Friday, 20 April 2018

Miners cooling with gold

With Gold settling moderately lower for the week, the related miners followed. The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a significantly negative note, -1.5% at $22.71, resulting in a net weekly decline of -0.8%. Near term outlook is offering renewed upside. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add... short term a little mixed, not least as Gold is yet to break above the decisive $1400 threshold. Most favoured miners: Newmont Mining (NEM), and Barrick Gold (ABX).

Thursday, 29 March 2018

GDX - net March gains

With Gold and Silver net lower for the week, the related miners followed. The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week net lower by -0.6% at $21.98, but that still resulted in a net monthly gain of +2.9%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX monthly



GDX weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, a moderate net weekly decline, but a sig' net monthly gain. However, we're still just broadly choppy since early 2017. Until Gold can break above the $1400 threshold, there is little reason to expect the gold/silver miners to be able to manage a sustained/significant upward climb.
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Key miners....

Newmont Mining (NEM), monthly


A net monthly gain of 2.6% to $39.07. The stock is broadly holding the breakout (from a bullish pennant) seen in January. Cyclically flat lining. Soft target is the summer 2016 high of the $45s.
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Barrick Gold (ABX), monthly


A net monthly gain of 8.1% to $12.45, but still holding within a m/t bearish trend. From April onward, things only turn bullish >16.50, and that is a long way up. Cyclically low.

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NEM and ABX are the two biggest components of GDX. I like both miners, of the two, I favour NEM. Both have recently seen mid term call buying. The more cautious will wait for Gold >1400s and/or GDX >26s. The bold could buy, but with stops at the recent lows.

Friday, 23 March 2018

GDX - significant gains with gold

With Gold and Silver net higher for the week, the related miners followed. The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a very positive note, +2.9% at $22.12, resulting in a net weekly gain of +3.2%. Near term outlook is offering further upside. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

The mining stocks are naturally continuing to closely track gold and silver. Broadly, the miners are just churning, as gold has been, since early 2017. Things would become provisionally interesting if GDX can break above the 50/200dmas, currently in the mid $22s. Things turn decisively bullish above the $26s.
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Most favoured miners...

Newmont Mining, monthly


Newmont is fundamentally and technically the strongest of the gold miners. Indeed, its currently the biggest component of GDX (Barrick Gold is the second). A break above the $42s would be decisive, and offer a fast move to the 2016 high in the $45s. Above that, its open air to the 52/53s.



Barrick Gold, monthly


With four trading days left of March, ABX is net higher by a very powerful 8.5%. Cyclically, we're on the very low side, and due another multi-month up wave. The stock will remain technically bearish until >17s, although that number is lower with each month. The bold will be buying, with a stop no lower than the recent low of $11.07.

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To be clear, I really like the miners, but the more cautious will leave the sector alone until Gold >$1400, and/or GDX >26s. 

Friday, 16 March 2018

GDX - broadly choppy

The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a fractionally weak note, -0.1% at $21.43, resulting in a net weekly decline of -0.6%. Near term outlook is offering renewed upside. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add... choppy with gold and silver. The bold could buy with a stop at the recent low from the support zone. The more cautious will leave well alone until Gold >$1400 and/or GDX >26s.

Friday, 9 March 2018

GDX - minor weekly gains

The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a moderately weak note, -0.4% at $21.57, but still resulting in a net weekly gain of +0.4%. Near term outlook is offering renewed upside. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, another choppy week for the gold miners. 

I remain inclined to an eventual big upward push in Gold and Silver. If correct, the related mining stocks will push monstrously higher. For now though.... its all just chop. The cautious will arguably leave the sector alone until Gold >$1400s, and/or GDX >26s. The bold could buy.. but with a tight stop around the recent low at key support.

Friday, 2 March 2018

GDX - a second week of cooling

The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a moderately weak note, -0.4% at $21.49, resulting in a second consecutive net weekly decline of -2.2%. Near term outlook is offering renewed upside. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Not a great day or week for the gold miners. Indeed, the sector ETF of GDX isn't far from the recent hyper spike low of $20.83. For now... its all to be treated as 'broad chop since early 2017'.

