Miners remain broadly choppy

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a positive note, +1.7% at $22.31, but that still resulted in a net monthly decline of -0.1%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things would turn very bearish if Gold <1230, or bullish >1400.


GDX monthly

GDX daily

Summary

Suffice to add, whilst the week ended on a surprisingly positive note, it was really just another month of chop. Indeed, its now been around 18 months of pretty tight price action. The cautious will leave the sector alone, unless Gold breaks <1230... or >1400.

Best miners: Newmont Mining (NEM) and Barrick Gold (ABX), and both remain the two biggest components of GDX.

Miners still cooling with gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a significantly positive note, +1.2% at $22.18, but that still made for a net weekly decline of -0.2%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things will only turn decisively bullish for the miners, with Gold >$1400, and there is zero sign of that any time soon.


GDX weekly

GDX daily

Summary

Suffice to add, the past few months have seen very tight price action. The near/mid term outlook for the gold miners is of course primarily dependent upon gold. Gold itself is struggling, approaching the critical Dec'2017 low of $1238. The cautious will leave the sector well alone until a break in Gold >1400 or <1230.

Miners cool with gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a significantly weak note, -1.9% at $22.23, making for a net weekly decline of -0.6%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things will only turn decisively bullish for the miners, with Gold >$1400, and there is zero sign of that any time soon.


GDX weekly

GDX daily

Summary

A pretty bearish end to the week for the gold miners, but broadly... its still the same trading range since early 2017. The two biggest components of GDX...

Newmont Mining (NEM)

Newmont is currently net lower by -1.0% at $38.40. The stock has been broadly choppy since late January, notably holding just above the key 10MA.
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Barrick Gold (ABX)

Barrick Gold is struggling, currently -2.9% at $12.81, unable to climb back above the key 10MA. It could be argued price structure since mid 2016 is one giant bullish wedge/pennant. However, that is perhaps being overly bullish, as the key commodity of gold is showing zero sign of breaking above the decisive $1400 threshold.
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Suffice to add, both stocks are superb companies. Of the two, Newmont is technically far stronger, but fundamentally, both are pretty equal. The sector is currently highly problematic, as gold remains broadly choppy, and leaning s/t bearish. The cautious will leave the sector alone until Gold >$1400.

Things would turn exceptionally bearish for the miners if Gold breaks under the Dec'2017 low of $1238. The Friday close of $1278.50 is rather close to that critical low.