see some of the institutional targets.

Micron is a reminder that not every stock in the US market is crazy priced like AMZN or NFLX. If you believe MU has grander upside into 2018, then it should give you clarity on the trend for the broader market.

Yours truly is HYPER bullish Micron Technology for the mid term.

Tuesday, 26 September 2017

AMD - a fourth day lower

Like many tech stocks, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) opened sig' higher, but settled lower for a fourth consecutive day, -1.3% at $12.45. The daily close under the 200dma is very bearish, and threatens October downside to the key psy' level of $10.00. Mid term bullish to $20.00.


AMD daily



AMD monthly



Summary

To be absolutely clear.... I'm short term bearish, but mid term bullish.
 
I will only add, I can think of many better tech companies though, as AMD is yet to prove itself with decent earnings.

I'd refer anyone to go do some research in MU, NVDA, INTC, QCOM, AAPL, CSCO, ORCL, and ADBE.

Monday, 25 September 2017

APRN - a bizarre bullish call

Whilst the main market saw moderate weakness across much of the day, there was sig' strength in Blue Apron (APRN), settling +6.7% at $5.54, as Guggenheim Securities issued a buy target of $9.00. Frankly, its arguably the most bizarre and stupid trading call of the year so far.


APRN, daily



Guggenheim



Summary

It was perhaps appropriate that as the North Korean foreign minister argued that Trump's weekend comments were an effective declaration of war, that meanwhile in market land, someone was touting the mid term potential for Blue Apron.

I could drone on about just how stupid this trading call appears to be... but suffice to add....

-Blue Apron is a cash hungry monster... operating at a consistent loss.
-Faces massive competition, not least from the corp' beast of AMZN-Whole Foods
-If it can't turn a profit whilst the economy is growing, what happens when a recession hits?
-Employee mood within the company is DIRE, not least after recent firings.

--
To be clear, the brand is pretty strong, and I'd agree there is potential within some of the larger metropolitan areas to expand. Yet... on balance, this company isn't making any money within what is a naturally low margin sector of food delivery.

Bearish to the 4s.. if not the 3s.

Ohh, and no, I'm not currently short APRN, but it does make for some ongoing 'sideshow entertainment'.
--

I just hope CNBC drag this DiFresco guy on set if the stock is trading in the $3s before year end.

Friday, 22 September 2017

GDX - falling with the metals

With the precious metals of gold and silver significantly lower for a second consecutive week, the related miners naturally followed. The ETF of GDX settled the week on a positive note, +1.1% at $23.47, but that still resulted in a net weekly decline of -2.7%. Near term outlook is bearish.


GDX weekly



GDX monthly



Summary

Suffice to add, its not surprising to see GDX closely track the related metals.

For now, gold is comfortably holding the mid term upward trend from Dec'2015. Silver is still lagging, but to counter that, copper is mid term bullish, having seen a powerfully bullish August close >$3.00. On balance, Gold and Silver should push upward... with GDX to follow.

--
Key thresholds: Gold $1400, Silver $22, Copper $3.00 (achieved).

GDX: Feb' high $25.71, then the summer 2016 high of $31.70.

Thursday, 21 September 2017

X - settling under the 50dma

Whilst the main market saw a day of weak chop, there was very significant weakness in US Steel (X), which saw an intra low of $24.32, and settling -4.4% at $24.66. The daily close was 10 cents under the 50dma, the most bearish close since June 27th.


X daily



X monthly



Summary

Suffice to add, short term bearish.... mid/long term bullish.

If you believe the main market will see a 4-5% correction, then considering we have already seen a daily close under the 50dma, its hard to see rising trend - from mid May, not also breaking. That threshold is currently around $24.00. In theory.... the most bearish case are the sp'2400/2390s... with X around $21.00.

US Steel is unquestionably a good company, and unless you think the US/world economy is set to see a recession within 3-6 months, it is a stock for the mid/long term.

Wednesday, 20 September 2017

AAPL - still leaning weak

Apple (AAPL) broke a new historic high of $164.94 on Sept'1st. Since that time, the stock has been declining (if choppily), and today settling lower for the 9th day of 12, -1.7% at $155.99. Near term outlook threatens the 150/49 zone. A hit of the 200dma in the low $140s is very viable (if briefly) in October.


AAPL daily



AAPL monthly



Summary

Suffice to add... short term bearish, but unless a few of the US (and other world) indexes see bearish monthly closes (whether Sept' or Oct'), the mid/long term outlook has to be bullish. Note the monthly 10MA, currently in the $141s, and still rising. Unless that is broken and closed under, the equity bears have nothing to tout.

Tuesday, 19 September 2017

FCX - a third day higher

Whilst the main market settled fractionally mixed, there was further significant strength in Freeport McMoRan, which settled higher for a third consecutive day, +2.5% to $14.48. Near term outlook offers threat of the $13.30/20s into early October. More broadly, first soft target are the $17s, and then the $24s.


FCX daily



FCX monthly



Summary

Suffice to add, FCX is near term choppy, leaning on the weaker side, as copper has cooled from a recent high of $3.18. Considering the August copper settlement above the very important $3.00 threshold, I have to be mid term bullish the copper miners of FCX, TECK, and SCCO.
--

Mainstream attention...


Pete Najarian of https://investitute.com highlighting FCX.

I should add, from a pure 'technical perspective', Southern Copper (SCCO) is the strongest, Teck Resources (TECK) is second, with FCX the third strongest.
--


Copper, weekly


The bullish view for the miners is only dropped if copper breaks under mid term rising trend, currently at $2.70, and which will be around $2.90 by year end.