Wednesday, 16 August 2017

MU - mid term super strong

Whilst the main market settled fractionally mixed, there was notable significant strength in Micron Technology (MU), settling +3.4% at $30.69. A break above the key $33.00 threshold will offer a fast run to the $36s. Any price action >37 will offer grander upside to 45/50 in 2018.


MU, daily



MU, monthly



Summary

Suffice to add, I really like Micron. The most recent earnings were superb, and the current valuation, offers a forward PE around 5. On any basis, that is ludicrously low, and frankly, the stock 'should' be priced at least double.

A mid term outlook to $45/50 doesn't seem overly bold, but it'll clearly require the main market to 'stay on the tracks' into spring 2018. On balance.. that seems probable.

--
There was notable option call buying today...

Jon Najarian, regular guest on the CNBC lunch hour show.

Traders were buying the Sept'33s and 36s. Those are pretty bullish upside trades, with barely a full month left on the detonator clock. Regardless of that short term trade though, the mid term outlook for MU looks very bullish indeed.

Tuesday, 15 August 2017

RIG - back to 1995

Whilst the main market saw a great deal of minor chop, there was very significant weakness in Transocean (RIG), which broke below the Jan'2016 low of $7.66, seeing an intra low of $7.55 - the lowest level since 1995, and settling -5.7% at $7.91. Near/mid term outlook is bearish, as WTIC and Nat' gas remain mid term weak.


RIG, monthly, 27yr



RIG, daily



Summary

Suffice to add, near, mid, and long term trends are unquestionably bearish.

The cautious will leave this stock, and the entire sector, well alone unless a break above declining trend, which for RIG is currently around $17.00... and that is a very long way up.
--


As an aside... for those with an interest in the bigger picture, the following is highly recommended...





yours.. no car.

Monday, 14 August 2017

NVDA - a powerful bounce

Whilst the main equity market settled broadly higher, there was a powerful bounce within Nvidia (NVDA), which settled +8.0% at $168.40. Last week's break of rising trend/support is still a problem though, and there remains high threat of another swing lower, at least to test last week's low of $152.91.


NVDA daily



NVDA monthly



Summary

Despite today's very powerful gain, the outlook is short term bearish, not least after last week's break of rising trend that stretches back to the mid April low of $95.39.

Seen on a monthly chart, NVDA looks frigtheningly bullish. First core support is around $120, which is currently 28% lower.

Unless the main market is close to a key top (the only sign of that is via the R2K), there is little reason to be mid term bearish NVDA. Recent earnings were certainly somewhat better than reasonable.

Friday, 11 August 2017

GDX - a significant weekly gain

With the precious metals catching a 'fear bid' this week on the 'Korean situation', the related miners followed. The ETF of GDX settled the day +0.3% at $23.15, which made for a very significant net weekly gain of 3.7%. Near term outlook is leaning bullish. Mid term is turning bullish with a fractional break of declining trend/resistance.


GDX daily




GDX weekly



Summary

It was a somewhat mixed week, starting weak, but then pushing upward as the equity/capital market became increasingly upset.

With the precious metals of gold and silver building an outright 'fear bid', the related miners followed. The weekly close is fractionally above declining trend/resistance, that extends back to the Feb' high of $25.71.
--

To have confidence, mining bulls need to see Gold >$1300, Silver >$19, and Copper >$3.00.

Those with a hyper bullish mining outlook require Gold >$1400, Silver >$22, and Copper >$3.00.
--

Arguably, the 'cautious bears' will only chase/short GDX lower on a break of the July low of $20.99.

Thursday, 10 August 2017

TVIX, UVXY - a powerful day higher

With equities closing significantly lower, there was powerful upside in volatility. The 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY settled higher by 26.8% and 26.9% respectively. Near term outlook offers sp'2435, which should equate to VIX at least another 1-2pts higher in the 17/18s. The key 20 threshold is a serious (if brief) threat.


