GDX - rough month for the miners

It was another difficult day for the mining stocks, with the ETF of GDX settling -1.8% @ $25.44. For the month of August, GDX declined by a very severe -16.8% - the worse month since April 2013. Near term outlook is bearish. Mid term outlook - from the Jan' low, is now extremely borderline.


GDX, daily

GDX, monthly

Summary

So... with Gold seeing minor weak chop into end month - settling around $1300, the related mining stocks continued to struggle.

Daily cycle: next support is around $22, where the 200dma is lurking.

Monthly cycle: rising support - from the Jan' low, is in the $25s, and is now being fractionally broken. Any Sept' price action in the 25s will more decisively break trend.

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If the USD eventually breaks above the DXY 100 threshold - as seems inevitable at some point, it is going to be a serious deflationary pressure on the metals.. and that would certainly drag the miners lower.. even if the broader equity market is continuing to rise.

AAPL - shrugging off tax issues

Whilst the main market settled moderately mixed, Apple (AAPL) was under pressure after an EU tax ruling, that AAPL should pay $14.5bn in back taxes. AAPL settled -0.8% @ $106.00. Broader price action remains strong though, with the $110/111s probable shortly after the Labor day holiday break.


AAPL, daily

AAPL, monthly

Summary

News report: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37220799
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Were it almost any other company, such a legal ruling would have sent a given stock imploding by at least 10%.

Yet AAPL was only lower by around -1.5% in early trading, and showed a reversal almost from the open.
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Broader price structure is VERY bullish, as the down trend from the April 2015 high of $131 looks to have concluded.

If the main market can hold together (no move under sp'2K) across Sept/Oct' - as seems probable, then AAPL should be able to climb into year end.

By late spring 2017, AAPL would likely be pushing for a new historic high.
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*AAPL remains one of my top 5 Dow stocks. In terms of tech, I'd place it second only to INTC.

BAC - rising on rate hike hopes

Whilst the main market saw broad gains, there was similar strength in financials, with Bank of America (BAC), settling +0.3% @ $15.84, the best level since early January. The $18 threshold remains critical, as its held as resistance for the better part of three years.


BAC, daily

BAC, monthly

Summary

A fifth consecutive net daily gain for BAC, as the market is trying to re-price ahead of an increasingly anticipated second rate hike.

To be clear, I do not expect a hike ahead of the US election. Instead, a rate hike of 25bps at the FOMC of Dec'21st looks probable.
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From a pure price perspective, $18 remains the critical threshold. Any monthly close >$18 would bode for much higher levels in 2017.
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*BAC remains my most favoured financial stock within the Dow'30.

TVIX, UVXY - the run of horror concludes

With equities seeing a fair amount of chop, market volatility began to pick up, and that saw the 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY manage net weekly gains of 5.3% and 5.5% respectively. Broadly though, the market looks comfortable into mid/late September, and the decay looks set to resume.


TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily

Summary

First, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly gain of 20.4%.

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As for TVIX and UVXY....

So.. a moderate net weekly gain, after 8 straight weeks of horror.

A sporadic weekly gain is to be expected.

As ever... mid/long term holds simply never end well, due to the statistical decay factor.
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yours truly has zero interest in being long the VIX, as equities still look set for the sp'2200s into September, and that will result in the VIX 11/10s... perhaps even single digit VIX - something not seen since Feb'2007.

NFLX - breaking upward

Whilst the main market traded broadly flat - ahead of the Yellen, there was notable strength in Netflix (NFLX), which settled +2.2% @ $97.32. With an upgrade from William Blair to $145, today saw a clear technical upside break, next clear resistance is the giant psy' level of $100.


NFLX, daily

NFLX, monthly

Summary

First.. the upgrade...

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As for NFLX.... we have a clear short-term break above declining trend/resistance.

The $100 threshold will offer some very strong resistance - see bigger monthly chart. Considering underlying strength in the main market, it would seem NFLX will manage to break back above $100, giving clarity that the downward trend that stretches back to the Dec'2015 high of $133.27 has concluded.

NFLX continues to churn out some of the best shows. Yet, as a company, the valuation is frankly... ludicrous.

Yours... a fan of the shows... but not of any company with a forward PE >100.

