Tuesday, 30 April 2019

Miners falling with metals

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a fractionally positive note, settling +5cents (0.2%) at $20.89, but that still resulted in a net monthly decline of -6.8%. Things turn hyper bullish for the miners with Gold >$1400s and Silver >$21s. For now, that looks no closer than it had seemed five years ago.

GDX monthly


GDX, daily



Summary

With Gold and Silver cooling for a third consecutive month, the miners naturally followed. The net April decline is pretty ugly. Note the monthly 10MA at $20.52, a break under that would threaten May/June weakness to 18/17s... not least if the USD remains broadly strong.

Seen on a daily chart, it could be argued the miners are finding support on m/t rising trend. Cyclically, GDX is on the extremely low end, much like Aug'2018.

Of the sector, I would favour Barrick Gold (GOLD) and Newmont Goldcorp (NEM).

However, to be clear, the more cautious will leave the sector alone until Gold >$1400s and Silver >$21s. For now... it remains a case of broad chop since late 2016.

Thursday, 28 February 2019

Mixed February for the miners

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a weak note, settling -0.5% at $22.24, which made for net monthly decline of -2.0%. Things turn hyper bullish for the miners with Gold >$1400s.

GDX monthly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, even though GDX saw the first net monthly decline since Sept'2018, the miners did break a new multi-month high. The m/t trend is still leaning upward. Things turn decisive above the Feb'2017 high of $25.37.
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key miners...

Barrick Gold (GOLD)


A net monthly decline of -5.6% to $12.64. The market is not entirely happy with Barrick now seeking a merger with Newmont.
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Newmont Mining (NEM)


Newmont settled +1cent to $34.12. The company is still in the process of finalising a merger with Goldcorp (GG). That merger is itself in jeopardy due to the attempted merger from Barrick Gold.
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For the record, I don't want to see the two biggest miners merge. There is little to be gained, other than very minor reductions in management/admin costs.

Thursday, 31 January 2019

Miners climbing with Gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a positive note, settling +2.3% at $22.69, which made for a fourth consecutive net monthly gain of 7.6%. The January settlement back in the $22s bodes broadly bullish into the spring.

GDX monthly



GDX daily



Summary

A eighth consecutive net daily gain for the gold mining ETF of GDX, nearing next key price threshold of the $22.80s - the July 2018 high. It was a fourth consecutive monthly gain, notably above the key 10MA, and key price threshold of the $21s. Further upside to the $25s look due within 1-2 months.

Things will turn VERY bullish for the miners when Gold breaks >$1400.
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The two best miners (and biggest components of GDX)

Barrick Gold $GOLD


The merger with Randgold Resources is complete. Barrick Gold settled -1.1% at $13.39 for the month, but that was far above its early Jan' low of $11.52. Note the macd (green bar histogram) bullish cross, as broader price momentum favours the bulls for the first time since summer 2017. M/t bullish, soft target is psy'20, with secondary of $22.90.
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Newmont Mining $NEM


Newmont is in the process of merging with Goldcorp (GG), which should be complete by March/April. Price action was much like Barrick Gold, settling -1.6% at $34.11, but well above the Jan' low of $30.67. Price momentum should turn outright bullish in March/April. First big target is the 2018 high of $41.46.