Friday, 15 December 2017

GDX - battling to hold support

The gold mining ETF of GDX settled the week on a moderately negative note, -0.4% at $21.99, but that still resulted in a net weekly gain of 1.4%. Near term outlook offers chop into year end. Things only turn provisionally bullish with a break >23.00, to be decisive, the mining bulls need to exceed the Feb' high of $25.71.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, a sig' net weekly gain for the miners - naturally helped via upside in gold and silver, but more broadly, the picture isn't so pretty. The miners have been cooling since September, and other than the very sig' 'fed day' gain, price action continues to lean on the weaker side.

The cautious will leave the sector well alone until at least a provisional bullish break, which is arguably GDX >$23.00. 

Alarm bells if Gold <$1200, or if GDX sees any daily closes <$21.00.

Best guess? Based on my broader bullish commodity outlook, I'm still leaning bullish.

Thursday, 14 December 2017

TEVA - jumping on restructuring news

Whilst the main market saw a day of moderate swings, there was notable strength in Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA), which saw an intra high of $18.98, and settling +10.2% at $17.30. The stock is still within a m/t bearish trend, but that looks set to be decisively concluded in early 2018.


TEVA daily



TEVA monthly



Summary

Suffice to add, huge layoffs of around 14k, a suspended dividend, and the stock soared in pre-market by around 18%. For those working for Teva, it was a very bad day, but for the stockholders, its was a good day, and it marks the beginning of what is an overdue major restructuring.

Technically, the m/t bearish trend looks set to be broken in early 2018. I would keep in mind the key monthly 10MA, currently in the $23s, but that will be down to $20 by March/April.

I am m/t bullish TEVA. First soft target is a monthly close above the monthly 10MA, which is indeed a target that will be easier to hit with each month. Any monthly close above the 10MA will offer secondary of the 32/33s.

Wednesday, 13 December 2017

BAC - post hike cooling

The fed raised rates as expected, with Bank of America (BAC) seeing some classic 'sell the news' cooling, settling -1.6% at $28.84. S/t bearish... if only for a day or two. M/t bullish, as the psy' $30 threshold is due before year end. Many now recognise the $33s are coming, as higher rates are bullish financials.


BAC daily



BAC monthly



Summary

Suffice to add... higher rates are bullish financials, and to a lesser degree, the broader equity market and US ecomomy.

BAC remains my most favoured of the US financials.

Tuesday, 12 December 2017

FCX - a fifth day higher

Freeport McMoRan settled higher for a fifth consecutive day, +4.6% at $15.71.The push above $15.00 is significant, and offers the low $16s within the near term. Any monthly close >17.00, will offer the 24/25s by late summer 2018.


FCX daily



FCX monthly



Summary

Relative to the past two months of price action in copper, FCX is actually performing rather well indeed...



With a daily close of $15.71, the low $16s are easily viable within the very near term. There will likely be some considerable chop/consolidation in the low $16s.

What really matters - as seen on the monthly chart, is whether FCX can attain a decisive monthly close in the 17s. If that is achieved, its open air to the 24/25s, last seen in Dec'2014. Clearly, it will need copper to stabilise around the $3.00 threshold, and resume broadly upward.

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FCX garners most of the 'copper miner' attention. However, Southern Copper (SCCO) is technically, and arguably also fundamentally, a superior company. A second alternative is Teck Resources, although that has a coal segment, which is a commodity that many want absolutely nothing to do with.

Monday, 11 December 2017

GILD - mid term strong

Whilst the main market settled moderately mixed, there was notable strength in Gilead Sciences (GILD), which settled +2.2% at $75.88. The Nov' low of $70.05 marks a key higher low. M/t outlook is bullish to >90.


GILD daily



GILD monthly



Summary

Suffice to add, the recent Nov' low of $70.05, marks a key higher low. Price structure on the monthly chart is a bull flag spanning Sept-Nov'. A break into the 77s would arguably provisionally confirm it, the 86s would be decisive.

First target is the $90 threshold, back to levels from April 2016. Bullish GILD into/across 2018.  

Friday, 8 December 2017

GDX - a second week lower

The gold mining ETF of GDX settled the week on a moderately positive note, +0.5% at $21.68, but that still resulted in a third consecutive (if minor) net weekly decline of -3.6%. Near term outlook offers a test of big support around the $21.00 threshold.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

A second sig' net weekly decline for the miners, clearly pressured by a third consecutive net weekly decline for gold and silver.

The critical issue is whether Gold can hold the key $1200 threshold. If that is lost, it would be bode monstrously mid-term bearish for the related mining stocks.

Best guess? Silver has been broken since the summer, and the last two weeks have been rough for Gold. I'm increasingly leaning on the bearish side, not least as copper is also back under the key $3.00 threshold.

