Friday, 22 June 2018

Miners still cooling with gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a significantly positive note, +1.2% at $22.18, but that still made for a net weekly decline of -0.2%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things will only turn decisively bullish for the miners, with Gold >$1400, and there is zero sign of that any time soon.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, the past few months have seen very tight price action. The near/mid term outlook for the gold miners is of course primarily dependent upon gold. Gold itself is struggling, approaching the critical Dec'2017 low of $1238. The cautious will leave the sector well alone until a break in Gold >1400 or <1230.

Friday, 15 June 2018

Miners cool with gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a significantly weak note, -1.9% at $22.23, making for a net weekly decline of -0.6%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things will only turn decisively bullish for the miners, with Gold >$1400, and there is zero sign of that any time soon.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

A pretty bearish end to the week for the gold miners, but broadly... its still the same trading range since early 2017. The two biggest components of GDX...

Newmont Mining (NEM)


Newmont is currently net lower by -1.0% at $38.40. The stock has been broadly choppy since late January, notably holding just above the key 10MA.
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Barrick Gold (ABX)


Barrick Gold is struggling, currently -2.9% at $12.81, unable to climb back above the key 10MA. It could be argued price structure since mid 2016 is one giant bullish wedge/pennant. However, that is perhaps being overly bullish, as the key commodity of gold is showing zero sign of breaking above the decisive $1400 threshold.
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Suffice to add, both stocks are superb companies. Of the two, Newmont is technically far stronger, but fundamentally, both are pretty equal. The sector is currently highly problematic, as gold remains broadly choppy, and leaning s/t bearish. The cautious will leave the sector alone until Gold >$1400.

Things would turn exceptionally bearish for the miners if Gold breaks under the Dec'2017 low of $1238. The Friday close of $1278.50 is rather close to that critical low.

Friday, 25 May 2018

Miners climb with gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a weak note, -1.5% at $22.31, but that still resulted in a net weekly gain of 0.5%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things will only turn  decisively bullish for the miners, with Gold >$1400.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, a moderately net weekly gain, but broadly... it remains chop since early 2017.

Partly based on m/t bullish trends in copper and oil, I'm still leaning on an eventual bullish breakout in gold >$1400. For now though, there is ZERO sign of that happening any time soon, not least with a stronger USD, and rising bond yields. The more cautious will leave the mining sector alone until gold >1400 and/or GDX >26s.

Arguably, the two best miners...

Newmont Mining (NEM)



Barrick Gold (ABX)


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NEM and ABX remain the two biggest components of GDX. I like both, but the latter remains technically m/t bullish, until it clears the >16.00.

Friday, 18 May 2018

Miners knocked by gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a muted note, u/c at $22.19, but that still resulted in a net weekly decline of -3.0%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things would turn bullish if Gold >$1400, or exceptionally bearish if <$1230.

GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, gold is looking increasingly problematic, pressured via a stronger USD and higher bond yields/interest rates. The miners have been broadly stuck since early 2017, and for now... are showing little sign of exiting this unusually long trading range.

Friday, 11 May 2018

Miners higher with gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a slightly weak note, -0.3% at $22.88, but that still resulted in a net weekly gain of +1.0%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, it was a choppy week for the gold miners, but managing a sig' net weekly gain, clearly helped by strength in gold and silver.

More broadly, seen via the weekly candle chart, the miners are just continuing to broadly churn since early 2017. Things only turn decisive above the Feb'2017 high of $25.50
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Two key miners....

Newmont Mining (NEM)



Barrick Gold (ABX)


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Both are fundamentally sound, but ABX is clearly technically weaker.

*NEM and ABX are the two biggest components of the ETF of GDX, and there is no reason to see that changing any time soon.

Monday, 30 April 2018

Net April gains

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a weak note, -2.0% at $22.28, but that still resulted in a net monthly gain of +1.3%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX monthly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, a bearish end to the month, but the miners did manage a sig' net monthly gain. More broadly, its all been chop since early 2017. An eventual upside break appears very probable.
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The two biggest components of GDX are NEM and ABX

Newmont Mining, monthly


Newmont saw the fifth net monthly gain of the past six months, is technically m/t bullish, with soft target of the 45s, and secondary of 52/53s.
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Barrick Gold, monthly


A second consecutive monthly gain for Barrick Gold, but still technically m/t bearish, and that only changes if >16.00 from May 1st onward.
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Both stocks have seen recent good earnings. NEM is technically superior, but both look fine for the mid term. 

