Friday, 12 January 2018

GDX - continuing to climb

With gold higher for a fifth consecutive week, the miners followed. The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the day +2.6% at $24.00, resulting in a net weekly gain of 1.4%. Near term outlook is bullish. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.

GDX weekly

GDX daily


The miners are continuing to climb from early December, as gold and silver are also generally positive. More broadly, price action remains choppy. Things would turn decisively very bullish with the $26s, which would then offer a fast run to challenge the summer 2016 high of $31.70.

The bigger issue for the gold miners is whether gold can see a decisive break/hold above the $1400 threshold. If that is seen, the miners will really start to fly. For now, most individual miners are holding within m/t bearish trends, and that includes my most favoured miner of...

Barrick Gold (ABX), monthly

Price structure since summer 2016 is a viable giant bull pennant. For ABX, the m/t bearish trend would conclude with price action >$17.50. That looks out of range within the near term, but is certainly viable by late spring.

The bold could be buying, with a stop at the recent low of $13.28. The cautious will chase >17.50, although that number is lower with each month.