Friday, 27 January 2017

TVIX, UVXY - a fourth weekly decline

With US equities breaking new historic highs, market volatility remained subdued. The 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY both saw net weekly declines of -16.1%. Near term outlook offers nothing to the equity bears/volatility bulls.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


First, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly decline of -8.3% .

As for TVIX and UVXY, it was a fourth consecutive net weekly decline. Indeed, this was the 10th week lower of the last 12.

UVXY recently saw a reverse split... and TVIX will no doubt follow at some point 'soon'.

As ever, holding such leveraged instruments overnight, across the weekend, or worse... across multiple weeks, rarely ends well, not least due to the problem of 'statistical decay'.

*yours truly has ZERO interest in being long-VIX for some months to come. Even if the equity market does see a correction of 4-5% in Feb/March... it will do little to kick the VIX higher. The key 20 threshold looks a tough challenge.