Friday, 4 August 2017

GDX - stuck at a key intersection

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a bearish note, settling -1.7% at $22.32, making for a net weekly decline of -2.6%. Near term outlook is bearish, not least as the USD is in the early phase of a multi-week bounce. Mid term outlook is extremely borderline, with indirect 'hope' via copper near $3.00.

GDX daily

GDX weekly


With the USD ending the week with a moderate bounce, the precious metals were pressured lower, and that  dragged the related miners lower.

Seen on the bigger weekly chart, you can see how GDX has seen a clear rejection as what is an interesting intersection of two key trend lines.

The cautious mining bulls will leave the miners alone unless a break >$23.09... or a more decisive $24.00. Things would turn exceptionally bearish if the July low of $20.99 is taken out, with Gold <$1170.

The one indirect bullish aspect for Gold/Silver, and the related miners is copper...

Copper, weekly

Based on decades of price action, the three metals do broadly trade together. If copper can attain a monthly close >$3.00, it will be highly suggestive that Gold and Silver will eventually catch up. For the gold bugs out there... copper really is something to keep an eye on for the rest of the summer.