GDX - rough month for the miners

Despite Gold only seeing a net monthly decline of $18 @ $1172, the mining stocks were having serious problems. The ETF of GDX settled June net lower by a very significant -9.3% @ $17.76. The Nov' 2014 low of $16.34 is set to be broken, as Gold looks due to renew falling toward the giant $1000 threshold.


GDX, monthly

GDX, daily

Summary

Suffice to add... holding to original targets...

Weakness in the precious metals.. with Gold $1000, Silver 12/10.. and that will massively impact the related mining stocks.

Further, if the USD resumes higher.. with a hyper-ramp to the DXY 120s into 2016.. that will put massive downward pressure on commodities... and again.. that is bearish miners.

TVIX, UVXY - finally... its time to soar

With the VIX building powerful gains across the day, the 2x bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw the biggest net daily gains in a very long time, settling higher by 33.5% and 32.5% respectively. Near term outlook offers the VIX 20/21 zone.. along with sp'2050s.


TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily

Summary

*first, an update on the VIX weekly cycle...

--
Finally... the 2x bullish VIX instruments saw a really impressive day.. but then.. it doesn't make up for the past few weeks.. never mind months of relentless decay.

Regardless of another few days of upside in the VIX...  equity bears trading the TVIX/UVXY.. or even VXX, need to be mindful that these up cycles never last for very long.

*I exited a VIX-long in the morning. Will be seeking to be involved in the VIX into the Sept/Oct period.

TVIX, UVXY - net weekly declines, despite a higher VIX

With equities seeing moderate net weekly declines, the VIX saw a net weekly gain of 1.6% @ 14.19. Yet, the 2x bullish lev' instruments of TVIX and UVXY still saw net weekly declines of -10.7% and -10.2% respectively. Volatility continues to remain subdued, but does look set to briefly jump >20, in the Aug-Oct' time frame.


TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily

Summary

*first, an update on the VIX weekly..

--
As for TVIX/UVXY, the net weekly declines are testament of the ongoing near total market complacency, along with the underlying problem of statistical decay in such leveraged instruments.

Of course TVIX/UVXY are not based on pure front month VIX, but on a number of VIX futures (2-3 months ahead I believe).

At some point in the late summer, TVIX/UVXY will likely soar... but the gains will be brief, and then the relentless decay will lead to new lows.
--

*I hold LONG VIX across the weekend (from 12.98).... seeking an exit in the 16/17s... if sp'2060s next week. That is really the best case though, and I sure don't expect VIX to break/hold the key 20 threshold in the near term.

NFLX - continues to unravel

Whilst the broader market closed moderately lower, there was significant weakness in Netflix (NFLX), which settled lower by -2.1% @ $664.43 (intra low $654.21), a considerable amount below the Wed' high of $706. Near/mid term outlook is for continued weakness. Primary target is $600, with secondary of 525/500 by Sept/Oct.


NFLX, daily

Summary

Little to add.

More than anything, NFLX is one stock to watch.. for pure entertainment reasons.
--

*I am long term bullish on NFLX, and would even consider going long in the $75/70 (split adjusted) zone this coming Sept/Oct.

NFLX - maxed out for the summer?

With the broader market seeing a key break lower, Netflix (NFLX) saw a rather strong opening reversal (intra high $706.24), and settling -0.3% @ $678.93. The mid term trend remains bullish, but today's announcement of a 7 for 1 stock split.. along with Icahn revealing he has sold his remaining stake would make for a rather classic top.


NFLX, daily

Summary

*To be clear.. I am bullish NFLX across the longer term, but today's two coincident events would indeed make for a rather appropriate top.
--

In terms of downside, if the broader market sees a sig' correction in the late summer, NFLX could trade as low as the giant $500 level. Of course, with the stock split (7 for 1).. that will equate to around $71... so... I would be looking for 'best case' downside in the 75/70 zone by Sept/Oct.
-

*I generally have little interest in trading any of the momo stocks, but unlike many of the others - not least AMZN, TWTR, at least NFLX is set to generate a profit. Right now, I would consider a NFLX long into 2016, from the mid/low 70s.