GDX - miners having serious problems

Whilst the main market saw moderate weakness, there was increasing upset after a mysterious 'big seller' in the Gold market, which resulted in the related miners unravelling across the day. The ETF of GDX saw a sig' net daily decline of -7.0% @ $26.98. Near term outlook is bearish. Mid term.... borderline bullish.


GDX, daily

GDX, monthly

Summary

Suffice to add... today's daily candle sure was ugly.

The bigger trend since the Jan' low in the $12s, is clearly still intact. However, any price action in the $26s in September will be enough to provisionally break rising trend.

BAC - financials remain poised

Whilst the main market closed a little higher, there was more notable upside in Bank of America (BAC), which settled +1.2% @ $15.36. The financials are unquestionably still struggling as int' rates remain at emergency levels. However, a second rate rise before year end would certainly give the excuse for a break 'up and away'.


BAC, daily

BAC, monthly

Summary

Suffice to add... short term, BAC is now trading above the late April high. Next resistance is not until the mid/upper $17s.

Critical resistance remains around the $18 threshold. Any monthly close >$18 would be extremely bullish for financials, and the broader US market in 2017.
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*of the financials in the Dow, BAC remains my most favoured.

RIG - battling to stay afloat

Whilst the main market was relatively flat, there was notable weakness in Transocean (RIG), which settled -3.8% @ $10.09. The psy' level of $10 will act as soft support in the near term, as a move to test the double top of $13 still appears viable, if WTIC oil can re-take.. and hold above $50.


RIG, daily

RIG, monthly

Summary

Price action in RIG remains pretty wild. The stock has been struggling - relative to the main market, since mid July - which now acts as a double top from an early March high around $13.

Indeed, the $13 threshold is now an extremely important level. Any break >13 would open up an easy move to soft psy' resistance of $15, and from there... the $20 level.

Even if RIG can claw to $20 by late spring 2017 - with WTIC oil in the $70s (the most bullish of realistic scenarios), that will still leave RIG some 60% lower than the typical trading levels of 2013.
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Highly speculative... but... after some degree of re-organisation, RIG looks set to stay afloat.

TVIX, UVXY - eight weeks of horror

With equities breaking another set of new historic highs, market volatility remains very subdued. The 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw an eighth consecutive net weekly decline, lower by -4.5% and -4.6% respectively. Near term outlook doesn't offer any realistic hope that the horror show will see a temporary respite.


TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily

Summary

First, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly decline of -1.7%.

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As for TVIX/UVXY, even to me.. 8 weeks of straight declines is quite a bizarre sight.

In fact.... TVIX/UVXY have not seen 8 weeks of declines since they first appeared in summer 2012.

TVIX... weekly, 2012-2014.

Those are some scary big numbers on the right hand price scale.

TVIX first appeared at the equivalent of $195,307.50 per share.

... and if that doesn't remind you of the problem of long term holds... I can't offer anything more!

CHK, KMI - strong day for energy

With oil climbing for a sixth consecutive day, there was particular strength in the energy sector. Chesapeake Energy (CHK) and Kinder Morgan (KMI), saw rather powerful gains of 9.1% and 4.4% respectively. Near/mid term outlook remains bullish, as oil looks set to re-take the psy' level of $50.


CHK, daily

KMI, daily

Summary

Suffice to add... both stocks are naturally powering upward as oil prices continue to recover from the recent low of the $39s.

CHK looks set for the $7s... whilst KMI looks on track for the $23s in the near term... with a grander target of 25/26 by year.
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*KMI is by definition an infinitely more financially stable and superior stock - relative to CHK. 

CREE - ugly earnings, stock smashed

With a lousy Q2 earnings report, Cree (CREE) was smashed lower at the open, settling -14.9% @ $23.38. Next support is the May low of $22.18. If the $22s fail to hold... CREE looks vulnerable to the mid teens.. even if the main equity market remains strong.


CREE, daily

CREE, monthly, 10yr

Summary

Q2 earnings were ugly. The outlook for Q3 isn't exactly inspiring, as CREE only expects to earn something around 10 cents.

From a pure price perspective, if CREE fails to hold the $22s.. next soft support is the psy' level of $20. After that, its empty air to the 2008 low around $15.

Even if the main equity market continues to battle higher into the autumn, CREE 
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Everyone needs lighting, right? Yet... CREE continues to struggle in what is an economy that is 'ticking along'. When the next recession hits... as is inevitable, CREE really does look vulnerable.