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The bolder mining bulls could be long from around current levels, but to be clear, if GDX loses the $21s, and/or Gold <$1200, it would merit 'run for the exits'.

The cautious metal/mining bears would wait to chase lower on a break of GDX <21, and/or Gold <$1200.

Thursday, 7 December 2017

MU - a third day higher

Whilst the main market saw moderate gains, there was very significant strength in Micron Technology (MU) which settled higher for a third day, +3.9% at $43.20. The Monday low of $39.07 is now an increasingly secure floor. First soft target is the psy' level of $50. M/t bullish to $100.


MU daily



MU monthly



Summary

Suffice to add, with an FPE in the 6s (or even 5s, depending on how you calculate it), the stock remains ludicrously priced on the low side. It is no stretch to see $100 by late 2018.

Next earnings are due Tuesday, Dec'19th in AH. I expect good numbers, and the $50 threshold is viable before the Christmas break.

Wednesday, 6 December 2017

BABA - mid term super strong

Alibaba (BABA) saw the first gain in 7 trading days, settling +2.2% at $172.63. Near term outlook offers a little chop. More broadly, new historic highs (>191.75) are due in early 2018. M/t bullish to 225/50 by mid 2018.


BABA daily



BABA monthly



Summary

Little to add.

BABA has proven sig' profits, and looks fine for the mid term. November settled weak, and we're currently net lower for a second month.

A valid, if somewhat more speculative alternative is JD. 

Tuesday, 5 December 2017

MU - short term floor

Whilst the main market saw a day of moderate swings, there was very significant strength in Micron Technology (MU) which settled +3.3% at $41.21. Today's net daily gain offers provisional confirmation that the Monday low of $39.04 is a s/t floor, with the stock having cooled from $49.89.


MU daily



MU monthly



Summary

Six days down... and finally a net daily gain for Micron. There has been notable buying around the psy' $40 threshold across the past 3 trading days. Effectively, the stock has declined by around 20% since the Nov'22nd high.

A floor does appear in. The cautious will now be buying, with a stop around the $39.04 low.

With a FPE in the 6s, Micron remains my most favoured stock in the entire market. Next earnings: Dec'19th in AH.

Monday, 4 December 2017

DIS - a clear breakout

Whilst the main market saw a day of broad upside, there was notable strength in Disney (DIS), which settled +4.7% at $110.22.The stock has achieved a clear breakout, with next soft target of the 115/118 zone. A move >120 looks probable by early spring 2018. Talk of the 140/50s by end 2018 can begin.


DIS daily



DIS monthly



Summary

Little to add from recent posts.

Technically, breakouts don't come any clearer. Today can be counted as Day'1 UP, and the Disney bulls can expect an extended bullish phase, as in months... rather than mere weeks.

Note the MACD (green bar histogram) cycle on the bigger monthly chart. At the current rate, we'll see a bullish cross in Jan' or Feb. Next earnings will be due early Feb'. If Mr Market is pleased, its possible we'll push >120 even before early spring.
--


Meanwhile, the buildup to Avengers: Infinity War (due April/May 2018) has already begun. The fans are naturally already hyper...



... bullish.

Friday, 1 December 2017

GE - starting the month bearish

General Electric (GE) began the final month of 2017 on a bearish note, settling -2.2% at $17.88. November saw the stock settle net lower for a ninth consecutive month, and on balance, December will surely settle net lower. The Oct' close <$22, offers no major support until the $13s.


GE daily



GE monthly



Summary

Suffice to add... the horror show continues.

November was always about whether Flannery could inspire, and he failed, with Mr Market smashing the stock from $20.75 to $18.29. The Nov' low of $17.46 looks set to be taken out before year end, as there will no doubt be some degree of tax-loss selling.

yours.. bearish to the $13s.

Thursday, 30 November 2017

BAC - bullish with higher rates

Bank of America (BAC) - the shining star of the US financials, ended the month on a fractionally positive note, settling +1cent to $28.17. This made for a third consecutive net monthly gain of 3.3%. M/t outlook is bullish, with soft target of the $33s, and secondary of the 40/45 zone within 12/18 months. Higher rates are bullish for BAC, the financial sector, and the broader US equity market.


BAC monthly



BAC daily



Summary

It was a bullish end to the month, and there is zero reason to expect the m/t trend not to continue until at least the $33s, if not $40/45. The latter will clearly require US rates at least 2.50%, if not >3.00%.

For the record, I do NOT expect rates to fully 'normalise' to around 5%. There are simple 'math problems', as higher rates will eventually cause problems in terms of debt repayments, at consumer, corporate, and governmental level. However, until rates are at least 2.50%, I don't see any significant reason to be concerned.