TVIX daily



UVXY daily



Summary

Special update on the VIX, currently net higher for the week by a hyper powerful 59.9%


--
I have generally refrained from highlighting any of the VIX instruments since summer 2016, not least as the VIX-long trade has been frankly... dead.

With the sp' swinging from 2490 to 2437, things are getting a little interesting, and we've seen the VIX surge from the 9s to the 16s.

A three day series of gains have clawed TVIX and UVXY back to levels from early July. The mid May highs look out of range, unless next Monday sees a mini-crash to sp'2350/25 zone... which on balance, is extremely unlikely.

--
As ever, holding across multiple days or certainly - weeks, is extremely problematic for any leveraged instrument.
--

Wednesday, 9 August 2017

DIS, NFLX - begun the streaming war has

Disney earnings were fine, but the withdrawal of movies from Netflix, is effectively a declaration of war against what will now be its prime rival. DIS and NFLX settled lower by a significant -3.9% and -1.4% respectively. Despite settling reversal candles, near term outlook offers further weakness.


DIS daily



NFLX daily



Summary

*Withdrawal of the DIS movies from NFLX is scheduled for 2019. No doubt, a number of TV shows (such as Defenders) will also be eventually pulled.
--

DIS: EPS of $1.58, with rev' $14.24bn, the latter being a marginal miss under consensus. Regardless, the company is doing very well. It remains somewhat odd how the mainstream are overly focused on ESPN, which is a decreasingly important part of its business.

Today's early low of $100.50 was the lowest level since Dec'6th 2016. The break under the 50/200dma's is a serious matter - at least in the short term.Things would turn bearish for the mid term with a monthly close <$99, and to be clear.. that seems unlikely.

NFLX: clearly spooked by the news that DIS is going to start breaking away from its previously 'cosy relationship'. The daily settling candle is a reversal, but further weakness to the 50dma - currently $165, seems extremely likely.
--

For the record, I really like both companies for the long term. Of the two, I favour DIS, not least due to the valuation (forward PE 15/16s), and a yield of around 1.5%.

--



Indeed, begun war has, between two corporate giants.
--

ps. .. and no, I'm not suggesting Iger is Palpatine. :)

Tuesday, 8 August 2017

ABX - continuing to struggle

Like most Gold miners, Barrick Gold (ABX) is struggling, settling lower for a fifth consecutive day,  -0.4% at $16.50. Near term outlook is bearish to the 50dma at $16.20. Mid term outlook only turns bullish with price action >$19.00.


ABX, daily



ABX, monthly



Summary

Barrick Gold is unquestionably one of, if not, the best gold miner out there. Yet.. gold and silver prices remain broadly weak, and that is keeping the stock subdued.

The cautious will wait to chase ABX until a sig' break higher. Seen on the daily chart, the $19.00 threshold... or via the monthly chart, a monthly close >$20.00. The latter looks out of range within the near term, as Gold and Silver remain choppy, and well below the summer 2016 highs.

The infamous 'gold bugs' can only get confident of hyper upside, if Gold >$1400, Silver >$22s, Copper >$3.00, and ABX >$23.33. 

Right now, only the copper target/threshold looks viable within the near term.

Monday, 7 August 2017

DIS - leaning weak ahead of earnings

Whilst the main market saw yet another day of micro chop, there was notable weakness in Disney (DIS), which settled net lower for the third day of the past four, -1.2% at $106.35. The 50/200dma will offer big support in the upper $105s.


DIS daily



DIS monthly



Summary

Suffice to add, short term, from a pure technical/cyclical perspective, the setup favours the bears across the next few days, as we saw a bearish MACD cross on the daily cycle today. Price momentum on the bigger monthly cycle is fractionally negative, having cooled since April ($115.24).

However, unless you think the main market is close to a mid/long term top, there is little reason to see DIS under the most recent key low of $102.41, or the core psy' level of $100 any time soon.

--
*earnings are due Tuesday Aug'8th in AH.

