Wednesday, 7 January 2015

M - breaking new historic highs

With the broader market starting to push back higher, Macys (M) continues to regularly break new historic highs, settling +4.0% @ $67.51. There is core support around $60, with the giant $100 threshold very viable in late 2015/early 2016.


M, daily


M, monthly, 20yr


Summary

Seen on the giant monthly cycle, the broader upward trend is starkly clear... having risen from a bizarre low of $4.52 in Nov'2008. Interestingly (like a fair few stocks)... Macys put in a marginally higher low in March 2009.. whereas the main market put in a final low of sp'666.

The giant $100 threshold is a bold upside target... but if you agree with sp'2500.. if not 3k, as viable before the current multi-year cycle is complete.. then M @ $100 is viable.

Tuesday, 6 January 2015

TWTR - jumps higher on a suggestion

Whilst the main market saw continued weakness, there were notable gains for Twitter (TWTR), which settled +6.5% @ $38.76. With the biggest gain since mid November, there is now viable upside to the price gap zone 43/47. If next earnings at least come in 'reasonable'... TWTR looks set for a return to the $50s.


TWTR, daily


Summary

*former Yahoo CEO Levinsohn - via clown finance TV (CNBC) no less, suggested TWTR should buy out Yahoo (YHOO)... hence the market ramping the stock this afternoon.
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I have to say, its an interesting idea, not least from the side of Yahoo, which remains a rather bizarre and lacklustre media/tech stock.

No doubt, TWTR could probably afford to launch a bid for YHOO, but I can think of better ways to spend billions of dollars.
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*TWTR remains an interesting stock to follow, but I have no interest in trading ANY of the momo/hysteria stocks. I've little tolerance for anything that doesn't pay a dividend, nor anything that is essentially nothing more than a website.

Monday, 5 January 2015

BTU, CHK, SDRL - carnage in the energy sector

With the broader market in a bad mood about a likely GREXIT, and Oil losing the $50 threshold, the energy stocks were smashed. Peabody Energy (BTU), Chesapeake (CHK), and Seadrill (SDRL), saw rather extreme declines of -9.6%, -6.4%, and -10.0% respectively. Outlook for the sector is bearish into late spring/early summer.


BTU, daily


CHK, daily


SDRL, daily


Summary

Oil looks set to slip to at least the $47/43 zone in the near term... with $35/30 in second half of 2015.
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On any fair outlook, a multi-year floor - even in the coal stocks... looks likely this summer. From there... it will be shopping time (at least in my view!).

For now... patiently waiting.