BAC - financials close to a breakout

Whilst the broader market closed with minor gains, there was notable strength in financial stocks. Bank of America (BAC), settled higher by 1.1% @ $17.67, the highest level since Jan 5'th. A monthly close in the $18s would be extremely bullish for BAC and the broader market.


BAC, daily

BAC, monthly

Summary

Little to add.

A strong day for BAC..  but still stuck the broader tight range from early 2014.

Best guess.. a monthly close in the $18s.. not until the autumn, when I expect interest rates to finally start rising.

AA - continuing to melt lower

Whilst the broader equity market saw a day of moderate gains, it was just another lousy day for Alcoa (AA), settling -1.5% @ $11.76. The primary late summer/early autumn target of $10/9 is already well within range.


AA, daily

AA, monthly

Summary

Little to add.

AA continues to see relentless downside... but should be able to level out somewhere in the 10/9s across the next few months.
-
*I will consider going long AA in the $9s.. this Sept/Oct. Right now, the 8/7s look unlikely, even if sp'1900s.

TVIX, UVXY - still struggling

Whilst the VIX saw a net weekly gain of 0.6% @ 13.86, the bullish 2x lev' instruments of TVIX and UVXY still struggled, with net weekly changes of -0.4% and +0.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers VIX 16/17s as the 'Greek situation' continues to spiral out of control.


TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily

Summary

*first, an update on the weekly VIX chart...

-
As for TVIX and UVXY, it remains the case that with the VIX still broadly subdued, both instruments are suffering from the usual decay problem.

My guess is that VIX 20s are still some weeks away.. and for now, TVIX/UVXY both look problematic for holds longer than a few days.
-

*I am long VIX from 12.98... seeking an exit in the 16/17s next week.

INTC - maxed out at top of bear flag?

With the broader market closing with sig' gains, Intel (INTC) was similarly on the rise, settling +1.4% @ $32.38 (intra high 32.50). Price structure is a clear bear flag, within a giant H/S formation.. offering renewed downside to the low $29s within the next few weeks.


INTC, 60min

INTC, daily

INTC, weekly

Summary

*I generally don't highlight the same stock two days running, but INTC is a major tech stock, and a constituent of the Dow.
-

Suffice to say... the fourth consecutive net daily gain, and we're right at the top of what is a bear flag. I imagine the 'wave counters' could call the recent price action an ABC move. Renewed downside to the low $29s looks far more probable than a move above what is now extremely strong resistance @ $35.00
--

*I am short INTC from $32.44, with sp'2122.. and VIX in the low 13s. I am more than content to hold for some weeks, not least since my position are Oct' puts.

INTC - a third net daily gain

With US equity indexes closing somewhat mixed, Intel (INTC) was on the rise, settling +1.0% @ $31.94. Despite the third consecutive net daily gain, broader price structure remains a giant bearish H/S formation. First downside target remains the low $29s, with a grander bearish target of 26/25 in the late summer.


INTC, 60min

INTC, daily

INTC, weekly

Summary

Suffice to add from recent posts... 3 days of gains, but it sure doesn't negate the broader down trend since the start of the month.

The low $29s look due within the next few weeks.

-
*I have eyes on INTC as a near/mid term short into the late summer.

AA - a bounce within the broader downtrend

With the main market closing moderately higher, Alcoa (AA) was similarly on the rise, settling +0.25% @ $12.03. The broader down trend remains comfortably intact, with viable downside to the $10/9 zone later this summer, not least if the sp'500 loses the psy' level of 2K.


AA, daily

AA, monthly

Summary

Suffice to say... broader trend for AA remains bearish, with the giant monthly cycle offering rather natural support around the $10 threshold.

*I've long term confidence in the company, but for now.. it appears to be a case of waiting for the 10/9s.. before considering the down trend from Nov'2014 @ $17.68.. as complete.
-

TWTR - headed to $30

Whilst the main market closed moderately lower, there was significant weakness in Twitter (TWTR), settling -3.6% @ $34.60 (intra low 34.31), the lowest level since June 2014. Near/mid term outlook is bearish, next support is not until the $30 threshold. The all time low of $29.51 (May 7th' 2014) is now on the menu.


TWTR, daily

TWTR, weekly

Summary

*a move to the $30 threshold would be a drop of around -14% from current levels
--

Suffice to say, the recent announcement that the CEO is leaving helped TWTR shares for a mere few hours.

