AAPL - a very strong week

With the headline indexes breaking into historic territory, AAPL is following, and closed +1% @ $450. The next big target is the $500 psy level, but perhaps even more importantly, the 200 day MA, which is now lurking in the 530s. Time frame for the mid 500s would be July/August.


AAPL, daily

Summary

The $450 close is a very positive sign that an intermediate low has been put in. Yes, lower levels are still possibly across the longer term, but then AAPL itself is under-priced relative to the main market.

Trend is clearly upward, and it would seem the mid $500s will now be hit this summer.

The big issue is how will AAPL trade when it hits the 200 day MA.
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As ever, an important one to watch.

FB - hot money flowing into Facebook

Facebook (FB) saw some significant gains after earnings came in broadly as the market had been expecting. FB closed +5.6% @ $28.97. Next soft resistance is the psy' level of $30, and then the high of the $32s from late January.


FB, daily

Summary

So, a rather strong daily gain for the hysteria surrounded stock that is the FB.

Roughly, earnings look to be around 50 cents a year, and that would give a PE of around 55/60.

On any basis, that is 4x the market average, and thus I find the current valuation as nothing less than stupid, but then...there are plenty of other more extreme examples like AMZN or NFLX.

see key stats @ Yahoo! finance

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As many still suggest, real long term value might be close to zero, but myspace and geocities were around for a fair few years before they were abandoned by just about everyone.

TVIX, UVXY - ready for a big jump

With the indexes failing to be inspired by the FOMC, the VIX saw moderate gains of 7% into the close. The 2x bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY showed appropriate gains of 6.8 and 8.2% respectively. Near term offers some very strong viable upside.


TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily

Summary

First, keep in mind the daily VIX chart...

The VIX looks set to at least hit the 16/17s by the weekend. However, the big 20 threshold is viable if the market can make a challenge of the key sp'1536 low.

As for TVIX and UVXY, there should in theory be upside of 25/30%..minimum - if VIX can spike into the upper teens. Much more dramatic though would be VIX 20 - which would probably offer 50% gains for TVIX/UVXY.

That degree of upside is viable as early as this Friday. There is the big monthly jobs data, and if Mr Market gets rattled with fear of genuine economic weakness, then we might see a rather significant drop in the headline indexes - not just the Trans/R2K, as we saw today.
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As ever...such leveraged instruments are for short term trading only. Even a short 4-6 month chart displays the inherent dire decay.