GDX - A month of horror for the miners

With precious metal prices taking out the Nov'2014 lows, the related mining stocks were crushed. The ETF of GDX, saw a net monthly decline of -22.6% to $13.75. With Gold set to continue lower to $1000.. if not the 900/875 zone, most mining stocks are still set to fall another 20/25% before year end.


GDX, monthly

GDX, daily

Summary

Little to add.

The horror story for the precious metal mining stocks continues. We're now into the fifth year of a decline, which  has seen most mining stocks collapse around 85/90%.

For the moment.. even at these levels, there seems zero reason to be picking up a 'life time bargain'... not least as USD is set to resume higher (>DXY 100).. with the metals set to continue falling.

INTC - broadly weak

Whilst the main market saw a day of moderate chop, Intel (INTC) also saw some moderate swings, jumping at the open (intra high $29.45), but settling -0.3% @ $28.91. The broader trend remains bearish, with the H/S target remaining $22.50.


INTC, daily

INTC, weekly

Summary

Today was another instance where INTC saw some upside.. but then the sellers appeared.

Broadly.. INTC looks a given for the 26/25s by early Oct'... but if the main market gets real upset (as in sp' <2000).. then INTC will be unable to hold the key $25 threshold... with capitulation in the 23/21 zone.

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*I went short INTC earlier today from the $28.90s... seeking an initial exit in the 28.25/27.75 zone, but will consider being broadly short into early October.

TWTR - hashtag hysteria

Whilst the broader market settled broadly higher, there was some rather extreme weakness in Twitter (TWTR), closing -13.5% @ $31.24. The psy' level of $30 looks set to be lost in the near term... with the IPO price of $26 a valid target by early October.


TWTR, daily

TWTR, weekly' 2yr

Summary

Little to add.

I won't go over the recent earnings report.

Suffice to add.. the market has increasingly little tolerance with this momo/hysteria stock.

Another wave lower is clearly underway.. and TWTR looks set to be trading in the 30/25 zone into year end.

RIG, SDRL - a bounce within broader down trend

With the main market and Oil prices significantly higher, the Oil/gas drillers of Transocean (RIG) and Seadrill (SDRL) settled powerfully higher by 7.9% and 8.4% respectively. However, the gains do little to negate the apocalyptic declines since summer 2014.


RIG,daily

SDRL, daily

Summary

Little to add.

The Oil/gas drillers saw a strong day today, but a one.. or two bounce is almost certainly all it is. The broader trend remains weak.

GDX - miners start the week on a bad note

With precious metal prices remaining weak - despite a cooling USD, the related mining stocks resumed the broader trend. The ETF of GDX settled -4.0% @ $13.52. Near/mid term outlook remains bearish to the 12/10 zone, as Gold looks set for $1000.. .and almost equally viable... 900/875 zone.


GDX, daily

GDX, monthly

Summary

Little to add.

Regardless of any micro bounces... the miners look under pressure into Sept/Oct.

Until physical metal prices stop falling... the miners will remain broadly weak.. regardless of any strength in the broader equity market.

GDX - another week of horror

With precious metal prices continuing lower for a fifth consecutive week, the related mining stocks were smashed lower. The miner ETF of GDX settled Friday higher by 3.2% @ $14.05, but across the week, GDX declined by an extreme -8.9%. Near/mid term outlook remains bearish.


GDX, daily

GDX, weekly

Summary

Suffice to note... the horror continues for the gold mining stocks.

With GDX having broken the Oct' 2008 lower of $15.24, there is nothing but empty air below.

If Gold $1k.. GDX looks set for 12/11s.

Worse case.. Gold to $900/875.. which would likely equate to 10/9.

FCX - another miner in trouble

Whilst the broader market settled moderately lower, there was renewed significant weakness in the mining/energy sector. Freeport McMoran (FCX) settled lower by -9.4% @ $13.64, the lowest level since March 2009. Near/mid term outlook remains bearish to the 10/7s.


FCX, daily

FCX, monthly

Summary

*first, an update on Copper... for which remains a sig' part of FCX's operations

Copper, monthly

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As for FCX, it remains one of my favourite mining stocks. Although it is notable that it also has an interest in the Oil/gas sector.

The $10/7s look due.. not least if the sp'500 fails to hold the giant 2K level this Sept/Oct.

At some point commodities are going to floor, but for now... the trend is unquestionably down.. and that is going to take FCX.. along with most other miners with it.

AAPL - facing a very demanding market

Despite earnings coming in fine, the market was not pleased with Apple (AAPL), as guidance was not all that the market had been expecting. AAPL settled -4.2% @ $125.22 (intra low $121.99). Key support is around 121/20.. a failure of that to hold, will open up the 114/112 zone.


