DISCA - falling despite a bouncing market

Despite the broader market seeing a rather significant bounce, Discovery Communications (DISCA) settled significantly lower for the second consecutive day, -1.4% @ $26.02 (intra low 25.27). Near term outlook is bearish, with a mid term target of the 22/20 zone.


DISCA, daily

DISCA, monthly

Summary

Little to add

To be clear.. I like DISCA (and I'm not just thinking about the shows - Gold Rush, Bering Sea Gold). It is one of the better TV/media companies.

Once the broader market levels out... whether in Q4.. or Q1 2016, I would be seeking to pick up DISCA for a mid/long term hold.

AAPL - breaking strongly lower

Whilst the main market saw a day of moderate swings, there was significant weakness in Apple (AAPL), which settled -3.0% @ $109.08 (intra low 107.86). Near term outlook is for a test of the giant $100 threshold.. along with sp'1820.


AAPL, daily

Summary

The third consecutive net daily decline... as AAPL has broken rising support

*I am short AAPL from $110.39.. seeking an exit around 102/100 by Thurs/Friday.
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AA - against the broader market

Whilst the broader equity market was whacked under the sp'1900 threshold, Alcoa (AA) was a notable exception, settling +5.8% @ $9.60. Broader price trend remains bearish, having steadily collapsed from the $17s in February.


AA, daily

AA, monthly

Summary

Frankly, splitting the company into two will do nothing for the loss making section/s of Alcoa.

With aluminium prices set to remain low for months (if not a few years?) to come... there is little reason to think breaking the company apart is going to help the underlying problem.
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*I have ZERO interest in being long AA, not least as management unable to address the real problems.

TVIX, UVXY - minor net weekly gains

It was a somewhat bullish week for the VIX, with a net weekly gain of 6.0% The 2x lev' bullish instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw net weekly gains of 1.6% and 2.0% respectively. Near term outlook offers further equity weakness, and that should equate to VIX in the 40/45 zone.. if sp'1820.


TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily

Summary

*first, an update on the VIX..

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Little to add.

With the VIX recovering into the Friday close.. the door remains open to renewed VIX explosive upside. The cyclical setup for Monday strongly favours the equity bears, first target is the VIX 30 threshold.

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*I remain long-VIX from the 23.40s.

DIS - increasingly weak

With US equities remaining broadly weak, Disney (DIS) continues to roll over, settling -0.9% @ $100.65 (intra low 99.24). Near term outlook sustained action under the $100 threshold, with the $90 level very viable if sp'1820.


DIS, daily

DIS, monthly

Summary

Little to add.

Like in early Aug. DIS is a pre-cursor warning for the main market.

Further downside looks due.

*I would consider going long DIS in the 90/85 zone in early Oct'.

USO - Oil fails again to break upward

It has been a messy few weeks for WTIC Oil, stuck between $49 and $43. Today saw the Oil ETF of USO open higher to $15.24, but which then saw a powerful downside reversal, settling -3.2% @ $14.44. Near term outlook is bearish, with viable downside to at least the 14.00/13.75 zone.


USO, daily2

WTIC, daily

Summary

Suffice to note... today's candle... bearish engulfing, with a break of soft support/trend.

Despite a net inventory draw, Oil just can't manage a sustained breakout.
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*I was recently long Oil via USO, but sold into the initial breakout on Sept'16th (USO $15.40s).

As things are, I am leaving Oil well alone.. on both sides of the trade.

Best guess.. if broader capital market upset into Oct', then Oil will be under some natural downward pressure.

GDX - falling with Gold

With the precious metals under renewed dollar pressure, the mining stocks were on the slide. The ETF of GDX settled -4.6% @ $13.36. Near/mid term outlook remains bearish, with GDX likely to trade to the $11/10s before year end.


GDX, daily

GDX, monthly

Summary

Little to add.

It remains the case that regardless of the broader market, if the precious metals are lower, the related mining stocks will follow.

INTC - broadly bearish

With the main market closing moderately higher, Intel (INTC) was similarly on the rise, settling +0.5% @ $29.17. Broader price structure remains a giant H/S formation, and still bodes for $22s before a key floor is in.


INTC, daily

INTC, weekly

Summary

Little to add.

I am long term bullish INTC, but with the main market seemingly headed back under sp'1900 this October, INTC will surely resume lower.

