GDX - strong monthly gains

With Gold and Silver prices seeing powerful gains across February, it is no surprise to see the gold mining stocks on the rise. Across the month, the ETF of GDX gained an impressive 10.3%, settling @ $25.91, back to the levels last seen in Sept'2013.


GDX, daily

GDX, monthly

Summary

So, the second consecutive monthly gain for the miners, but..we've seen this picture before - July/Aug' 2013, and Aug/Sept 2012. On both occasions, it didn't end well, did it?

My concern remains that the precious metals have not yet put in a key multi-year low. I'm still highly suspicious that Mr Market will want to wash out the $1000 Gold holders. before a grand new multi-year rally can begin.
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*if the main market rolls over late spring/early summer, the Gold miners will surely join the party to the downside.

RIG - an earnings miss

Transocean (RIG) missed slightly for Q4/full year earnings, with an early morning decline of -3% (intraday low: $41.44). Despite a latter day recovery, closing -1.1% @ $42.55, RIG is well below the old busted key support zone of $50/47.


RIG, daily

RIG, weekly

Summary

The Oil and Gas sector is one of the most unloved sectors in market land. Whilst profit less stocks like AMZN and TWTR continue to gain, the heavy industrial companies - such as Transocean and Seadrill, remain under constant downside pressure.

The bigger weekly chart for RIG is especially lousy, and we have a possible large multi-week bear flag developing.

With a forward PE of just 7, RIG is - on some level, undervalued by at least 30/50%, but as ever...'it is...what it is.

see key stats@ Yahoo! finance

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For now, from a pure price perspective, RIG is a broken stock, and looks vulnerable to slipping into the 30s. If the main market does see a (however brief) multi-month decline this late spring/summer, then RIG will surely continue to fall.

I have even seen talk of an eventual floor in the 20s - which is indeed where it has floored a few times in the past decade. Yet..the low 20s is another 50% lower, and that would give a PE of 6/4.

Crazy market...crazy prices.

AAPL - surprisingly weak

Despite the continued climb in the Nasdaq, Apple (AAPL) has been weak since early December, settling lower today, -0.9% @ $517. Critical dual support is at the recent low, along with the 200 day MA, in the upper $480s.


AAPL, daily

AAPL,monthly

Summary

*first, keep in mind the Nasdaq, monthly

It would seem we'll close higher by a very significant 4% or so this month.
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Crazy valuation

Relative to the main market, AAPL, with a forward/trailing PE of just 11/12 is one of those stocks that

see key stats @ yahoo! finance  

From a pure price perspective, the equity bulls need to hold the $480s...where we have multiple key supports. Any monthly close <$480..and the door is wide open to much lower levels this spring/summer.

As ever, AAPL remains a key stock to watch!