CHK - breaking up and away

Whilst the main market closed moderately weak, there was notable strength in Chesapeake Energy (CHK), which settled +7.1% @ $5.89, the best level since early May. Near/mid term outlook is bullish, with first target of $7. If the main market continues to broadly climb into spring 2017, CHK will likely be close to $12.


CHK, daily

CHK, monthly

Summary

Recent short term price structure was a very large bullish pennant.. and we've seen CHK break to the upside.

Next target is the April 28'th high of $7.59.

Mid term.... the psy' level of $10... but equally so.. $12.

TWTR - maniacs chasing twitter

Whilst the headline US equity indexes broke new historic highs, there was far more notable upside in Twitter (TWTR), which settled +6.8% @ $20.86, the best level since early January. Near/mid term outlook is bullish, with the soft psy' level of $25 seemingly a given before year end.


TWTR, daily

Summary

Fundamentally Twitter is still facing underlying problems, not least that user growth is just not great.

From a pure price/technical perspective though, there is a clear breakout underway, as the 200dma is now being held above for the first time since April 2015 - at the time of the 'early' Q1 earnings release.

Clearly, the biggest unknown is whether someone will just buyout TWTR.

Keeping in mind that the IPO - Nov'2013, price was $26... a buyer is now likely going to need to offer at least $40/45.
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*no position, for a thousand reasons.

TVIX, UVXY - seven weeks of horror

With equity indexes breaking new historic highs, the VIX remained broadly subdued. The 2x lev' bullish instruments of TVIX and UVXY continued to decay, with net weekly declines of -6.5% and -6.0% respectively. Near term outlook offers no realistic hope that the VIX will see any sustained/significant upside.


TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily

Summary

First, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly gain of 1.4%.

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As for TVIX/UVXY.... despite a net weekly gain in front month VIX, both instruments still declined for a seventh consecutive week!

Now we have TVIX and UVXY having both recently had reverse splits. As ever, mid/long term decay is an inevitable element of such leveraged products.

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To me, the VIX-long trade appears dead until mid/late September. Even then, the key VIX 20 threshold might not be seen for some further months... as central banks continue to increase global QE, and keep rates at emergency levels.

CHK - big bullish pennant

Whilst the main market closed moderately higher, there was more significant strength in the energy sector. Chesapeake Energy (CHK) settled +4.7% @ $5.03. A break above $5.60 would be very bullish, and offer the $7s into the autumn. If the main market holds together across Sept/Oct, the $12s look probable by late spring 2017.


CHK, daily

CHK, monthly

Summary

CHK cut a deal to escape a commitment of almost $2bn.

Story: see HERE
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Price structure on the daily chart is a very clear bullish pennant.. that bodes for a test of the late April high around $7.

The giant monthly cycle highlights how the down wave from summer 2014 concluded in Feb' 2016. Price action is increasingly tight... a big move is coming. Based on oil, and the broader market, CHK looks set for considerable upside.

DIS - good earnings, headed higher

Whilst the main market closed moderately weak, there was significant underlying strength in Disney (DIS), which settled +1.2% @ $97.85 (intra high 99.27). A break above the psy' level of $100 looks due, and from there, broader upward strength to the 110/115 zone before year end.


DIS, daily

DIS, monthly

Summary

Q2 EPS was $1.62... a touch above concensus, around 11% above last year.
Revenue was $4.456bn, 9% above last year.

Q2 share buy backs: $1.5bn

see HERE for more details.
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Short term price action is now bullish, after an initial post-earnings sell off in Tue' AH and pre-market Wed'. The $100 threshold looks due.

The giant monthly cycle has declining resistance around the $100 threshold. Any daily closes >100, will offer 110/115 within 3-5 months.

AAPL - helping the Nasdaq break a new historic high

The Nasdaq comp' broke a new historic high of 5238, and that was partly due to continuing underlying strength in Apple (AAPL), which settled +0.4% @ $108.82, the fifth consecutive net daily gain. Mid term outlook is bullish, and if the main market doesn't unravel in Sept/Oct', then AAPL will be challenging for >$131 in spring 2017.


AAPL, daily

AAPL, monthly

Summary

Suffice to add... AAPL continues to power upward... filling the April gap zone of the $107/108s.

The upper daily bollinger will be offering the $110s across the remainder of this week.

The giant monthly chart shows a clear breakout. At the current rate of recovery, we'll see a bullish MACD cross in Oct/November.. and that does bode for broader upside into next spring.

