Miners broadly choppy

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a bullish note, settling +26cents (0.9%) to $28.99, but that still resulted in a net January decline of -29cents (1.0%). Despite a broadly choppy January, the m/t term outlook for remains bullish.

GDX monthly

GDX, daily

Summary

Despite settling net lower for January, the miners are comfortably m/t bullish, from the key August 2018 low of $17.07. Big target remains the 2016 high of $31.06.

The two biggest components of GDX:

Newmont (NEM)

Settling net higher by a very significant +3.7% to $45.06. Having already cleared the 2016 high (Newmont is ahead of the sector), next target is psy'50, and that looks very viable within Feb'/March.


Barrick Gold (GOLD)

Settling -0.4% at $18.52. Price structure is a multi-month bull flag, with big target of the 2016 high of $22.71.
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Of the two, yours truly favours GOLD.

Powerful year for the miners

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a weak note, settling -0.7% at $29.28, but that still made for a net monthly gain of +8.9%, and an annual gain of +39.8%. The m/t outlook is bullish with gold and silver.

GDX monthly

GDX daily

Summary

GDX broke a new multi-month high on New Years eve of $29.76, but did see some cooling to settle moderately lower. Regardless, it was both a bullish month and year.

Soft target is the 2016 high of $31.06. Any price action >32.00 would be decisive, and offer secondary of psy'50/52s. The latter looks realistic in the second half of 2020, not least if Gold >$1750 and Silver >$21s.

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Lets take a look at the two biggest components of GDX...

Newmont Goldcorp (NEM)

Newmont saw a very powerful net December gain of $5.19 (13.5%) to $43.45, which made for a net 2019 gain of 30.5%. With the 2016 high taken out, it opens the door to next target of psy'50/51 zone.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD)

Barrick Gold saw a net December gain of $1.79 (10.6%) to $18.59, which made for a net 2019 gain of +38.4%. We have a provisional confirmation of multi-month price structure of a bull flag. Soft target is the 2016 high of $22.71.
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Of the two, yours truly favours GOLD, but both trade together pretty closely.

Valid alts: AU, AEM, FNV, and WPM
Specific Silver miners: PAAS, HL, AG, CDE, KL, KGC

For the record, yours truly sees the previous metals and related miners, as the most obvious (and straight forward) trade for 2020.

Miners still bullish

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a bullish note, settling +39cents (1.5%) to $27.05, but that still resulted in a net November decline of $1.10 (3.9%). The m/t term outlook for the miners remains bullish.

GDX monthly

GDX daily

Summary

The miners cooled for the second month of three. Multi-month price structure is a very clean bull flag, as it is for Gold and Silver. First big target for GDX remains the 2016 high of $31.28, when Gold was $1377s. Any price action >32.00 would be decisive, and offer psy'50/52s.

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The two biggest components of GDX:

Newmont Goldcorp (NEM)

A net November decline of -3.3% to $38.44. Note the spike from the 10MA. Monthly price momentum remains moderately bullish. First target is the 2016 high of $43.31, with secondary of psy'50/51.


Barrick Gold (GOLD)

A net November decline of -3.0% to $16.79. Big target remains the 2016 high of $22.71.
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Of the two stocks, I favour Barrick Gold, although there is much to be said for a broad based ETF such as GDX.