GDX - a bad week for the miners

With the precious metals continuing to slide (the rising USD sure did not help), mining stocks had a very bad start to the month. The ETF of GDX saw net weekly declines of -6.1%. Outlook is bearish.


GDX, daily

GDX, monthly

Summary

In the immediate term, there is certainly a high possibility of a minor bounce - having filled the price gap from mid June. Yet, we now have a concrete wall of resistance in the $27s. I do not expect that level to be broken above in the remainder of the year.

The gold bugs are again starting to be reminded of what happens to commodities (most.. but not necessarily all), when the US dollar increases in value.

Despite a great deal of 'dollar doom' talk out there, we are clearly seeing the USD in a new multi-month up wave. This will no doubt keep very strong downward pressure on both the metals and the mining stocks, probably for at least another 3-6 months.
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*with my grander target of Gold $1000/900s, I am resigned to seeing much lower levels in the miners, and that would most likely see GDX under the big $20 threshold. It would not surprise me if GDX eventually floors in the mid/low teens next year.

AAPL - back under the big $100 threshold

Whilst the main market saw minor weak chop, there was more significant weakness in the tech sector. Apple (AAPL) saw a sharp sell down on major volume, settling -4.2% @ $98.94. Near term outlook is... borderline.


AAPL, daily

Summary

First...my broader market targets remain unchanged, with sp'2030/50 zone by opex week.

AAPL is of course a major component of the market, and today's drop was the largest since late January.

In terms of price, we have a clear daily close just above the lower rising channel. Any break to the 97s tomorrow, will open up a test of the 50 day MA in the $95s. A break under $90 looks unlikely this month.

There is the announcement of new products for the Christmas season.. next Tuesday. A super Tuesday for AAPL?

Regardless, AAPL is an interesting and important stock to keep an eye on.
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A glimpse of the new HQ...



Likely to be completed in 2016. 
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GDX - miners indirectly hit by rising dollar

With the precious metals being slammed - pressured by a rising US dollar, the mining stocks started the shortened week badly. The ETF of GDX fell a significant -3.4% @ $25.77. Next key support remains the mid $25s... and is likely going to fail.


GDX, daily

Summary

A failure to hold the mid $25s will open the door to a straight forward price gap fill in the low $25s.

Considering the broader trend in the precious metals... and with a US dollar that is continuing on a multi-month climb... the miners look set to further slip.

First major downside target are the low $20s from last December. I do not expect the 2013 lows to hold...in either the metals...or the precious metals.