A year of chop for the miners

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a strong note, settling +2.4% at $21.09, which made for a net monthly gain of 11.1%, but that still made for an annual decline of -8.8%. The December settlement back in the $21s bodes bullish, at least in the s/t.

GDX monthly

GDX, daily

Summary

A third consecutive net monthly gain, with GDX back above old support of the $21s. Its a 'curious' year end settlement, after what has mostly been a year of broad chop. Things would turn outright m/t bullish with any monthly settlement >25.00. That is still a considerable 19% higher.
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Lets take a look at two of the biggest miners...

Barrick Gold (ABX)

A fourth consecutive net monthly gain, settling right around the upper trend. Any price action above the December high of $14.11 would bode for psy'20, and key price threshold of $21.50s.

Special note: Barrick Gold will be relisted as of Wednesday Jan'2nd 2019, having merged with Randgold Resources (GOLD). To be clear, the new name/ticker will be: Barrick Gold (GOLD) on the NYSE, whilst on the Canadian exchange, the ticker will remain ABX.

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Newmont Mining (NEM)

A third consecutive month higher, settling just fractionally shy of the key 10MA. Note trend resistance in the $39s. Things turn decisive >40.00.
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The more cautious will wait to chase any of the miners until Gold has a break above the multi-year trading range of 1072/1392. To be decisive, >1400s.

Miners catch a bounce

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a weak note, settling -1.1% at $18.93, but that still made for a net monthly gain of 2.2%. The mid term outlook remains bearish, as key support has been decisively settled under for three consecutive months.


GDX monthly

GDX daily

Summary

Suffice to add, the miners ended October on a bearish note, not helped by cooling gold and silver. Whilst we did see a net monthly gain for GDX, note the upper candle spike from just under old support.... now resistance. The m/t trend remains bearish unless the $21s are re-taken. I do not see that happening in the remainder of the year.

Miners broadly weak

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a bullish note, +1.0% at $18.52, but that still made for a fourth consecutive net monthly decline, -3cents (0.2%). The mid term outlook is bearish, as key support has been decisively settled under for two consecutive months.


GDX monthly

GDX daily

Summary

Suffice to add, August saw a monstrously bearish break of support. September has broken a new multi-year low of $17.28. With the m/t trend in gold and silver also bearish, the miners will remain under pressure into October/Q4.

Key miners...

Barrick Gold (ABX), monthly

Barrick Gold just this past week announced a merger with Randgold Resources (GOLD). I'm not sure when that will be formally signed off. It is safe to assume that the combined company will use the apt' ticker of GOLD.
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Newmont Mining (NEM), monthly

Newmont declined for a fifth consecutive month. Yes, the September settlement was right on a key price threshold, but the m/t trend is clearly bearish.
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Whilst both miners are superb (and are the two biggest components of GDX), both have to be seen as bearish, not least as gold and silver are broadly weak. Arguably, even the boldest of gold bugs will leave the sector alone for some months to come.

Miners following gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a moderately bearish note, -0.7% at $18.55, and that made for a net monthly decline of -12.8%. The mid term outlook is bearish, as key support has been decisively settled under.


GDX monthly

GDX daily

Summary

With gold lower for a fifth month, and silver cooling for a third, its not exactly a surprise to see the gold miners follow to the downside. The August break of support was decisive, and we've already seen GDX break below the Dec'2016 low of $18.43.

The m/t outlook for gold and silver is bearish, with GDX vulnerable to a FULL retrace back to the Jan'2016 low of $12.36. As a side note, its notable that Silver saw the lowest monthly close since Jan'2016.

Lets take a look at two of the key miners - which are the two biggest components of GDX,  Newmont Mining (NEM) and Barrick Gold (ABX)

NEM

An August net monthly decline of a fierce -15.4% to $31.03, back to levels from Dec'2016. Any price action in the 28s will offer a bearish run to the 22s.
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ABX

A fourth consecutive month lower, settling -6.6% to $10.42, the lowest monthly settlement since Jan'2016 - when the broader mining complex was flooring.

Summary: whilst both companies are fundamentally sound, the m/t trends are absolutely bearish into late summer/early autumn. The related precious metals of gold and silver are m/t bearish, and offer ZERO sign of a floor/turn.

Arguably, even the most bold of gold bugs will leave ABX, NEM, and GDX... well alone.

Miners settle under support

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a bearish note, -0.7% at $20.56, and that made for a net weekly decline of -2.8%. Mid term outlook is bearish, as key support has been settled under.


GDX weekly

GDX daily

Summary

A fifth consecutive net weekly decline for the miners, pressured by ongoing weakness in the metals.