The mainstream have little confidence in the company.. not least since it still can't turn a profit.
-

If the main market falls under sp'2000 this summer (as seems likely.. if briefly), TWTR should continue lower to the psy' level of $30.

It really is a case of whether TWTR can find a CEO who has the guile to start pushing for chargeable site features - such as 'verified accounts', whether it is for individuals, celebs, or corporations.

Right now, I have serious doubts as to if the existing (FAILED) board would be as bold.
-

*I have ZERO interest in meddling in this particularly crazy momo stock. It remains quite entertaining to keep an eye on though!

BTU, CHK, RIG - energy stocks under pressure

Whilst the broader market settled the week moderately lower, there was particular weakness in the energy sector. Peabody Energy (BTU), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), and Transocean (RIG), settled lower by -8.6%, -2.0%, and -2.0% respectively. Outlook is bearish into the late summer/early autumn.


BTU, daily

CHK, daily

RIG, daily

Summary

To be clear...

I am bearish the miners (whether coal, copper, gold/silver), and most energy stocks into the late summer/early autumn.

BTU is especially looking dire... and I am almost tempted to add it to the 'set to disappear' list of other coal miners of ACI, ANR, and WLT.
-

As for CHK and RIG, both are under pressure as energy prices remain broadly weak from summer 2014, not least via the strong USD, which is set to level out in the DXY 92/90 zone.. before a hyper ramp to the 120s into 2016.

*I have long term confidence in the viability of CHK and RIG, but for now.. both look highly vulnerable to lower levels across the summer.

RIG, SDRL - rough day for energy stocks

Whilst the broader market continued to climb, there was notable weakness in energy stocks. The oil/gas drillers of Transocean (RIG) and Seadrill (SDRL) settled lower by a very significant -5.0% and -4.6% respectively. Near term outlook is a little shaky.. if WTIC Oil doesn't resume higher, and break >$62.


RIG, daily

SDRL, daily

Summary

Price action/structure is far weaker in RIG, with a clear break of the recent upward trend.

Oil could easily climb into the $65/67 zone this July/August, but most analysts/traders seem resigned to renewed downside in Oil prices later this year.

If that is the case, RIG and SDRL will be liable to break under their mid March lows.
--

*I like both stocks on a multi-year basis.. but have no interest in considering either on the long-side until late summer.

ACI, ANR, WLT - almost reaching the depths of hell

The huge collapse wave - from spring 2011, in the coal mining stocks continues. Arch coal (ACI), Alpha Natural Resources (ANR), and Walter Energy (WLT) settled lower by -6.0%, -2.9%, and -1.9% respectively. None of the aforementioned stocks will likely survive in their current form beyond another year or so.


ACI, daily

ANR, daily

WLT, daily

Summary

Normally I would focus on what I believe will be the last two surviving US coal miners - CNX and BTU. Today though, I wanted to highlight the terrible trio of Arch Coal, Alpha Natural Resources, and Walter Energy.

All look set to 'disappear' from primary market listings within the 6-18 mths.

I would imagine the vultures are already circling above, ready to buy up the rights to the coal deposits.
-

Without question, the US Govt' 'war on coal' is continuing to see significant results.

DIS - testing key support

Whilst the broader market saw another day of moderate weak chop, there was somewhat notable weakness for Disney (DIS), which settled -0.7% @ $108.53 (intra low 107.65). The primary upward trend remains intact, but if the broader market gets upset in the coming few months, there is viable downside to the 100/95 price gap zone.


DIS, daily

DIS, monthly

Summary

Suffice to say... so far at least, DIS is holding the primary upward trend that stretches back to last October.

I am increasingly resigned to a broader market correction of 8-12% this summer/early autumn. If correct, DIS will almost certainly cool to the 100/95 zone.

Broadly.. I remain hyper-bullish DIS, and it remains one of my top 3 Dow stocks (the other two are INTC and GE), across the next two years.

INTC - giant bearish price structure

Whilst the broader market slipped moderately lower, it was another day of significant declines for Intel (INTC), which settled -1.7% @ $31.30. Price structure across the last year is a giant H/S formation, and if the $29 floor is taken out, there is likely downside to the mid/low 20s by Sept/Oct.