I will be considering an INTC-short in a few days... and would likely hold into mid Oct'. I'd then consider switching LONG in the 24/22 zone.

TVIX, UVXY - net weekly declines

With the VIX climbing into the weekend, TVIX and UVXY saw very powerful Friday net gains of 24.7% and 25.2% respectively. However, it is equally notable that TVIX and UVXY saw net weekly declines of -12.7% and -12.9% respectively. With no fed rate hike, higher market volatility is here for at least another month.


TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily

Summary

*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly decline of -4.0%

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As for TVIX/UVXY, if the VIX has floored in the 17s - with sp'2020, then from here on.. into early October.. things are about to get 'real interesting'.

*I have no position in VIX, but will look to pick up a VIX call block early next week.

VIX in the 30s - by mid Oct' looks an easy target. The real question is whether we'll see 40s.. or 50s again.

Best guess.... 40/45... by mid Oct'. with sp'1820.

As ever... one day at a time!

AAPL - struggling relative to the broader market

Relative to the broader market, Apple (AAPL) continues to struggle, settling -2.1% @ $114.00 (intra low 113.72). Near term outlook is for AAPL to remain stuck under the old broken support level of 120/119. Renewed downside to the low 90s looks due in Oct/early Nov.


AAPL, daily

AAPL, 60min

Summary

Little to add.

As was the case in late July/early August, AAPL is again arguably a pre-cursor warning about the broader market.

*I will consider an AAPL-short in the coming 3-7 trading days.
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TVIX - the horror continues

With equities closing higher for a second consecutive day, the VIX continued to cool. The 2x lev' bullish instrument of TVIX settled lower by a rather severe -12.5% @ $9.33. The 8s.. and probably 7s look due in the immediate term before the next opportunity of a major up wave.


TVIX, daily

Summary

Suffice to say... those who have been resolutely short the market - inc' via VIX-long instruments, are continuing to suffer.

Best guess.. VIX to the 17/15 zone

... before re-exploding into the 30s.. and probably 40s in Oct'

F - rising with the main market

With the main market closing significantly higher, Ford (F), settled higher by a very significant 3.8% @ $14.30. Near term outlook is for further upside, but there will be very strong resistance in the $14.75/15.00 zone. Sustained action in the $15s looks unlikely... with threat of the 12/11s in October.


F, daily

F, monthly

Summary

Little to add.

Short term bullish... mid term bearish....  long term bullish!
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BABA - almost one year in

It has been almost a full year since the Alibaba (BABA) IPO ($68) of last Sept', since then the stock has broadly struggled after an initial high of $119.45 (Nov'10th). The daily close of -3.2% @ $62.59, is already close to the flash-print low of $58 when the sp'500 was trading @ 1867. Outlook is broadly bearish.


BABA, daily

Summary

Little to add.

BABA remains a curious stock to watch... but then its not really a stock in the purest sense.. as its part of a holding company based in the Caymans.

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To be clear, I sure won't short this company, but I sure won't be long either. BABA remains one to watch for entertainment reasons.... much like AMZN or even NFLX.

Worse case.. if renewed market weakness to the mid/low sp'1800s in October... BABA would likely unravel to the psy' level of $50.

TVIX, UVXY - significant net weekly declines

With the VIX continuing to cool from the hyper spike of 53.29 to a weekly close of 23.20. The 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw net weekly declines of -21.9% and -22.5% respectively. Near term outlook is for further VIX cooling.


TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily

Summary

*first, an update on the VIX,

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As for TVIX and UVXY, the series of weekly gains has concluded, as VIX has already been cut in half from the high of Aug' 24th.

As ever... such leveraged instruments are for short term holds only... not least due to the decay. Indeed, with the VIX itself still relatively volatile, the rate of statistical decay is much higher than normal.

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Best guess.. sp' maxes out in the 2000/2070 zone, with VIX flooring in the 17/15 zone.

From there, I am seeking renewed equity weakness... back into the sp'1800s... which should equate to VIX (at least briefly) in the 40s.