AAPL, daily

Summary

APPL unquestionably continues to be a money making machine, yet it is clear, even a relatively minor down grade on future profit/revenue is enough to cause some real upset.

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Broadly, AAPL remains bizarrely valued to the main market. Regardless of any sustained weakness into the autumn, AAPL looks set to break new highs into next year.

Or perhaps you'd like to buy a negative yield Germany 2yr bond, yes?

INTC - tech train wreck

Whilst the main market settled moderately lower, there was notable weakness in Intel (INTC), which closed -1.3% @ $28.71. The giant H/S formation is highly suggestive of continued weakness to around $22.50.


INTC, daily

INTC, weekly

Summary

Suffice to add... complete break of support.... headed lower.... much lower.
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GDX - mining stocks implode

With Gold decisively breaking the Nov' 2014 low of $1130, the Gold miners saw rather extreme falls to begin the week. The ETF of GDX broke the Oct' 2008 low, settling -10.8% @ $13.76. Regardless of any minor bounces, Gold looks set for the giant $1000 threshold, which will likely equate to 12/10 for GDX.


GDX, daily

GDX, monthly

Summary

Little to add.

Gold/Silver have nothing but empty air below.. with Gold set to fall to 1K, and that will likely knock another 20/25% off most of the Gold/Silver related mining stocks.

TVIX, UVXY - a week of horror

With the VIX continuing to cool, the 2x lev' bullish instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw severe net weekly declines of -32.8% and -33.4% respectively. Near term outlook offers a short term bounce, before resuming lower into early August.


TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily

Summary

*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly decline of -29.0%

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As for TVIX and UVXY, both have lost around 45% since last Thursday, a mere six trading days ago.

Regardless of any bounce in the first half of next week, both TVIX and UVXY looks set to remain subdued..and decay lower into August.

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*I am long VIX from 12.92, seeking an exit next week, at least in the 14.50/75 zone, preferably the 15/16s next Tue/Wed.

INTC - major fail

Intel (INTC) posted earnings at the Wednesday close, and initially soared into the low $32s, but then consistently cooled in AH trading. With the stock turning negative in the early afternoon (intra low $29.10), but settling +0.7% @ $29.90, this still ranks as a huge failure in terms of price action.


INTC, 60min

INTC, daily

INTC, weekly

Summary

*broadly, nothing has changed in terms of the bigger outlook - see weekly cycle. I expect a sustained break <$29 this Sept/Oct... to the 26/25s.

In theory, the H/S formation is suggestive of $22.50, but I realise that is an extremely long way down, and even I'm somewhat dismissive of that target.
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*I have been 'lightly' trading INTC in the past month. Right now, I'm leaving it alone until at least early August. I'd prefer to short it again, but somewhat higher, in the $31.75/32.00 zone.

GDX - new multi-year lows

With precious metals on the slide - pressured by a stronger USD, the miners saw significant weakness. The ETF of GDX settled -2.3% @ $16.31, closing under the Nov' 2014 low. With Gold set for the $1000 threshold, GDX looks vulnerable to further downside to the $12/10 zone.


GDX, daily

GDX, monthly

Summary

It remains the case that if the precious metals continue to slide, the related mining stocks will similarly fall, regardless of however strong the broader market might be.

I am holding to original targets of Gold $1000, with Silver 12/10. If correct, it bodes for GDX in the low teens.. perhaps as low as $12/10.

TWTR - more hysteria

Whilst the broader market saw moderate gains, there was more significant strength in Twitter (TWTR), which settled +2.6% @ $36.70. However, an online post touting a possible buyout saw the stock briefly hit $38.82. Broader price action remains a mess.. and the June low of $33.51 looks very vulnerable.


TWTR, daily

Summary

*as at 4pm EST, the website of the Bloomberg imitation has been taken offline.
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As for TWTR... price action remains a real mess, and the June low looks set to be taken out... not least if the sp'500 loses the giant 2K threshold within the next month or two.

TWTR pays no dividend.. still unable to turn a profit... and I am most certainly no fan. Perhaps I should tweet that?

AAPL - breaking the down trend

With the broader market closing significantly higher for the second consecutive day, Apple (AAPL) settled +1.9% @ $125.65, a clear break above the short term downward trend. First upside target is the $130 threshold, with secondary target of $133.98 - the April high.


AAPL, daily

AAPl, monthly

Summary

Little to add.

AAPL looks set to climb into next earnings... from a pure valuation perspective, AAPL remains bizarrely valued relative to the main market.

TVIX, UVXY - a very mixed week

With US equities seeing some significant swings across the week, the VIX was somewhat wild (intra high 20.05), but settling @ 16.83. The 2x bullish lev' instruments of TVIX and UVXY ended the week on a negative note, with net weekly declines of -2.6% and -2.4% respectively. Outlook is for the VIX to cool into August.


TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily

Summary

First, an update on the VIX

The second consecutive weekly candle with a rather clear spiky top.. suggestive of being maxed out.

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As for TVIX/UVXY, there were some very sig' gains on Monday, Wed', and Thurs'... but the usual 'statistical decay' issue is causing problems.

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*I have no interest in being long VIX until mid August. The next multi-week VIX up cycle should offer the 25/30 zone.. along with the sp'500 under the giant 2000 threshold... if briefly!

AA - post earnings gains

Alcoa (AA) climbed after Q2 earnings, settling +0.95% @ $10.60, but well below the earlier high of $10.97. Broader trend remains bearish, with viable downside into the $9s, not least if sp' loses the giant 2K threshold in the late summer.


AA'daily

AA'monthly

Summary

Little to add.

Daily candle was a black-fail.. indicative of some selling in the morning - as was also seen in the broader market.

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Broadly, regardless of any near term upside into the $11/12s, AA looks set for at least a brief foray into the $9s by Sept/Oct.

INTC - holding the $29s

With US equities seeing significant weakness, Intel (INTC) was on the slide, settling -1.3% @ $29.51 (intra low $29.15). Near term outlook is bullish, with first upside to the price gap zone of 31.50/32.00. There remains broader downside to the 26/25s by early October.


INTC, 60min

INTC' daily

Summary

*closing daily candle... hollow red reversal candle, bodes in favour to the equity bulls into next week.
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The key $29 threshold is holding. A sig' bounce seems due into August... but from there.. things look set to turn more severely to the downside.

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*I am long INTC from $29.40.. seeking to trade in/out.. until the 32s. Will seek to be short INTC from the 32/33s in August.. seeking to hold short across Sept'.

GDX - miners in trouble

With the precious metals breaking lower, the related mining stocks saw significant declines. The ETF of GDX settled -4.8% @ $16.99. With Gold set to break the Nov' 2014 low of $1130... and continue lower to the giant $1000 threshold, GDX looks set for the low teens... if not 12/10 zone.


GDX, daily

GDX, monthly

Summary

Little to add.

Despite the broader equity market ramping in the afternoon, the miners were unable, as the precious metals remained very weak.
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The mining stocks look set for broad downside into the autumn.... and if the USD can break >DXY 100.... the declines will be increasingly severe.

INTC - on track for the low $29s

With the broader market resuming lower, Intel (INTC) was particularly on the slide, settling -1.7% @ $30.03 (intra low $29.84). Near term outlook is for further downside to the 29.50/00 zone.. before a bounce to the 32/33s in August. The 26/25s look due by late Sept/early Oct.


INTC, daily

INTC, weekly

Summary

Suffice to say... the giant H/S formation remains intact.

Best guess.. INTC to floor in the low 29s... a $3 bounce to the 32s in August.. and then rather severe weakness in the Sept/Oct. time period.
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Long term upside.... $50s.

*I will consider a short-term INTC long from the low 29s to 30/31, and then I will seek to re-short INTC in August..  eventually to flip long by early October.

TVIX, UVXY - powerful net weekly gains

With the VIX seeing a net weekly gain of 20.5% @ 16.89, the 2x bullish lev' instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw powerful gains of 27.9% and 26.8% respectively. Near term outlook offers further VIX upside, with price structure, being a large multi-day bull flag.


TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily

Summary

*first, an update on the VIX weekly

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As for TVIX/UVXY, a huge Monday gain... a few days of chop.. with renewed strength into the early weekly close.

Price structure is a bull flag, and regardless of the Greek nonsense, it does bode strongly in favour of further VIX upside next Monday.. along with sp'2050s.. if not much lower to the giant 2K threshold.

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*I currently have no open VIX trades, but will be seeking to be broadly LONG VIX from mid August into early October. There looks to be a clear window for a significant market correction of 8-12%.

BTU, CNX - another day of horror for coal miners

Whilst the broader market saw a day of moderate gains, there was notable weakness in energy stocks. The coal miners of Peabody Energy (BTU), and Consol Energy (CNX) settled lower by -18.3% and -3.6% respectively. The US Government's 'war on coal' continues to proceed.


BTU, daily

CNX, daily

Summary

The daily charts look dire, but seen on the bigger monthly chart... the true horror is revealed...

BTU

CNX

Even the bigger CNX broke ultimate support in June.. and is now seemingly headed for $10.. perhaps even $5.

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*I have long term confidence in CNX.. although the market is highly suggestive that BTU will eventually 'dissapear'.. along with ANR, ACI, and WLT.