Friday, 4 August 2017

GDX - stuck at a key intersection

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a bearish note, settling -1.7% at $22.32, making for a net weekly decline of -2.6%. Near term outlook is bearish, not least as the USD is in the early phase of a multi-week bounce. Mid term outlook is extremely borderline, with indirect 'hope' via copper near $3.00.


GDX daily



GDX weekly



Summary

With the USD ending the week with a moderate bounce, the precious metals were pressured lower, and that  dragged the related miners lower.

Seen on the bigger weekly chart, you can see how GDX has seen a clear rejection as what is an interesting intersection of two key trend lines.

The cautious mining bulls will leave the miners alone unless a break >$23.09... or a more decisive $24.00. Things would turn exceptionally bearish if the July low of $20.99 is taken out, with Gold <$1170.
--

The one indirect bullish aspect for Gold/Silver, and the related miners is copper...

Copper, weekly



Based on decades of price action, the three metals do broadly trade together. If copper can attain a monthly close >$3.00, it will be highly suggestive that Gold and Silver will eventually catch up. For the gold bugs out there... copper really is something to keep an eye on for the rest of the summer.

Thursday, 3 August 2017

TSLA - Q2 much like Q1

Whilst the main market closed moderately mixed, there was significant strength in Tesla, which settled +6.5% at $347.09. Near term outlook does threaten some cooling, but no lower than $330. With the US capital market still giving Musk a 'free pass', mid term outlook is bullish.


TSLA daily



TSLA monthly



Summary

Suffice to add, Q2 EPS of -$1.33 was identical to Q1, although the cash burn is accelerating, as the company is trying to ramp production.

The stock valuation is utterly insane, but as is often the case, so long as earnings are better than expectations - even if its nominally bad, the stock will at least initially rally.

Fundamentally, this is one messed up company. Higher sales will merely see Tesla lose even more money, and that is despite huge govt' subsidies for each vehicle.

Technically, Tesla is super strong. Many recognise the $500s seem viable in 2018, and I can't much disagree.

Wednesday, 2 August 2017

AAPL - earnings remain good

Earnings for Apple (AAPL) remain good, with the stock breaking a new historic high of $159.75, settling +4.7% at $157.14. Near term outlook offers a touch of cooling to at least $154. Mid term, the $200s seem a given, as the US/global economy continues to tick along.


AAPL daily



AAPL monthly



Summary

Suffice to add, earnings were unquestionably good, and the stock justifiably broke a new historic high.

The daily settling black-fail candle is a subtle warning of short term exhaustion, and some cooling to 154, perhaps $150 would be very natural within 1-3 days. However, mid term.. the trend is super strong, but fully justified on good earnings.

Most now recognise that the $200s are on track, certainly by late spring 2018.

Tuesday, 1 August 2017

CSX - short term weak

Whilst the main market saw yet another day of moderate chop, there was notable weakness in CSX, which settled lower for a fourth consecutive day,  -1.5% at $48.60. Near term outlook offers the $47s. A test of the 200dma - soon in the $45s, would sync up with sp'2435, before the mid term bullish trend resumes.


CSX daily



CSX monthly, linear scale



Summary

Suffice to add, recent earnings were fine. CSX is merely being dragged lower by the broader transportation sector, which has been a laggard across this year.

Seen on the bigger chart, the mid/long term trend is bullish. Things only turn mid term bearish if <$45, and then the target would be $35, back to levels seen in 2015/14.

Short term bearish, but mid term bullish. First soft upside target is the 50dma - currently in the $52s, and then the July 13th historic high of $55.48.

Monday, 31 July 2017

TSLA - big bear flag in longville

Whilst the main market settled moderately mixed, there was very significant weakness in Tesla (TSLA) which opened higher to $341.49, but then swung powerfully lower, settling -3.5% at $323.47. Near term outlook offers further sig' weakness to at least the psy' level of $300.


TSLA daily



TSLA ,monthly



Summary

*first, note last Friday's black-fail doji candle, warning of trouble.
--

Bear flags don't come much cleaner, and today's decline has already provisionally confirmed it.