--
Many in the mainstream recognise that higher rates are bullish for BAC and the broader financial sector...

Pete Najarian of investitute.com, regularly highlighting BAC, JPM, XLF
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yours.. bullish BAC, the financials, and the main market, into/across 2018.

Wednesday, 29 November 2017

DIS - powered by the Infinity Gauntlet

Whilst the main market saw a very mixed day, there was notable strength in Disney (DIS), which settled +1.8% at $105.24. A sustained bullish break >106s is due, and that will open up first soft target of the 115/118 zone. The 140/50 zone is a valid target if the US/world economy continues to grow across 2018.


DIS daily



DIS monthly



Summary

Recent earnings were 'fine', and price action since late October has been rather bullish indeed.

Note the MACD (green bar histogram) on the giant monthly chart. At the current rate, we'll see a bullish cross/positive cycle in January or Feb'. First soft target are the previous two highs of 115/118. A move to 120/25 seems very viable by mid 2018, not least if Dow 25/26k.
--

Disney owns the two biggest movie/TV franchises in the world - Lucasfilm and Marvel.

Today, Marvel released the first trailer for Avengers - Infinity War, a movie that many fans have been waiting for since 2008.




yours... bullish Thanos. Even if loses, he'll take down some of the Avengers with him.

Tuesday, 28 November 2017

BAC - soaring on rate hike outlooks

It was a very bullish day for the financials, with Bank of America (BAC) settling +3.9% at $27.64. Many are now looking ahead to 2018, as most recognise rates are set to further increase, which is inherently bullish for all financials. M/t bullish, soft target $33s, and then 40/45.


BAC daily



BAC monthly



Summary

Across 2017 I noted the importance of the key $18 threshold, and how an upside break would have monstrously bullish implications for the mid term. We saw the breakout in Nov'2017, and that can be marked as month'1 UP.

Some 12 months later, BAC has seen the $27s. Next big target are the $33s... last seen in Dec'2008.

Higher rates are unquestionably bullish, and it looks safe to assume another 3-4 hikes next year. As things are, BAC is set for a third consecutive net monthly gain, and the $33 really do appear a given.

Monday, 27 November 2017

MU - just some cooling

Micron Technology (MU) began the week on a rather negative note (intra low 47.09), settling -3.3% at $48.05. There is natural psy' level resistance around the $50.00 threshold, with last week seeing a high of $49.89. Near term offers further weakness, but m/t... still hyper bullish to $100.


MU daily



MU monthly



Summary

I'd imagine at least a few will start to tout 'the bubble has burst', but with an FPE in the 7s, Micron remains very under-valued relative to the main market.

The fact the stock has already hit the $49s, gives confidence to the original outlook. The break into the $37s in September was massively important, and the door to the giant psy' level of $100 is wide open, viable even before end 2018.

I can understand if some prefer more well known techs like INTC, CSCO, or even AAPL. To me though, MU is my favourite tech stock, and indeed, my favourite stock in the entire US market.

yours... bullish Micron, into and across 2018.

Friday, 24 November 2017

GDX - a third week higher

With gold and silver ending the week on a slightly weak note, the related miners followed. The ETF of GDX settled -0.3% at $22.85, but that still resulted in a third consecutive (if minor) net weekly gain of 0.3%. Near term outlook offers weak chop. Things would get interesting if GDX >$23.10.


GDX daily



GDX weekly



Summary

Nothing to add from recent weeks.

Wednesday, 22 November 2017

MRO - higher with oil

With WTIC in the $58s, Marathon Oil (MRO) caught renewed interest, settling +2.5% at $14.88. Recent price action is just a retrace of the initial big wave from the key Aug' low. M/t bullish, soft target $19s. Any monthly close >19 will offer the 29/30s in 2018.


MRO daily



MRO monthly



Summary

Little to add, aside that there has been recent notable call activity in MRO.

yours.. bullish MRO, bullish energy

Tuesday, 21 November 2017

MU - powering upward

Micron Technology (MU) continued to push upward (intra high $49.63), settling +3.7% at $49.40. The key psy' level of $50 is clearly viable within the immediate term. The m/t hyper bullish target remains $100, which is ironically rather conservative.


MU daily



MU monthly



Summary

Suffice to add, yet another day higher for Micron, as the psy' level of $50.00 is set to be hit. With an FPE in the 7s, the notion of $100 by late 2018 is very much viable.
--


There has been sustained option call buying in MU for some considerable time, today was no exception...

Pete Najarian of investitute.com highlighting notable call activity.
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yours... bullish to $100. 

