Friday, 10 August 2018

Miners settle under support

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a bearish note, -0.7% at $20.56, and that made for a net weekly decline of -2.8%. Mid term outlook is bearish, as key support has been settled under.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

A fifth consecutive net weekly decline for the miners, pressured by ongoing weakness in the metals.

The daily/weekly close under multi-year support is decisive, and offers much lower levels into year end. Soft target is the Dec'2016 low of $18.43. A weekly/monthly close <18.00 would be decisive, and threaten a full retrace back to the Jan'2016 low of $12.27.

The bold and cautious miner bulls will arguably leave the sector well alone.

Right now, I would only turn bullish with Gold >1400 or from 900/875.... whichever comes first. I accept the latter is a long way down, but the current m/t trend in gold is unquestionably downward.

Friday, 27 July 2018

Miners near key support

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a bearish note, -0.3% at $21.32, and that made for a net weekly decline of -2.1%. Near term outlook is bearish, as Gold has failed to hold the key Dec'2017 low.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

With gold cooling for a third week, the related miners naturally followed. GDX is nearing core price threshold of $21.00. Any weekly closes <21.00 would be exceptionally bearish. The fact gold recently failed to hold multiple aspects of support is suggestive that GDX will soon be sustainably trading <21.00.
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Two key miners...

Newmont Mining (NEM), monthly


Currently lower for a third month, but holding well above the 2017 lows.
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Barrick Gold (ABX), monthly


Currently -14.5%, having broken below the 2017 lows. Lower wedge/trend support around $10.50.
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NEM and ABX are the two biggest components of the ETF of GDX. They are both superb miners, but with gold, silver, and copper, short/mid term bearish, the cautious will leave both stocks and the sector well alone.

Friday, 13 July 2018

Rough week for miners

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a bearish note, -0.8% at $21.96, and that made for a net weekly decline of -2.9%. Near term outlook is bearish, as Gold has failed to hold the key Dec'2017 low.


GDX weekly


GDX daily


Summary

With Gold unable to hold the Dec'2017 low of $1238.30, the miners look in serious trouble.

The weekly candle in GDX was of the bearish engulfing type, and that leans s/t bearish. Things will turn VERY bearish with any closes under $21.00, which isn't that far down.

Best miners: NEM and ABX (the two biggest components of GDX), but the cautious will leave the sector well alone, not least with ongoing weakness in gold, silver, and copper.

Friday, 6 July 2018

Miners resilient to gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a weak note, -0.3% at $22.61, but that still made for a net weekly gain of 1.3%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things will only turn decisively bullish for the miners, with Gold >$1400, and there is zero sign of that any time soon.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, I see the sector as highly problematic, as Gold this week came within 50cents of the critical Dec'2017 low of $1238.30. 

Note how GDX on Friday saw a reversal/cooling after filling the price gap. S/t bearish into next week.

More broadly, the miners have been stuck since early 2017. The more cautious will simply leave the sector alone, until a breakout... either side.

Friday, 29 June 2018

Miners remain broadly choppy

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a positive note, +1.7% at $22.31, but that still resulted in a net monthly decline of -0.1%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things would turn very bearish if Gold <1230, or bullish >1400.


GDX monthly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, whilst the week ended on a surprisingly positive note, it was really just another month of chop. Indeed, its now been around 18 months of pretty tight price action. The cautious will leave the sector alone, unless Gold breaks <1230... or >1400.

Best miners: Newmont Mining (NEM) and Barrick Gold (ABX), and both remain the two biggest components of GDX.

Friday, 22 June 2018

Miners still cooling with gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a significantly positive note, +1.2% at $22.18, but that still made for a net weekly decline of -0.2%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things will only turn decisively bullish for the miners, with Gold >$1400, and there is zero sign of that any time soon.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, the past few months have seen very tight price action. The near/mid term outlook for the gold miners is of course primarily dependent upon gold. Gold itself is struggling, approaching the critical Dec'2017 low of $1238. The cautious will leave the sector well alone until a break in Gold >1400 or <1230.

Friday, 15 June 2018

Miners cool with gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a significantly weak note, -1.9% at $22.23, making for a net weekly decline of -0.6%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things will only turn decisively bullish for the miners, with Gold >$1400, and there is zero sign of that any time soon.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

A pretty bearish end to the week for the gold miners, but broadly... its still the same trading range since early 2017. The two biggest components of GDX...