The main market looks set for sp'2435, and in theory, TSLA should at least fall to around the psy' level of $300. The 200dma - soon in the $270s, is a valid secondary target, based on the size of the flag, and the break of core rising trend seen July 5th.

Note the daily MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle, which is set for a bearish cross at the Tuesday open. This is the bears big opportunity to smash the stock lower. The next day or two should be rather 'interesting'.

Its probably time to message Elon again about 'trouble in longville'.
--

*earnings are due this Wednesday, Aug'2nd, in AH.

Friday, 28 July 2017

GDX - price action is tight

With the precious metals ending the week on a positive note, the miners followed, with the ETF of GDX settling +1.5% at $22.91, making for a third consecutive net weekly gain of 2.2%. Broader price action is tight, as GDX is now at the intersection of two key trends.


GDX daily



GDX weekly



Summary

So, with Gold and Silver climbing for a third week, the related miners naturally followed. Yet.. a large part of the recent bounce is unquestionably due to weakness in the USD. If the USD can bounce just 1% next week/early August, the precious metals will be under renewed downward pressure.

Seen on the bigger weekly chart, GDX is clearly at a key intersection. Either its going to break up and away... or its going to roll back lower, and eventually take out the July low of $20.99.

Best guess?  Its really difficult to call.

I would however give a special highlight to copper, weekly



Copper had a powerfully bullish week, gaining a net 5.6% to $2.88. A test of the giant $3.00 threshold appears due in August.

If copper can break AND hold the $3.00 threshold, it will bode VERY bullish for Gold, Silver, and the related mining stocks.

Thursday, 27 July 2017

TWTR - broadly struggling

Whilst the main market settled very mixed, there was very powerful downside in Twitter (TWTR), settling -14.1% at $16.84. Short term rising trend is broken, along with the 50dma, further weakness to the 15/14s is due. Mid term outlook is for broad chop, as the company is no doubt looking to be bought out.


TWTR daily



TWTR weekly, 5yr



Summary

Corp' site: https://investor.twitterinc.com/results.cfm

Earnings slides: http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/AMDA-2F526X/4882174057x0x951001/30CD4C38-ED0B-4D4C-9F94-3E969E95D77B/2017_Q2_Earnings_Slides.pdf

Media: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/twitter-struggles-boost-monthly-user-110823800.html
--

Yours truly is a very frequent user of Twitter. Yet, like all other users, the service is free. Every time someone views one of my tweets it adds to server load, and is an expense to Twitter.

Its notable that most analysts are only looking for the mid/low teens, see: http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=twtr 
--


The technicals

In terms of price, its just plain ugly. Other than an initial rally from the IPO price of $26 in Nov'2013, to a peak of $74.73 in December, the stock has been broadly declining across four years. Considering the outlook for the main equity market (upside into spring 2018), its difficult to see Twitter breaking below the May 2016 low of $13.73. Instead, the stock will likely just broadly churn, until someone launches a takeover.
--

Outlook: an eventual buyer will likely appear, but its very difficult to see a bid coming any higher than $20.00. 

Wednesday, 26 July 2017

X - superb earnings

Whilst the main market closed moderately mixed, there was significant strength in US Steel (X), which settled +7.2% at $26.20, the best close since April 25th. Short term - choppy/weak, but mid term is extremely bullish. Next big target, the 200dma in the $28s. A grander move to $40 is viable by year end.


X daily



X monthly



Summary

*I'll refrain from covering the earnings... the data is out there, not least via the corp' site.
--

Recently, X achieved a few daily closes above gap resistance of the $24.00 threshold.

Earnings were unquestionably good, and the stock is already approaching the key 200dma. A monthly close above $28 will offer another grand challenge to attain a monthly close above multi-year resistance of the $40 threshold.

Any monthly closes >$40 will offer hyper-upside to at least $60.00.

I recognise that is a very long way up, but just reflect upon that X climbed from $6.04 in Jan'2016 to $40.69 in March 2017.
--

*today's settling black-fail candle at resistance is short term bearish, but still, its a powerful net daily gain, fully justified on good earnings.