Arguably, the bold will be buying with a stop around core support. whilst the cautious will simply wait to chase when Gold >$1400s and/or GDX >26s.

To be clear, yours truly is seeking an eventual upward break in Gold (and Silver). If correct, the related miners could be expected to naturally follow.
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Notable miners...

Newmont Mining (NEM), monthly


Newmont is performing far better than the sector, having seen a major bullish breakout in January. For now... its moderately choppy, as Gold is broadly churning in the $1300s.
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Barrick Gold (ABX), monthly


Barrick Gold broke a new multi-month low of $11.07 this week. Technically, there isn't any support until psy' $10.00. Cyclically, we're on the moderately low side, but there is currently ZERO sign of a floor/turn.
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To be clear, I like both Newmont and Barrick Gold, but the more cautious will simply wait to get involved when Gold breaks above the very important $1400 threshold.

Wednesday, 28 February 2018

X - an important monthly settlement

US Steel ended the month of February on a significantly weak note, settling -1.1% at $43.51, but that still resulted in a powerful net monthly gain of 16.5%. The monthly settlement above $40.00 is technically profoundly important, and bodes for a grander run to at least $60 (with intermediate psy'$50). Mid/long term bullish implications for the broader market .


X monthly



X daily



Summary

Suffice to add, X is one of my three key signal stocks, that I highlighted in my outlook for 2018.

see: http://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/2018/01/weekend-update-outlook-for-2018.html
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Early 2017 saw a failed attempt to achieve a monthly settlement >40, that failure saw the stock then implode to the $18s. The recovery since May 2017 has seen US Steel push to the $46s, partly helped via 'tariff chatter'.

The February settlement above $40.00 is profoundly important, not just for US Steel itself, nor sister stocks like MT, NUE, or AKS, but for the broader equity market.

I recognise some will disagree with that extrapolation, but X isn't the only stock I'm using to help project the broader market.

Recent earnings were good, and the outlook is superb. Bullish US Steel.

Friday, 23 February 2018

GDX - miners cooling with metals

The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a positive note, +1.1% at $21.97, but that still resulted in a net weekly decline of -2.4%. Near term outlook is offering renewed upside. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, its been a choppy few weeks. Price action from early 2017 has been broadly choppy. Things turn decisively bullish >26.00, or bearish <20.00. The former looks far more probable.

Yours truly continues to lean toward the inflationary outlook/scenario. Copper/WTIC are both m/t bullish, and gold/silver should eventually follow. If correct, the miners would no doubt follow.
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Two of the leading miners...

Barrick Gold (ABX), monthly


Recent earnings were mixed. Technically, short/mid term price action remains outright bearish. Its arguably empty air to psy' $10.00, which is around another 20% lower.
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Newmont Mining (NEM), monthly


Recent price action is choppy, but Newmont is far stronger than many miners - not least Barrick Gold.
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To be clear, I like both NEM and ABX for the long term. Notably, the two stocks are the biggest components of GDX. 

Yours, bullish Gold Rush

Thursday, 22 February 2018

CHK - surprisingly good earnings

Whilst the main market settled moderately mixed, there was notable strength in Chesapeake Energy (CHK), which settled higher by a very powerful 21.7% at $3.20. Q4 earnings were better than expected, and it gives hope this will be a survivor into the 2020s.


CHK daily



CHK monthly



Summary

First, see...

http://www.chk.com/Investors

Presentation download: http://www.chk.com/Documents/investors/Q4%202017%20Earnings%20Presentation.pdf
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Earnings were significantly better than most were expecting. Some details in the report offer hope for the future, but there are issues with long term debt - see page 9 of the presentation. We're in a rising rate environment, and CHK will have to at least roll that debt out, and that will be at higher rates.The company clearly needs sustainably higher WTIC/Nat' gas prices.


Technically...

Its been a horror story. The stock became stuck at resistance in summer 2014, and with energy prices imploding, the stock cooled from $29.37 to $1.50 in Feb' 2016. Since then, a push to the $8s, but recent cooling to $2.53, as Nat' gas prices swung from $3.63 to $2.53. The stock is clearly mid/long term bearish.


Q. Do I like the stock?

CHK does look like it will be a survivor, but I strongly favour the quartet of APC, PSX, LNG, and PBR.

