EBAY - bidding down into the low 40s

Ebay (EBAY) slumped lower by over 3.5% today to close in the low 46s.


EBAY, daily

Summary

Today's move was pretty impressive for the bears, and the close was certainly bearish. First target is $43, and then $41 - where there is strong trend/channel support. The 200 day MA @ $39.86 will add extra support to the 40/41 zone in the coming days.

Ebay remains a superb company, and is arguably not only recession proof, but might even be said to benefit from a recession. After all, in bad times people want to sell their unwanted things for much needed cash. If there is one company that will benefit from a US recession that deepens into 2013...its Ebay.

If the main market somehow manages to see some significant Oct/Nov falls, to at least the sp'1250/00 range, then Ebay will probably move down to $34. At that price, it sure would be a tempting buy ahead of any Santa rally/bounce into 2013.

FCX - bear flag

Freeport McMoran Copper and Gold (FCX) remains one of the worlds greatest mining companies. In terms of price action, it is closely mirroring the broader Sp'500 index. There is currently a pretty obvious bear flag, a break under $39 will confirm it.


FCX, daily

Summary

Great company, but that is a pretty clear bear flag on the daily chart.

A break under $39 would threaten the trend/channel, June rally from $31.

There will be VERY strong support around the $37/38 level though, with the 200 day MA.

If we see FCX break into the 36s or lower, it might be a leading indicator of trouble in the broader market this autumn.

ZNGA, FB - on their way to fair value

Zynga (ZNGA) and Facebook (FB) continue on their merry way to fair value. With Zynga's lousy earnings, the FB is back in focus once again. Just how can FB be valued at anything over $5 ? There is no doubt, FB will also hit new lows, and probably within the next month or two.


ZNGA, daily, 1yr

FB, daily, 8mth

Summary

I've very little to note on ZNGA, after all, what needs to be said. A business model based on virtual animals and virtual money. They have made some simple games they have entertained probably a few hundred million people or so, but that's all they've got...simple games, that people don't pay for.

ZNGA...is merely one to watch for entertaiment. No doubt, either it will go back to being held privately, or maybe even the FB will buy it out, now that would be rather fitting.

As for FB, fair value in the $12 to $10 range seems very likely, this could easily happen before the end of the year, even as early as middle November. There remain a truck load of new shares due to be unlocked..and they'll get dumped on the market at wash-out prices.

Fair Value will also be seen for the broader equity market, its just going to take some years for that to occur.