Broader outlook: Powerfully bullish into 2018.

Tuesday, 25 July 2017

CAT - unquestionably good earnings

Whilst the main market saw moderate gains, there was significant upside in Caterpillar (CAT), which jumped on good earnings, settling +5.9% at $114.54. Short term... the stock is technically over-stretched. The mid term outlook is hyper bullish, not least if commodities can start broadly climbing.


CAT daily



CAT monthly



Summary

The April close above the $100 threshold was the ultimate technical achievement for the equity bulls. Having seen repeated failures since 2011.

As things are, CAT is set for a fourth consecutive net monthly gain, and is now 14.5% above what used to be multi-year resistance.. and will now act as core support.

The equity hyper bulls should be seeking the 125/130s by year end, with Copper >$3.00. If that occurs, then the 150/160s would be target in 2018.

*its notable the infamous Cramer was babbling about some institution (name unknown) that was touting CAT >$200 within 5 years.

... and if you believe CAT is >$200, then you should go buy a Dow 40k hat.

yours. bullish D10 dozers.

Monday, 24 July 2017

GE - ironically, few seem to care

Whilst the main market saw moderate weakness, there was further significant weakness in General Electric, which settled -1.8% at $25.43. As things are, GE is set for a fifth consecutive net monthly decline, the most bearish run since Sept'2011.


GE daily



GE monthly



Summary

Many things in this twisted casino bemuse me, not least how sometimes the mainstream will just ignore something rather obvious. In many cases it just seems to be a simple case of outright denial.

GE started the year on a weak note, settling January at $29.22. February and March saw moderate chop. There was a failed rally in April, with the month ending badly at $28.75. May saw sig' downside, with another failed rally to $29.22 in June - as the CEO - Immelt, announced he was leaving.

The June close of $27.01 confirmed the provisional bearish break of trend seen in May. Keep in mind, this trend extends back to the March 2009 low. It is a monstrously important trend, and yet... for some reason, most either don't notice... or at the very least, simply don't care.


Is GE an early warning of trouble for the broader US market?

Its certainly something that merits serious consideration, and again, its a wonder why hardly anyone out there seems to care. Next big support isn't until the low $22s, and that is a long way below current levels. Further, it'd represent a decline of around 30% from the July 2016 high of $31.97.

Outlook: near/mid term bearish.

Friday, 21 July 2017

GDX - a second weekly gain

With the precious metals climbing for a second week, the related miners followed. The ETF of GDX ended the week on a moderately positive note, settling +0.4% at $22.41, which made for a very significant net weekly gain of 2.8%. Near term outlook is shaky, as any rebound in the USD will put major renewed downward pressure on the metals and miners.

GDX daily



GDX weekly



Summary

First, lets be clear, a couple of net weekly gains does not negate the break of core rising trend. Indeed, price action in GDX remains just under old support - currently around $22.60.

Frankly, having seen sustained action under core support, the mid term outlook has to be bearish, unless GDX is trading above the June high of $23.86.

Gold itself is holding core trend - that stretches back to Dec'2015, but Silver remains seriously broken.

The one indirect bullish signal for gold/silver, and the related miners, is copper, which has recently seen a series of daily closes above the key $2.70 threshold.
--

Keep in mind, the USD has given the metals an extra boost this year, having cooled from the DXY 103s to the 93s. The precious metals will be under major renewed downward pressure on any USD bounce.

Thursday, 20 July 2017

F - a tenth consecutive daily gain

Whilst the main market settled moderately mixed, Ford (F) settled higher by 2 cents (0.2%) to $11.70. It was just a minor gain, but a very notable tenth consecutive net daily gain - the best run since early 2012. Earnings are due July 26th in pre-market.


F daily



F monthly



Summary

Suffice to add.. the past ten days have been rather impressive for Ford, and especially the past four days, all settling above the key 200dma.

Near term cooling seems probable, not least if the main market cools by around 1.5% to sp'2435. 