Friday, 16 February 2018

GDX - miners back on the rise

The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a negative note -2.1% at $22.51, but that still resulted in a net weekly gain of 3.8%. Near term outlook is offering further upside. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, a positive week for the precious metals of gold and silver, and that naturally saw the related mining stocks follow upward. Broadly though, price action remains range bound from early 2017.

For things to turn decisively bullish, GDX >26s, or bearish <$20. The former still looks due, as Gold is awfully close to the key $1400 threshold.
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Two of the most important miners, and very representative of the sector...

Barrick Gold, monthly



Newmont Mining, monthly


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Both are soundly based, and look good for the mid/long term. Clearly, Newmont is technically stronger, having already seen a bullish breakout in January.
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Friday, 9 February 2018

GDX - a second week lower

The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week u/c at $21.68, resulting in a second consecutive net weekly decline of -5.4%. Near term outlook is offering a bounce. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX, daily



Summary

Special highlight: 5min...


With the main US market hyper spiking from sp'2532 to settle at 2619, even the gold miners caught a bid, with GDX soaring from $20.83 to settle u/c at $21.68.

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The miners were under major pressure this week, not least via the broader equity market, which saw the most bearish price action in some years. Notably, gold failed to catch any 'fear bid' to offset the main market pressure.

Broadly, the gold miners have just been trading sideways since early 2017. The cautious will just wait for a decisive break >26.00s, which would offer a fast run to challenge the summer 2016 high of $31.70. The bold would be buying at current levels, but with a super tight trading stop. Any sustained price action <$21.00 would merit alarm bells.

Friday, 2 February 2018

GDX - a major weekly decline

The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a very negative note, -3.3% at $22.91, resulting in a net weekly decline of -5.9%. Near term outlook is choppy. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, with gold and silver on the slide, the miners naturally followed.

Much like gold, price action in the miners has been broadly choppy since early 2017. Things would turn decisively bullish >26... or bearish <20. Yours truly is leaning on an eventual upward break.

Special mention: Newmont Mining (NEM), monthly


Newmont saw a decisive bullish breakout in January, and is indirectly supportive to the notion that the rest of the sector will eventually follow this spring. Broader price structure is a giant bullish pennant, and that was indeed provisionally confirmed with the January close of $40.51.

Thursday, 1 February 2018

X - selling lower on good earnings

US Steel saw good earnings, but still settled lower for a third consecutive day, -2.1% at $36.61. S/t outlook is bearish to the 50dma around $35.00. The m/t outlook is hyper bullish to $60 (with intermediate psy' $50), based on an FPE in the 9s, within a broadly accelerating US/world economy.


X daily



X monthly



Summary

First...see...

http://www.ussteel.com/investors/reports-filings 

Especially useful is the presentation:

http://www.ussteel.com/sites/default/files/reports_filings/USS%20Earnings%20Call%20Slides%2C%20Remarks%20-%202017%204Q%2CFY.pdf
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Suffice to add, earnings were good, and the outlook is outright superb. With annual EPS set to be around $3.80, that brings the FPE down to the 9s.

Considering the accelerating US/world economy (at least into mid 2019), the outlook for US Steel is very positive.

Technically, the stock did notably fail to break AND hold above multi-year resistance in January. On balance, it should manage this in Feb' or March. Any monthly close >$40 will offer a grander run to (at least $60) within 9-18 months.

The hyper bulls (sp'4-5K) could start to target 100/115 in late 2019/2020.

Wednesday, 31 January 2018

GDX - still broadly choppy

The gold miners ended the month on a positive note, with the ETF of GDX settling +1.3% at $23.75, which made for a net monthly gain of 2.2%. Price action since early 2017 has been broad chop. Things only turn decisively bullish with the 26s, or bearish <20.


GDX monthly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add... I'm leaning to the broader bullish commodity outlook. Copper and WTIC are leading the way higher, and I see Gold and Silver (eventually) following upward.

If correct, we should see GDX break >$26.00, by late spring/early summer. From there, its technical empty air to challenge the summer 2016 high of $31.70.

My favourite miners remain Barrick Gold (ABX) and Newmont Mining (NEM).

