AAPL - poised to crash under $500

Apple (AAPL) suffered a second consecutive decline, collapsing 6.5%, to close @ $538. Considering the underlying momentum -and still weak main market indexes, AAPL looks set to challenge the recent low, take it out, and break the hugely psychological $500 level.


AAPL, daily

AAPL, monthly

Summary

Frankly, the AAPL chart looks crash-like. We have a black doom candle on Monday, warning of a failed rally, which was confirmed yesterday.

Today's very significant decline is a CRASH warning. Not necessarily of the main indexes, but certainly, for AAPL.

A break <$500 would most definitely give everyone a real scare, and the next level would be somewhere in the mid 400s. So, we could easily be looking at a drop of $75-100 in the coming days.


Technical warning

The fact AAPL is set to get a 'death cross' - where the 50 day MA breaks the 200 day MA, this Friday (or even tomorrow) only adds to the general 'crashy' air that now surrounds this once invincible stock. Amazing.

AAPL - death cross within days

Apple (AAPL) saw a warning candle yesterday, today's decline of 1.8% @ $575 confirmed yesterdays warning. Even worse for AAPL though, the 50 day MA is due to cross the 200 MA within days, such a 'death cross' will be a major sell signal.


AAPL, daily

Summary

AAPL failed to re-take the 200 day MA, and is now on the slide again.

Special note..

Expect the clown channel finance TV media to pick up on the 'AAPL death cross' later this week.
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Near term targets ?

First target is the gap level 540/30. IF we see AAPL in the 520s, then the big $500 will be back on the menu.

If $500 fails to hold, then mid 400s would seem very viable, and by such time, the main indexes would probably be in the mid sp'1200s.

FB - major intra-day reversal

Facebook (FB) saw a major reversal to start the week. After earlier peaking @ 28.88, FB fell sharply, closing 3.6% lower, to settle @ $27.00. FB closed on soft support, and remains within a very significant rising channel.


FB, daily

Summary

The over hyped..and still grossly overvalued FB had something of a very significant reversal day. Yet there remains a huge amount of hysteria surrounding this stock, and it could just as easily reverse back higher tomorrow.

For the bears, FB needs to close outside of the current channel, and back <$25.50, which will open up the 22/20 zone.

At the moment, considering the indexes are still holding together, it would seem FB will not be trading in the teens any time soon.

The long term fair value of $4 remains unchanged though, and as many recognise, the mobile advertising market is deeply misunderstood by the market. All those expecting multi-billion profits in the mid-term are going to be real disappointed....just like all those who got involved in ZNGA, GRPN...and all such social media nonsense.