GDX - broadly churning

With the precious metals of gold and silver closing the month net lower, the related miners were naturally dragged lower. The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the day/week on a moderately positive note +0.5% at $22.07, but that still resulted in a net monthly decline of -2.7%.


GDX, weekly

GDX, monthly

Summary

Since the February high of $25.71, the gold miners have broadly churned. There have been fractional (and brief) breaks of core rising trend in both May and June. Such breaks certainly should concern the gold miner bugs.

What should be clear...a big break is due. Which direction will the break be?

Well, I sure don't own a time machine, but commodities can't fall forever. At some point we'll see a push upward.

Interestingly, one indirect bullish indicator for Gold/Silver - and the related mining stocks, is Copper, which is sitting close to the key $2.70 threshold. If copper can break/hold $2.70, it would be subtly suggestive that gold and silver will eventually follow.

AMD, MU, NVDA - short term weakness

Whilst the main market settled broadly weak, there was more significant weakness in semiconductor stocks, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Micron Technology (MU), and Nvidia (NVDA) settling -4.8%, -2.4%, and -3.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers further weakness into early July.


AMD, daily

MU, daily

NVDA, daily

Summary

Suffice to add, it was a very bearish day for tech stocks, especially those involved with producing CPU/GPUs.

Near term targets...

AMD - the 12.00 to 11.50 zone.
MU - 30.00/29.50.. where the 50dma is lurking
NVDA - the 50dma, 135/34

Even if the lower end of those targets are hit, it will do ZERO damage to core rising support/trend, that stretches back to early 2016. 

--
For the record, I'm especially bullish Micron Technology, on a pure valuation basis. Earnings - as issued in AH, were better than reasonable. Once the main market floors, whether sp'2400.. or 2350/40s... MU is a valid term buy.

yours.. running on a very efficient Nvidia GPU.

X - strong gains for US Steel

Whilst the main market closed broadly higher, there was particular strength in US Steel (X), which settled +4.6% at $22.57. Near term outlook offers some cooling - along with the main market, but an eventual move to at least the $24.00 threshold is due in July. Things turn bullish for the mid term >$28.


X, daily

X, monthly

Summary

If main market has another wave lower in the near term (as seems probable), X will surely at least be pinned back to some extent.

Broadly though, the US market remains super strong, and X should trade to the lower end of the big price gap by mid July.

--
Something of note today, July $24 call buyers in X

Its interesting that the call buyers were choosing the $24 strike, which is my first soft target.

--
I like US Steel for the mid term, but the more cautious bulls will simply wait for a few daily closes back above the 200dma, currently at $27.85.