Newmont Mining (NEM)


Newmont is currently net lower by -1.0% at $38.40. The stock has been broadly choppy since late January, notably holding just above the key 10MA.
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Barrick Gold (ABX)


Barrick Gold is struggling, currently -2.9% at $12.81, unable to climb back above the key 10MA. It could be argued price structure since mid 2016 is one giant bullish wedge/pennant. However, that is perhaps being overly bullish, as the key commodity of gold is showing zero sign of breaking above the decisive $1400 threshold.
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Suffice to add, both stocks are superb companies. Of the two, Newmont is technically far stronger, but fundamentally, both are pretty equal. The sector is currently highly problematic, as gold remains broadly choppy, and leaning s/t bearish. The cautious will leave the sector alone until Gold >$1400.

Things would turn exceptionally bearish for the miners if Gold breaks under the Dec'2017 low of $1238. The Friday close of $1278.50 is rather close to that critical low.

Friday, 25 May 2018

Miners climb with gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a weak note, -1.5% at $22.31, but that still resulted in a net weekly gain of 0.5%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things will only turn  decisively bullish for the miners, with Gold >$1400.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, a moderately net weekly gain, but broadly... it remains chop since early 2017.

Partly based on m/t bullish trends in copper and oil, I'm still leaning on an eventual bullish breakout in gold >$1400. For now though, there is ZERO sign of that happening any time soon, not least with a stronger USD, and rising bond yields. The more cautious will leave the mining sector alone until gold >1400 and/or GDX >26s.

Arguably, the two best miners...

Newmont Mining (NEM)



Barrick Gold (ABX)


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NEM and ABX remain the two biggest components of GDX. I like both, but the latter remains technically m/t bullish, until it clears the >16.00.

Friday, 18 May 2018

Miners knocked by gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a muted note, u/c at $22.19, but that still resulted in a net weekly decline of -3.0%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things would turn bullish if Gold >$1400, or exceptionally bearish if <$1230.

GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, gold is looking increasingly problematic, pressured via a stronger USD and higher bond yields/interest rates. The miners have been broadly stuck since early 2017, and for now... are showing little sign of exiting this unusually long trading range.

Friday, 11 May 2018

Miners higher with gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a slightly weak note, -0.3% at $22.88, but that still resulted in a net weekly gain of +1.0%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, it was a choppy week for the gold miners, but managing a sig' net weekly gain, clearly helped by strength in gold and silver.

More broadly, seen via the weekly candle chart, the miners are just continuing to broadly churn since early 2017. Things only turn decisive above the Feb'2017 high of $25.50
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Two key miners....

Newmont Mining (NEM)



Barrick Gold (ABX)


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Both are fundamentally sound, but ABX is clearly technically weaker.

*NEM and ABX are the two biggest components of the ETF of GDX, and there is no reason to see that changing any time soon.

Monday, 30 April 2018

Net April gains

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a weak note, -2.0% at $22.28, but that still resulted in a net monthly gain of +1.3%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX monthly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, a bearish end to the month, but the miners did manage a sig' net monthly gain. More broadly, its all been chop since early 2017. An eventual upside break appears very probable.
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The two biggest components of GDX are NEM and ABX

Newmont Mining, monthly


Newmont saw the fifth net monthly gain of the past six months, is technically m/t bullish, with soft target of the 45s, and secondary of 52/53s.
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Barrick Gold, monthly


A second consecutive monthly gain for Barrick Gold, but still technically m/t bearish, and that only changes if >16.00 from May 1st onward.
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Both stocks have seen recent good earnings. NEM is technically superior, but both look fine for the mid term. 

Friday, 20 April 2018

Miners cooling with gold

With Gold settling moderately lower for the week, the related miners followed. The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a significantly negative note, -1.5% at $22.71, resulting in a net weekly decline of -0.8%. Near term outlook is offering renewed upside. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add... short term a little mixed, not least as Gold is yet to break above the decisive $1400 threshold. Most favoured miners: Newmont Mining (NEM), and Barrick Gold (ABX).

