Wednesday 31 May 2023

Miners cooling back

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net May decline of -$2.67 (7.9%) to $30.91, largely due to downside in gold and silver.

GDX, monthly

 


Summary

A new multi-month high of $36.26, but swinging lower to $30.11, and settling at $30.91. I would note the 10MA at $28.45, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked lower, but remains positive.

The central concern should be that any renewed downside in the main market would be a downward pressure on the miners. It doesn't necessarily mean they will be net lower, but it does mean they would be restrained to a considerable degree... even if gold/silver are net higher.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net May decline of -$6.38 (13.6%) to $40.55. I would note the monthly 10MA at $44.43, which was settled beneath. Monthly momentum ticked back downward, and remains negative. Support $36s, and then the March 2020 $29s.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 


A net May decline of -$2.05 (10.8%) to $16.88. I'd note the May candle is bearish engulfing, and suggestive of lower lows in June. Momentum ticked back lower, and will be prone to turning negative in June. Support $12s, and then the March 2020 low of $11.72.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 


A net May decline of +$1.28 (18.2%) to $5.77. The performance is truly lousy, both to the sector and main market. A sixth consecutive settlement below the 10MA. I'd note the March 2020 low of $4.15... as appears an eventuality.

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Of the three, yours truly favours Newmont, as it has less exposure to copper than Barrick.
As of end May 2023... I hold no miner stocks/options.  

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