Friday, 20 April 2018

Miners cooling with gold

With Gold settling moderately lower for the week, the related miners followed. The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a significantly negative note, -1.5% at $22.71, resulting in a net weekly decline of -0.8%. Near term outlook is offering renewed upside. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add... short term a little mixed, not least as Gold is yet to break above the decisive $1400 threshold. Most favoured miners: Newmont Mining (NEM), and Barrick Gold (ABX).

Thursday, 29 March 2018

GDX - net March gains

With Gold and Silver net lower for the week, the related miners followed. The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week net lower by -0.6% at $21.98, but that still resulted in a net monthly gain of +2.9%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX monthly



GDX weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, a moderate net weekly decline, but a sig' net monthly gain. However, we're still just broadly choppy since early 2017. Until Gold can break above the $1400 threshold, there is little reason to expect the gold/silver miners to be able to manage a sustained/significant upward climb.
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Key miners....

Newmont Mining (NEM), monthly


A net monthly gain of 2.6% to $39.07. The stock is broadly holding the breakout (from a bullish pennant) seen in January. Cyclically flat lining. Soft target is the summer 2016 high of the $45s.
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Barrick Gold (ABX), monthly


A net monthly gain of 8.1% to $12.45, but still holding within a m/t bearish trend. From April onward, things only turn bullish >16.50, and that is a long way up. Cyclically low.

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NEM and ABX are the two biggest components of GDX. I like both miners, of the two, I favour NEM. Both have recently seen mid term call buying. The more cautious will wait for Gold >1400s and/or GDX >26s. The bold could buy, but with stops at the recent lows.

Friday, 23 March 2018

GDX - significant gains with gold

With Gold and Silver net higher for the week, the related miners followed. The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a very positive note, +2.9% at $22.12, resulting in a net weekly gain of +3.2%. Near term outlook is offering further upside. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

The mining stocks are naturally continuing to closely track gold and silver. Broadly, the miners are just churning, as gold has been, since early 2017. Things would become provisionally interesting if GDX can break above the 50/200dmas, currently in the mid $22s. Things turn decisively bullish above the $26s.
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Most favoured miners...

Newmont Mining, monthly


Newmont is fundamentally and technically the strongest of the gold miners. Indeed, its currently the biggest component of GDX (Barrick Gold is the second). A break above the $42s would be decisive, and offer a fast move to the 2016 high in the $45s. Above that, its open air to the 52/53s.



Barrick Gold, monthly


With four trading days left of March, ABX is net higher by a very powerful 8.5%. Cyclically, we're on the very low side, and due another multi-month up wave. The stock will remain technically bearish until >17s, although that number is lower with each month. The bold will be buying, with a stop no lower than the recent low of $11.07.

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To be clear, I really like the miners, but the more cautious will leave the sector alone until Gold >$1400, and/or GDX >26s. 

Friday, 16 March 2018

GDX - broadly choppy

The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a fractionally weak note, -0.1% at $21.43, resulting in a net weekly decline of -0.6%. Near term outlook is offering renewed upside. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add... choppy with gold and silver. The bold could buy with a stop at the recent low from the support zone. The more cautious will leave well alone until Gold >$1400 and/or GDX >26s.

Friday, 9 March 2018

GDX - minor weekly gains

The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a moderately weak note, -0.4% at $21.57, but still resulting in a net weekly gain of +0.4%. Near term outlook is offering renewed upside. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, another choppy week for the gold miners. 

I remain inclined to an eventual big upward push in Gold and Silver. If correct, the related mining stocks will push monstrously higher. For now though.... its all just chop. The cautious will arguably leave the sector alone until Gold >$1400s, and/or GDX >26s. The bold could buy.. but with a tight stop around the recent low at key support.

Friday, 2 March 2018

GDX - a second week of cooling

The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a moderately weak note, -0.4% at $21.49, resulting in a second consecutive net weekly decline of -2.2%. Near term outlook is offering renewed upside. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Not a great day or week for the gold miners. Indeed, the sector ETF of GDX isn't far from the recent hyper spike low of $20.83. For now... its all to be treated as 'broad chop since early 2017'.

Arguably, the bold will be buying with a stop around core support. whilst the cautious will simply wait to chase when Gold >$1400s and/or GDX >26s.

To be clear, yours truly is seeking an eventual upward break in Gold (and Silver). If correct, the related miners could be expected to naturally follow.
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Notable miners...