Mid term trend has been very bearish since the July 2014 high of $15.36. Things will turn bullish with price action >12.25 or so. From there... a run to the $15s, which is absolutely viable before year end.

Earnings are due next Wednesday morning... and that'll be something to watch!

Wednesday, 19 July 2017

IBM - big blue is big red

Whilst the main market broke another set of new index historic highs, there was sig' weakness in International Business Machines (IBM), which settled -4.2% at $147.53. The Oct'2016 low of $143.91 is a prime target before end month. Mid term outlook is bearish, whilst long term.. still bullish.


IBM daily



IBM monthly



Summary

Suffice to say... IBM is a company that I realise most of you care little for. Many of you have probably never directly traded it, and I can understand that. Other than earnings, the stock receives very little attention.. whether from traders, or the media hacks of clown finance TV.

With a forward PE in the 11s, a dividend yield of around 4.0%, I've no doubt the 'big/serious' money is picking up IBM at these levels. I can't blame them. Its slow and boring, but the valuation is unquestionably attractive.

Bullish long term... especially if the $143s hold into early August.

Tuesday, 18 July 2017

NFLX - bullish stranger stocks

Whilst the main market saw a day of moderate swings, there was powerful upside in Netflix (NFLX), which settled +13.5% at $183.60. Near term outlook offers a little chop - not least if sp'2435/25, but broadly, the $200s are clearly coming.


NFLX daily



NFLX monthly



Summary

Headline EPS did actually miss by 1 cent, but the market didn't care, as subscription growth was rather superb.

If you 'generously' extrapolate to an annual EPS of around $1.50, that still makes for a stock with a PE well >100. On any basis.. that is crazy, but then its a crazy market, where capital is desperate to find growth/yield.

With a new historic high today, many recognise the stock is headed far... far higher.

RBC capital are just one of many who are seeking >$200


It can be expected that we'll see further upgrades for 2018/19 to the 250/300 zone before year end.

--

Yours truly has ZERO interest in chasing such a 'FANG' stock - on a pure valuation basis. That sure doesn't mean I don't see great value in the company, and the original content is some of the best ever produced...



Season two of Stranger Things is one 'entertainment' reason to stay alive until at least Halloween 2017.

Monday, 17 July 2017

APRN - the CEO remains on radio silent

Whilst the main market saw a day of minor chop, there was renewed powerful downside in Blue Apron (APRN), which settled -10.5% at $6.59. Near term outlook offers the $5s, as Mr Market has a profound contempt for this newly listed stock.


APRN, daily



Summary

There are many dubious issues surrounding this company, not least the issue of voting rights for shares...

Enjoy this little flashback story, when most thought the company could find interested buyers around $15 a share...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blue-apron-raise-587m-ipo-064042697.html
--

So... lets be clear, 30 million class A' shares (1 vote each)...  sold for $10....  $300 million, yet...another 157 million shares, but those have 10 votes each! Talk about crony capitalism!
--


As for the CEO...

see: https://twitter.com/mattsalz

The CEO remains on radio silent mode. Is that a requirement of the recent IPO ? I've heard nothing that suggest he has to remain mute on what is an absolutely disastrous IPO.


My questions to Salzberg...

1. Where are you hiding?
2. How could you possibly justify selling shares with grossly unbalanced voting rights?
3. How long until you ask the capital markets for more money, 3mths, 4, 5, or 6?

4. Do you ever aspire to make a profit, or do you follow the TSLA, NFLX, and AMZN business model?
5. How about selling Blue Apron to AMZN, I'm sure they could merge it quickly within their new subsidiary of Whole Foods?

6. Are you worried about any lawsuits from angry retail amateur 'investors' ?
--

Seriously, APRN has been one hell of a stock to follow, and its only seen 12 trading days. The psy' level of $5.00 would make for a viable short term floor before end month... but even then.. what kind of maniac would get involved in such a stock?

To be clear, yours truly likes the product/service, but its a loss making company, no dividends, and will surely need new capital before year end. Outlook has to be bearish.