INTC, daily

INTC, weekly

Summary

*the sixth consecutive net daily decline
--

Suffice to say, I've been watching INTC closely for the past week, and today's decline keeps the low $29s within reach by end of this week.

Another bounce off support looks due, but right now.. a bounce is all that could be expected before far more serious declines this summer.

Intel is a key stock for US equities, and if INTC loses the $29s at any point, it will be a powerful bearish warning about the broader equity market.

Best guess... $29 will fail in July/August... with $25 in Sept/Oct. Sustained action under $25 will be extremely difficult, even if sp'1950/00 zone.

TVIX, UVXY - naturally struggling

With the VIX remaining broadly subdued (weekly/Friday peak of 15.65), the 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments saw a somewhat lacklustre performance, with net weekly gains of 1.1% and 0.6% respectively. Near term outlook is for another equity wave higher into late June/early July, which should keep the VIX subdued. in the low teens


TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily

Summary

*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly gain of 2.7%.

--
Suffice to say... a pretty poor weekly close for TVIX and UVXY.

Things really don't get interesting unless the VIX is back in the 20s, and that sure doesn't look likely until after the next FOMC.

*right now, best guess is for a sig' market correction back to the sp'2000/1950 zone.. which might equate to VIX 25/35s. The 40s look out of range this year... even if a GREXIT.
-

As ever, holding TVIX/UVXY across multiple weeks usually ends badly.. due to the statistical decay issue.

GDX - miners falling with the metals

With precious metal prices falling for a second day, the mining stocks were similarly weak. The ETF of GDX, settled lower by a rather significant -1.7% @ $19.07. The mid-term outlook for Gold remains the giant $1000 threshold, which should equate to GDX in the low teens.. if not even 12/10 zone.


GDX, daily

GDX, monthly

Summary

Suffice to say... near term weakness... with soft support of $20 clearly lost.

Metal prices will remain under pressure from a strong dollar... and if lower metal prices... the mining stocks will remain broadly weak.
-

*seeking a key multi-year floor in Sept/Oct... for both metals.. and mining stocks.

F - broadly weak

Despite the Transports index settling higher by a significant 1.2% @ 8510, it was another dowdy day for Ford (F), settling -0.4% @ $15.20. Near term outlook is for continued weak chop, with broader downside to the low $13s.. if the broader market sees a sig' correction this summer/early autumn.


F, daily

F, monthly

Summary

Little to add.

If the main market rolls lower at some point this summer, there looks to be viable downside to at least the Oct' low around $13.
-

Long term outlook is bullish to the mid $20s by 2017, especially if rates begin to rise later this year.

INTC - struggling after the Altera purchase

Whilst the broader market settled only a little lower, there was notable weakness in the tech giant of Intel (INTC), which settled lower by a rather significant -1.9% @ $33.27. Price structure across the last year is a viable H/S formation.. with a key floor in the $29s.


INTC, daily

INTC, monthly

Summary

Suffice to say, post Altera deal, INTC is struggling.

For the equity bulls out there who believe in continued broad equity strength across the summer/autumn, the price structure on INTC - a key Dow/tech stock, should be a real concern.

A failure to break/hold the $35s in the coming month or so would be a major warning of broader market downside.

In theory, a typical H/S, extrapolate 35/29...giving $6... and take 6 off the floor of 29.... giving $23s.   Right now, the $23s look exceptionally difficult. Most realistic downside case would be a full test of the breakout level of $25.
-

To be clear... I'm confident of long term hyper-strength in INTC to the $50s (by mid 2017), but there is certainly a bearish price formation setup for this summer/early autumn.

BTU - still digging toward zero

Whilst the main equity market saw moderate gains, there was notable weakness in some of the coal miners. Peabody Energy (BTU) settled lower by a very significant -8.3% @ $3.10, a new historic low. The low $2s look due later this year.


BTU, daily

BTU, monthly

Summary

Little to add.

The horror continues for most coal miners, and BTU could easily be trading under the $3 threshold this week.
-

*the terrible trio of ACI, ANR, and WLT look far more vulnerable to 'disappearing' than BTU.