AAPL - rebounding from a minor washout

Apple (AAPL) saw a rather stark post conf' announcement sell off which continued into early Wednesday trading, but then the buyers piled in from the early low of $109.90, with AAPL settling +2.2% @ $112.59. Near term outlook is for further upside to the 115/117 zone... before the 90s in Oct'


AAPL' 60min

AAPL' daily

Summary

Having traded AAPL four times in the past few weeks, I am leaving it alone until after the FOMC.

From there onward... target will be a return to sub $100... perhaps the $90 threshold by mid Oct'.. with sp'1820/1700 zone.

Long term.. AAPL remains mis-priced relative the main market... hyper target into late 2017 would be $250... min.

DIS - opening reversal

The US equity market - along with Disney (DIS) started the day on a very positive note (intra high $104.99), but DIS saw a rather classic opening black-fail candle on the hourly cycle, and unravelled across the day, settling -2.0% @ $101.91. Near term outlook is for renewed upside to the 106/108 zone.


DIS'60min

DIS' daily

Summary

Suffice to note... DIS needs to hold the $101s for the remainder of this week, otherwise next support is not until the low $99s.

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*I am long DIS from this afternoon, from the $102s...  a few hours too early. Seeking an exit in the 104.50/106.00 zone by next Mon/Tuesday.

NFLX - falling despite the broader market

Despite the main market closing with very significant gains, Netflix (NFLX), settled -4.0% @ $94.88 (intra low 93.55). Regardless of any upside into mid Sept', the door is wide open to the 75/70 price gap zone. From there, upside into year end.


NFLX, daily

Summary

Little to add.

Today's performance in NFLX was notably lousy considering the main market.

Broadly, NFLX looks headed to the mid/low 70s in October.. which would sync up with the sp'1800s.. or even lower.

*I would consider going long-NFLX in the 75/70 zone in Oct', although generally, I refrain from such momo stocks.

TVIX, UVXY - another strong weekly gain

With equities falling into the long weekend, the 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw significant net weekly gains of 23.0% and 23.8% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed equity upside, which should equate to VIX cooling back to the low 20s.


TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily

Summary

*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly gain of 6.7%.

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*The third consecutive significant net weekly gain for TVIX and UVXY.

The Thursday daily reversal candle was a clear warning of upside into the weekend.. and that was indeed the case, with rather powerful net Friday gains.

However, my best guess is for renewed equity upside, at least to sp'2000 or so.. and that will re-cool the VIX to around the 20 threshold.
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I will strongly consider going long-VIX in FOMC week. Seeking VIX 50/60s (minimum) if sp'1900 is lost.. which should open up sp'1820.. if not the low 1700s.

There are some very interesting VIX scenarios for October, but more on those.. .another time.

AAPL - swings lower, but headed higher

It was a mixed day for AAPL, with an opening high of $113.10, but then cooling into the afternoon to $110.04. Renewed upside looks due.. at least to the 114/115s next week... probably to be helped with a looming product announcement.


AAPL, 15min

AAPL, daily

Summary

*I exited AAPL-long at the open from $112.50

re-long AAPL in the afternoon from $110.16... will hold overnight.. seeking next exit in the 112/113s.. before the Friday close.
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Suffice to add, a sig' net daily decline, but broadly, AAPL should resume higher tomorrow.. and across next week.

As many recognise, relative to the main market, AAPL remains under-valued.

INTC - rising with the market

With the broader market closing significantly higher, Intel (INTC) was similarly on the rise, settling +2.8% @ $28.60.  Near term outlook is for further upside to the $30 threshold. However, if the main market sees renewed downside into Oct', primary target remains the $22s.


INTC, daily

INTC, weekly

Summary

Little to add.

INTC remains one of my favourite tech stocks, and it has been a rather remarkable stock to follow since mid May. The H/S formation has already almost fully played out... but $22s remain the ideal target for October.

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*I would consider going long-INTC in the $23/21 zone in Oct/Nov.

NFLX - whacked lower with the main market

With US equities significantly lower, Netflix (NFLX) saw particularly severe falls, settling -8.0% @ $105.85 (intra low 103.82). Near term outlook will be entirely dependent on the direction within the broader market.


NFLX, daily

Summary

*it is highly notable that at last Monday's opening, NFLX saw a flash crash print to the $85 gap zone.
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Suffice to add... NFLX is trading with the broader market, but generally moves at a more dynamic 2-4x ratio.

Best guess.. renewed upside to the 120s.