The daily/weekly close under multi-year support is decisive, and offers much lower levels into year end. Soft target is the Dec'2016 low of $18.43. A weekly/monthly close <18.00 would be decisive, and threaten a full retrace back to the Jan'2016 low of $12.27.

The bold and cautious miner bulls will arguably leave the sector well alone.

Right now, I would only turn bullish with Gold >1400 or from 900/875.... whichever comes first. I accept the latter is a long way down, but the current m/t trend in gold is unquestionably downward.

Miners near key support

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a bearish note, -0.3% at $21.32, and that made for a net weekly decline of -2.1%. Near term outlook is bearish, as Gold has failed to hold the key Dec'2017 low.


GDX weekly

GDX daily

Summary

With gold cooling for a third week, the related miners naturally followed. GDX is nearing core price threshold of $21.00. Any weekly closes <21.00 would be exceptionally bearish. The fact gold recently failed to hold multiple aspects of support is suggestive that GDX will soon be sustainably trading <21.00.
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Two key miners...

Newmont Mining (NEM), monthly

Currently lower for a third month, but holding well above the 2017 lows.
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Barrick Gold (ABX), monthly

Currently -14.5%, having broken below the 2017 lows. Lower wedge/trend support around $10.50.
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NEM and ABX are the two biggest components of the ETF of GDX. They are both superb miners, but with gold, silver, and copper, short/mid term bearish, the cautious will leave both stocks and the sector well alone.

Rough week for miners

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a bearish note, -0.8% at $21.96, and that made for a net weekly decline of -2.9%. Near term outlook is bearish, as Gold has failed to hold the key Dec'2017 low.


GDX weekly

GDX daily

Summary

With Gold unable to hold the Dec'2017 low of $1238.30, the miners look in serious trouble.

The weekly candle in GDX was of the bearish engulfing type, and that leans s/t bearish. Things will turn VERY bearish with any closes under $21.00, which isn't that far down.

Best miners: NEM and ABX (the two biggest components of GDX), but the cautious will leave the sector well alone, not least with ongoing weakness in gold, silver, and copper.

Miners resilient to gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a weak note, -0.3% at $22.61, but that still made for a net weekly gain of 1.3%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things will only turn decisively bullish for the miners, with Gold >$1400, and there is zero sign of that any time soon.


GDX weekly

GDX daily

Summary

Suffice to add, I see the sector as highly problematic, as Gold this week came within 50cents of the critical Dec'2017 low of $1238.30. 

Note how GDX on Friday saw a reversal/cooling after filling the price gap. S/t bearish into next week.

More broadly, the miners have been stuck since early 2017. The more cautious will simply leave the sector alone, until a breakout... either side.

Miners remain broadly choppy

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a positive note, +1.7% at $22.31, but that still resulted in a net monthly decline of -0.1%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things would turn very bearish if Gold <1230, or bullish >1400.


GDX monthly

GDX daily

Summary

Suffice to add, whilst the week ended on a surprisingly positive note, it was really just another month of chop. Indeed, its now been around 18 months of pretty tight price action. The cautious will leave the sector alone, unless Gold breaks <1230... or >1400.

Best miners: Newmont Mining (NEM) and Barrick Gold (ABX), and both remain the two biggest components of GDX.

Miners still cooling with gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a significantly positive note, +1.2% at $22.18, but that still made for a net weekly decline of -0.2%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things will only turn decisively bullish for the miners, with Gold >$1400, and there is zero sign of that any time soon.


GDX weekly

GDX daily

Summary

Suffice to add, the past few months have seen very tight price action. The near/mid term outlook for the gold miners is of course primarily dependent upon gold. Gold itself is struggling, approaching the critical Dec'2017 low of $1238. The cautious will leave the sector well alone until a break in Gold >1400 or <1230.

Miners cool with gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a significantly weak note, -1.9% at $22.23, making for a net weekly decline of -0.6%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things will only turn decisively bullish for the miners, with Gold >$1400, and there is zero sign of that any time soon.


GDX weekly

GDX daily

Summary

A pretty bearish end to the week for the gold miners, but broadly... its still the same trading range since early 2017. The two biggest components of GDX...

Newmont Mining (NEM)

Newmont is currently net lower by -1.0% at $38.40. The stock has been broadly choppy since late January, notably holding just above the key 10MA.
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Barrick Gold (ABX)

Barrick Gold is struggling, currently -2.9% at $12.81, unable to climb back above the key 10MA. It could be argued price structure since mid 2016 is one giant bullish wedge/pennant. However, that is perhaps being overly bullish, as the key commodity of gold is showing zero sign of breaking above the decisive $1400 threshold.
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Suffice to add, both stocks are superb companies. Of the two, Newmont is technically far stronger, but fundamentally, both are pretty equal. The sector is currently highly problematic, as gold remains broadly choppy, and leaning s/t bearish. The cautious will leave the sector alone until Gold >$1400.