Tuesday, 30 January 2018

UAL - upgraded by JPM

Whilst the main market settled significantly lower, there was notable strength in United Continental (UAL) which settled +1.9% at $67.01. JPM upgraded the stock to 'overweight', with a new p/t of $83. That isn't bold, considering the stock was trading in AH last week around 80/81.


UAL daily



UAL monthly



Summary

Suffice to note, last week's smack down was entirely unjustified, and its interesting to see someone from within the mainstream recognising realistic upside....




As things are, the stock is only fractionally net lower for the month. If the main market rebounds Wednesday, then UAL will manage a third consecutive net monthly gain. On balance, I think its likely.

Yours truly is m/t bullish to psy' $100. Again, considering the stock was trading at 80/81 just last week, $100 isn't bold by year end.

Friday, 26 January 2018

GDX - miners higher with metals

The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a positive note, +0.9% at $24.35, resulting in a net weekly gain of 3.0%. Near term outlook is bullish. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, the miners saw the sixth net weekly gain of the past seven weeks. This is rather impressive, with the miners matching gold and silver.

The cautious will wait to chase the miners until Gold >$1400s, and/or GDX >26.00s.
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Best miners (and the two biggest components of GDX): Barrick Gold (ABX) and Newmont Mining (NEM).

Some miners - such as NEM, have already seen a bullish breakout this month, and it gives some confidence that the broader sector will follow into the spring.


NEM, monthly


Price structure is a giant bullish pennant.. now provisionally confirmed. A target of $50.00 isn't that bold.

Wednesday, 24 January 2018

UAL - nose diving for no good reason

United Continental (UAL) saw fine earnings, but the stock had a very rough day, settling -11.4% at $69.05. Once again, there is mainstream chatter/concerns of a price war, not least as capacity is set to be increased. M/t bullish to psy' $100.


UAL daily



UAL monthly



Summary

I want to be clear about this...

Mr Market, 'they', or whatever you want to call it, is playing the same game it did Oct'19'th last year.

Talk of a 'price war', or concerns about 'higher capacity', have seen the algo-bots sell the stock hard.

Keep in mind, EPS was $1.40, slightly above market consensus of $1.34, and the stock initially jumped to the 80/81s. It was only with the conf' call that chatter about a price war and capacity saw the market sell the stock.

I consider this absolute NONSENSE, just like last October.

Earnings were good. The company correctly recognises higher capacity is needed across the mid term to grow the company. This is unquestionably bullish.

The only reason anyone should be bearish the airlines is if they believe the current multi-year economic growth cycle is at/close to concluding, ahead of a recession. For the record, I do NOT see a recession until at least latter half of 2019, if not 2020.
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Technically, the stock is clearly 'broken' in the short term, but it should build a floor soon, probably around the psy' $70 threshold. I'm m/t bullish to giant psy' $100, which is actually still viable before year end, but certainly by mid 2019.

I can understand if the more cautious will favour the 'less turbulant' Delta (DAL). Regardless, with an FPE in the 11/10s, I see UAL as bullish on both a value and growth perspective.

yours...  prefers trains.

Tuesday, 23 January 2018

NFLX - higher subs, higher prices

Netflix (NFLX) soared on 'fine' earnings, settling +10.0% at $250.29. Mr Market is especially inspired at the ongoing situation of higher subscriber numbers, whilst the company now has the pricing power to raise prices. M/t bullish, with next target of psy' $300. The hyper bulls will be seeking $500 within 18-30mths.


NFLX daily



NFLX monthly



Summary

Suffice to add, Netflix is doing exceptionally well. With the US/world economy growing, its not only able to build its subscriber base, but is now also able to periodically raise prices.

A few in the mainstream are starting to recognise that the company could double monthly subscription prices to around $20, and most customers would not cancel. I've no doubt the company will raise prices within late 2018/early 2019.

If you assume annual earnings of $2, that gives a PE of around 125. On any basis, that is ludicrous, but you could have argued that at any point in 2017, 16, 15, 14, or 2013. Higher subscriber numbers, higher prices... that IS bullish.

yours...    Bullish Jessica Jones, The Punisher, and Stranger Things.