Thursday, 29 March 2018

GDX - net March gains

With Gold and Silver net lower for the week, the related miners followed. The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week net lower by -0.6% at $21.98, but that still resulted in a net monthly gain of +2.9%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX monthly



GDX weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, a moderate net weekly decline, but a sig' net monthly gain. However, we're still just broadly choppy since early 2017. Until Gold can break above the $1400 threshold, there is little reason to expect the gold/silver miners to be able to manage a sustained/significant upward climb.
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Key miners....

Newmont Mining (NEM), monthly


A net monthly gain of 2.6% to $39.07. The stock is broadly holding the breakout (from a bullish pennant) seen in January. Cyclically flat lining. Soft target is the summer 2016 high of the $45s.
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Barrick Gold (ABX), monthly


A net monthly gain of 8.1% to $12.45, but still holding within a m/t bearish trend. From April onward, things only turn bullish >16.50, and that is a long way up. Cyclically low.

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NEM and ABX are the two biggest components of GDX. I like both miners, of the two, I favour NEM. Both have recently seen mid term call buying. The more cautious will wait for Gold >1400s and/or GDX >26s. The bold could buy, but with stops at the recent lows.

Friday, 23 March 2018

GDX - significant gains with gold

With Gold and Silver net higher for the week, the related miners followed. The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a very positive note, +2.9% at $22.12, resulting in a net weekly gain of +3.2%. Near term outlook is offering further upside. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

The mining stocks are naturally continuing to closely track gold and silver. Broadly, the miners are just churning, as gold has been, since early 2017. Things would become provisionally interesting if GDX can break above the 50/200dmas, currently in the mid $22s. Things turn decisively bullish above the $26s.
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Most favoured miners...

Newmont Mining, monthly


Newmont is fundamentally and technically the strongest of the gold miners. Indeed, its currently the biggest component of GDX (Barrick Gold is the second). A break above the $42s would be decisive, and offer a fast move to the 2016 high in the $45s. Above that, its open air to the 52/53s.



Barrick Gold, monthly


With four trading days left of March, ABX is net higher by a very powerful 8.5%. Cyclically, we're on the very low side, and due another multi-month up wave. The stock will remain technically bearish until >17s, although that number is lower with each month. The bold will be buying, with a stop no lower than the recent low of $11.07.

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To be clear, I really like the miners, but the more cautious will leave the sector alone until Gold >$1400, and/or GDX >26s. 

Friday, 16 March 2018

GDX - broadly choppy

The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a fractionally weak note, -0.1% at $21.43, resulting in a net weekly decline of -0.6%. Near term outlook is offering renewed upside. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add... choppy with gold and silver. The bold could buy with a stop at the recent low from the support zone. The more cautious will leave well alone until Gold >$1400 and/or GDX >26s.

Friday, 9 March 2018

GDX - minor weekly gains

The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a moderately weak note, -0.4% at $21.57, but still resulting in a net weekly gain of +0.4%. Near term outlook is offering renewed upside. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, another choppy week for the gold miners. 

I remain inclined to an eventual big upward push in Gold and Silver. If correct, the related mining stocks will push monstrously higher. For now though.... its all just chop. The cautious will arguably leave the sector alone until Gold >$1400s, and/or GDX >26s. The bold could buy.. but with a tight stop around the recent low at key support.

Friday, 2 March 2018

GDX - a second week of cooling

The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a moderately weak note, -0.4% at $21.49, resulting in a second consecutive net weekly decline of -2.2%. Near term outlook is offering renewed upside. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Not a great day or week for the gold miners. Indeed, the sector ETF of GDX isn't far from the recent hyper spike low of $20.83. For now... its all to be treated as 'broad chop since early 2017'.

Arguably, the bold will be buying with a stop around core support. whilst the cautious will simply wait to chase when Gold >$1400s and/or GDX >26s.

To be clear, yours truly is seeking an eventual upward break in Gold (and Silver). If correct, the related miners could be expected to naturally follow.
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Notable miners...

Newmont Mining (NEM), monthly


Newmont is performing far better than the sector, having seen a major bullish breakout in January. For now... its moderately choppy, as Gold is broadly churning in the $1300s.
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Barrick Gold (ABX), monthly


Barrick Gold broke a new multi-month low of $11.07 this week. Technically, there isn't any support until psy' $10.00. Cyclically, we're on the moderately low side, but there is currently ZERO sign of a floor/turn.
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To be clear, I like both Newmont and Barrick Gold, but the more cautious will simply wait to get involved when Gold breaks above the very important $1400 threshold.