Things would turn exceptionally bearish for the miners if Gold breaks under the Dec'2017 low of $1238. The Friday close of $1278.50 is rather close to that critical low.

Miners climb with gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a weak note, -1.5% at $22.31, but that still resulted in a net weekly gain of 0.5%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things will only turn  decisively bullish for the miners, with Gold >$1400.


GDX weekly

GDX daily

Summary

Suffice to add, a moderately net weekly gain, but broadly... it remains chop since early 2017.

Partly based on m/t bullish trends in copper and oil, I'm still leaning on an eventual bullish breakout in gold >$1400. For now though, there is ZERO sign of that happening any time soon, not least with a stronger USD, and rising bond yields. The more cautious will leave the mining sector alone until gold >1400 and/or GDX >26s.

Arguably, the two best miners...

Newmont Mining (NEM)

Barrick Gold (ABX)

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NEM and ABX remain the two biggest components of GDX. I like both, but the latter remains technically m/t bullish, until it clears the >16.00.

Miners knocked by gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a muted note, u/c at $22.19, but that still resulted in a net weekly decline of -3.0%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things would turn bullish if Gold >$1400, or exceptionally bearish if <$1230.

GDX weekly

GDX daily

Summary

Suffice to add, gold is looking increasingly problematic, pressured via a stronger USD and higher bond yields/interest rates. The miners have been broadly stuck since early 2017, and for now... are showing little sign of exiting this unusually long trading range.

Miners higher with gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a slightly weak note, -0.3% at $22.88, but that still resulted in a net weekly gain of +1.0%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly

GDX daily

Summary

Suffice to add, it was a choppy week for the gold miners, but managing a sig' net weekly gain, clearly helped by strength in gold and silver.

More broadly, seen via the weekly candle chart, the miners are just continuing to broadly churn since early 2017. Things only turn decisive above the Feb'2017 high of $25.50
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Two key miners....

Newmont Mining (NEM)

Barrick Gold (ABX)

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Both are fundamentally sound, but ABX is clearly technically weaker.

*NEM and ABX are the two biggest components of the ETF of GDX, and there is no reason to see that changing any time soon.

Net April gains

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a weak note, -2.0% at $22.28, but that still resulted in a net monthly gain of +1.3%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX monthly

GDX daily

Summary

Suffice to add, a bearish end to the month, but the miners did manage a sig' net monthly gain. More broadly, its all been chop since early 2017. An eventual upside break appears very probable.
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The two biggest components of GDX are NEM and ABX

Newmont Mining, monthly

Newmont saw the fifth net monthly gain of the past six months, is technically m/t bullish, with soft target of the 45s, and secondary of 52/53s.
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Barrick Gold, monthly

A second consecutive monthly gain for Barrick Gold, but still technically m/t bearish, and that only changes if >16.00 from May 1st onward.
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Both stocks have seen recent good earnings. NEM is technically superior, but both look fine for the mid term. 

Miners cooling with gold

With Gold settling moderately lower for the week, the related miners followed. The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a significantly negative note, -1.5% at $22.71, resulting in a net weekly decline of -0.8%. Near term outlook is offering renewed upside. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly

GDX daily

Summary

Suffice to add... short term a little mixed, not least as Gold is yet to break above the decisive $1400 threshold. Most favoured miners: Newmont Mining (NEM), and Barrick Gold (ABX).

GDX - net March gains

With Gold and Silver net lower for the week, the related miners followed. The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week net lower by -0.6% at $21.98, but that still resulted in a net monthly gain of +2.9%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX monthly

GDX weekly

Summary

Suffice to add, a moderate net weekly decline, but a sig' net monthly gain. However, we're still just broadly choppy since early 2017. Until Gold can break above the $1400 threshold, there is little reason to expect the gold/silver miners to be able to manage a sustained/significant upward climb.
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Key miners....

Newmont Mining (NEM), monthly

A net monthly gain of 2.6% to $39.07. The stock is broadly holding the breakout (from a bullish pennant) seen in January. Cyclically flat lining. Soft target is the summer 2016 high of the $45s.
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Barrick Gold (ABX), monthly

A net monthly gain of 8.1% to $12.45, but still holding within a m/t bearish trend. From April onward, things only turn bullish >16.50, and that is a long way up. Cyclically low.

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NEM and ABX are the two biggest components of GDX. I like both miners, of the two, I favour NEM. Both have recently seen mid term call buying. The more cautious will wait for Gold >1400s and/or GDX >26s. The bold could buy, but with stops at the recent lows.