Newmont Mining (NEM), monthly


Newmont is performing far better than the sector, having seen a major bullish breakout in January. For now... its moderately choppy, as Gold is broadly churning in the $1300s.
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Barrick Gold (ABX), monthly


Barrick Gold broke a new multi-month low of $11.07 this week. Technically, there isn't any support until psy' $10.00. Cyclically, we're on the moderately low side, but there is currently ZERO sign of a floor/turn.
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To be clear, I like both Newmont and Barrick Gold, but the more cautious will simply wait to get involved when Gold breaks above the very important $1400 threshold.

Wednesday, 28 February 2018

X - an important monthly settlement

US Steel ended the month of February on a significantly weak note, settling -1.1% at $43.51, but that still resulted in a powerful net monthly gain of 16.5%. The monthly settlement above $40.00 is technically profoundly important, and bodes for a grander run to at least $60 (with intermediate psy'$50). Mid/long term bullish implications for the broader market .


X monthly



X daily



Summary

Suffice to add, X is one of my three key signal stocks, that I highlighted in my outlook for 2018.

see: http://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/2018/01/weekend-update-outlook-for-2018.html
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Early 2017 saw a failed attempt to achieve a monthly settlement >40, that failure saw the stock then implode to the $18s. The recovery since May 2017 has seen US Steel push to the $46s, partly helped via 'tariff chatter'.

The February settlement above $40.00 is profoundly important, not just for US Steel itself, nor sister stocks like MT, NUE, or AKS, but for the broader equity market.

I recognise some will disagree with that extrapolation, but X isn't the only stock I'm using to help project the broader market.

Recent earnings were good, and the outlook is superb. Bullish US Steel.

Friday, 23 February 2018

GDX - miners cooling with metals

The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a positive note, +1.1% at $21.97, but that still resulted in a net weekly decline of -2.4%. Near term outlook is offering renewed upside. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, its been a choppy few weeks. Price action from early 2017 has been broadly choppy. Things turn decisively bullish >26.00, or bearish <20.00. The former looks far more probable.

Yours truly continues to lean toward the inflationary outlook/scenario. Copper/WTIC are both m/t bullish, and gold/silver should eventually follow. If correct, the miners would no doubt follow.
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Two of the leading miners...

Barrick Gold (ABX), monthly


Recent earnings were mixed. Technically, short/mid term price action remains outright bearish. Its arguably empty air to psy' $10.00, which is around another 20% lower.
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Newmont Mining (NEM), monthly


Recent price action is choppy, but Newmont is far stronger than many miners - not least Barrick Gold.
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To be clear, I like both NEM and ABX for the long term. Notably, the two stocks are the biggest components of GDX. 

Yours, bullish Gold Rush

Thursday, 22 February 2018

CHK - surprisingly good earnings

Whilst the main market settled moderately mixed, there was notable strength in Chesapeake Energy (CHK), which settled higher by a very powerful 21.7% at $3.20. Q4 earnings were better than expected, and it gives hope this will be a survivor into the 2020s.


CHK daily



CHK monthly



Summary

First, see...

http://www.chk.com/Investors

Presentation download: http://www.chk.com/Documents/investors/Q4%202017%20Earnings%20Presentation.pdf
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Earnings were significantly better than most were expecting. Some details in the report offer hope for the future, but there are issues with long term debt - see page 9 of the presentation. We're in a rising rate environment, and CHK will have to at least roll that debt out, and that will be at higher rates.The company clearly needs sustainably higher WTIC/Nat' gas prices.


Technically...

Its been a horror story. The stock became stuck at resistance in summer 2014, and with energy prices imploding, the stock cooled from $29.37 to $1.50 in Feb' 2016. Since then, a push to the $8s, but recent cooling to $2.53, as Nat' gas prices swung from $3.63 to $2.53. The stock is clearly mid/long term bearish.


Q. Do I like the stock?

CHK does look like it will be a survivor, but I strongly favour the quartet of APC, PSX, LNG, and PBR.

Friday, 16 February 2018

GDX - miners back on the rise

The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a negative note -2.1% at $22.51, but that still resulted in a net weekly gain of 3.8%. Near term outlook is offering further upside. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, a positive week for the precious metals of gold and silver, and that naturally saw the related mining stocks follow upward. Broadly though, price action remains range bound from early 2017.

For things to turn decisively bullish, GDX >26s, or bearish <$20. The former still looks due, as Gold is awfully close to the key $1400 threshold.
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Two of the most important miners, and very representative of the sector...

Barrick Gold, monthly



Newmont Mining, monthly


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Both are soundly based, and look good for the mid/long term. Clearly, Newmont is technically stronger, having already seen a bullish breakout in January.
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