APC, KMI - energy stocks catching a bid

With WTIC oil climbing for a fourth consecutive day, the related energy stocks of Anadarko (APC), and Kinder Morgan (KMI) settled higher by 0.5% and 2.0% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish. Mid term outlook will turn bullish if Oil can break/hold the $50 threshold.


APC, daily

KMI, daily

Summary

Suffice to add, with higher oil prices, it was no surprise to see continued upside in most energy stocks.

KMI has successfully held the old breakout level of the $19s. Upside target 25/26.

APC is yet to break key resistance of the $57/58s.. but it looks highly probable.
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*yours truly remains long APC... would only turn bearish on a break <$50.

TVIX, UVXY - six weeks of horror

With equities breaking new highs, and the VIX cooling to the low 11s, the 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY decayed for a sixth consecutive week, with net weekly declines of -12.6% and -13.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers further decay, as the US equity market looks strong into September.


TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily

Summary

*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly decline of -4.0%

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Suffice to add... with equities strong, and the VIX crushed, the leveraged VIX instruments are continuing to decay.

The VIX-long trade looks dead (at least) into September.

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*it is very surprising that TVIX - run by Credit Suisse, has not yet seen a reverse split, as UVXY recently did. Considering TVIX is now trading around $1, a 1 for 10 reverse split looks due to be announced.
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UPDATE, Aug'7th.

As of the open of Aug'9th, TVIX will see a 1 for 25 reverse split.

Thanks to poster sutluc for the heads up.

DIS - cooling ahead of earnings

Whilst the main market settled broadly flat, there was more notable weakness in Disney (DIS), which settled -1.0% @ $95.16. Earnings are due next Tuesday (AH), and Mr Market will be looking for some inspiration to buy the stock back above the psy' level of $100.


DIS, daily

DIS, monthly

Summary

Cyclically - short term, DIS is on the low end of the cycle, and is due another up wave, having cooled from the $100 threshold. Indeed, the $100 threshold remains very natural strong resistance.

The bigger monthly chart is looking a little bearish, as there is a clear break of rising trend, that stretches back to the Feb' low of $85.63.

If the market is not pleased next week, first support will be the $90/87 zone.

An August close >$100 would be suggestive of broader upside to the $110/115 zone before year end.
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Best guess... DIS to break >$100, as the broader market heads higher into September.

AAPL - holding above broken resistance

Whilst the main market closed moderately higher, there was notable strength in Apple (AAPL), which settled +1.2% @ $105.79. Price action remains above broken declining trend/resistance. If the main market climbs into spring 2017, AAPL will be challenging the April 2015 historic high of $131.29


AAPL, daily

AAPL, monthly

Summary

AAPL is short, mid, and long term bullish.

At the current rate, we'll see a bullish MACD cross on the giant monthly cycle before year end, and that bodes for a new historic high in spring 2017.

GDX - breaking new highs

With precious metals seeing broad gains, the related mining stocks were similarly on the rise. The ETF of GDX settled +1.3% at $31.33, the best level since April 2013. The $35/40 zone looks an easy target if Gold $1400s.


GDX, daily

GDX, monthly

Summary

*the miners are currently net higher for the 8th month of the past 9, the most bullish run since 2010.
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Suffice to add, it was a rather bullish day for the precious metals (Gold +$10, Silver +0.9%), which naturally helped attract further buying interest into the related mining stocks.

Today was another reminder than the gold/silver miners are trading inverse to the broader market.

KMI - energy stocks under pressure

Whilst the main market continued to trade in minor chop mode, there was very significant weakness in energy stocks. Kinder Morgan (KMI) settled -3.7% @ $19.58. Old resistance of the $19 threshold is now first support, and in theory.. should hold.


KMI, daily

KMI, monthly

Summary

With WTIC oil unable to hold the psy' level of $40 today, it was no surprise to see energy stocks getting trashed.

KMI is one of the more stable stocks, but was still hit pretty hard.

From a pure price perspective, having broken through key resistance of $19 in early July, and quickly moving to the 22s, we're now effectively back testing the breakout level.

Bullish KMI, unless a daily close <$19. If the 19s are held... then next upside target is 25/26... certainly viable by year end.

I would only be outright bearish KMI on a break under the monthly 10MA, currently in the $18.30s.