Monday, 20 November 2017

JD - short term chop

JD.com (JD) settled -2.6% at $39.20. Recent earnings were fine, and the stock is arguably just seeing short-term chop. Things would only turn bearish if the Oct' low of $35.79 is broken under, and that is still a considerable way down.


JD daily



JD monthly



Summary

Suffice to add, recent earnings were indeed fine. Its notable the stock saw a black-fail candle at resistance Nov'13th.

Soft bullish target are the 49/50s, which are clearly out of range before year end, but look a given within spring 2018. The more cautious will stick to Alibaba (BABA), which has proven sig' profits.

Friday, 17 November 2017

GDX - ending the week positive

It was mostly a week of chop for the gold miners, but the week did end on a positive note. The ETF of GDX settled the day +0.8% at $22.79, which made for a second consecutive net weekly gain of 1.2%. Near term outlook is bullish, and would be greatly helped if the USD remains under the DXY 95s.


GDX daily



GDX weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, with gold and silver battling upward, the related gold miners are following.

It is notable that GDX continues to lag, relative to gold. Its been a year of broad chop, with the mining ETF stuck under the Feb' high of $25.71.

Mining bulls should be seeking a break above the weekly 10MA, currently at $23.15. Things only get interesting once the Feb' high is broken and held above. Any price action in the $26s will offer a fast run to the 2016 high of $31.70.
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* the one indirect bullish for gold, silver, and the related miners is copper, which is set for the third monthly close of the past four, above the key $3.00 threshold.

Thursday, 16 November 2017

CSCO - good earnings as expected

Cisco Systems (CSCO) had good Q3 earnings, with the stock jumping at the open (intra high 36.67), and settling +5.2% at $35.88. M/t outlook is bullish, with first soft target of the psy' $40 level, and then the $44s.


CSCO daily



CSCO monthly



Summary

As expected, Cisco System earnings were good, and Mr Market has been reminded of the inherent quality of the company.

Not that many were highlighting Cisco ahead of earnings, but in addition to yours truly...



... Pete Najarian of investitute.com was exceptionally bullish the stock last Friday, and is now seeking $40, which is a valid soft target within the mid term. 
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Seen on the bigger monthly chart, the 'natural' price thresholds are clear as crystal. Even the $44s would still be a considerable way below the March 2000 bubble high of $67.30. The 50/57 zone looks just about possible by late 2018, and that would equate to Dow 30k.. if not 35. Crazy talk? Would you rather be short?

yours.. seeing good value in numerous stocks.

Wednesday, 15 November 2017

BAC - the shining star of the US financials

Along with the main market, Bank of America (BAC) opened lower, but there was a powerful swing upward, with the stock settling +2.1% at $26.79. M/t bullish, with soft target of the $33s, and a grander target of 40/45 by late 2019.


BAC daily



BAC monthly



Summary

*there was notably huge option call activity in BAC today, within the Dec' and Jan' $28s. 
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Suffice to add, having cooled from a late Oct' high of $27.98, today's low of $25.81 likely marks a key floor.

Most notable, today's settling daily candle was of the bullish engulfing type. This was a particularly strong one, and it bodes for renewed upside into next week's Thanksgiving break.

I have been hyper bullish BAC since the key breakout in Nov'2016. Next soft target are the $33s, with a grander target of 40/45. Clearly, the latter will require US int' rates at least 2.50%, if not >3.00%. I recognise many will be dismissive of rates reaching those levels before the next recession.

yours... bullish higher rates, and thus.. bullish financials.

Tuesday, 14 November 2017

GE - Flannery fails to inspire

Whilst the main market saw a day of moderate chop, there was further severe downside in General Electric (GE) which settled -5.9% at $17.90. There is threat of a sporadic $2-3 bounce, but next major support is not until the $13s. Bearish GE, Bearish Flannery.


GE daily



GE monthly



Summary

Flannery had a major opportunity yesterday. The plan was outlined, but it just wasn't enough. The dividend cut was significant, but other measures seem minor, if not laughably trivial. The underlying problem is that profitability has collapsed, and there seems little hope of any improvement within 6-12 months. In fact, it would not be a surprise to see things further deteriorate.




Even some within the mainstream, including the Cramer, are coming around to the realisation that its not so much about a possible recovery in 2018, but rather not until at least 2019. Cramer was borderline pissed this morning, saying 'I've been had'... no less than half a dozen times.



Flannery himself suggested that investors could buy on a 3-5 year outlook, but not short term. That kind of talk did not please Mr Market. Today's price action into the $17s, confirmed that after Flannery's appearance on CNBC, Mr Market is simply not inspired.

Technically, the next major support is not until the $13s. Sure, there will probably be a few powerful bounces along the way, but broadly, the $13s do very much look on track.