BTU - coal miners bounce

With the US equity market seeing some moderate gains build across the day, the coal miners were a particularly strong sector, with BTU settling +2.2% @ $17.73. Near term outlook is bullish for Wednesday, but the mid/long term trend remains dire.


BTU, daily

Summary

A significant bounce, and break of trend, but with broader downside still expected into the early summer.
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The demise of JRCC

JRCC filed for chap'11 bankruptcy yesterday...

JRCC, monthly

A farewell to JRCC...along with even more distant demise of Patriot Coal (PCX).

I just wonder whether any of the remaining miners will also go under before the next big commodity price bubble.

DRYS - set to lose the 200 day MA

With the main market weak, and the BDI falling, the shippers are continuing to suffer, with Dry Ships (DRYS) falling another significant -2.1% @ $3.19. A failure to hold the 200 day MA of $3.06 seems likely, and that will open up the low $2s this summer.


DRYS, daily

DRYS, weekly

Summary

*first, an update on the BDI, which slipped -1.6% today...

BDI, weekly

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The brief foray into the $5s now seems a very long way up. Indeed, DRYS is lower by around -40% since late December.

If the main market does indeed roll over this spring/summer, down to the low sp'1600s, DRYS looks set for the low $2s, which is a further 30% to the downside.
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I would be looking to pick up DRYS in the summer..somewhere in the $1.75/2.25 zone..and hold into late 2015.

AMZN, NFLX, TSLA - momo stocks trashed.. yet again

With the equity market failing to hold the opening gains, the market turned sharply lower, and the momo stocks saw yet another smack down. Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), and Tesla (TSLA) closed significantly lower by -3.2%, -4.9%, and -5.9% respectively.


AMZN, daily

NFLX, daily

TSLA, daily

Summary

*I could add many other momo charts - such as FB & TWTR , but the above 3 are a fair spread that highlight the ongoing train wreck that used to be the 'momentum' sector.
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We are seeing some VERY significant breaks, all are below the 50 day MA, but we're now seeing the 200 day MA violated - namely, AMZN.

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If the main market breaks <1850 next week, momo chasing bulls will have a major problem. As it is, I don't think we'll see a major correction in the broader market until late April/early May.