Miners end the month poorly

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a powerfully bearish note, settling -$1.93 (6.9%) to $26.22, and that resulted in a net February decline of -$2.77 (9.6%). Despite a major reversal, the m/t term outlook remains bullish.

GDX monthly

GDX daily

Summary

With Gold printing the $1691s, GDX broke above the 2016 high, with a high of $31.84. Yet... with Gold being whacked to the $1564s into end month, the miners settled February on a very bearish note.

The February candle is of the bearish engulfing type, and leans s/t bearish. I am still m/t bullish gold, and by default, the related miners.
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The two biggest components of GDX:

Newmont (NEM)

Recent earnings were good, with Newmont breaking a high of $51.34. The month ended badly though, with Newmont seeing a net decline of -0.9% to $44.63. The February candle is extremely spiky from key price threshold of psy'50, and it leans s/t bearish. Still m/t bullish.


Barrick Gold (GOLD)

Recent earnings were good. Barrick Gold pushed to $22.50, but ended the month far below the high, settling +3.1% at $19.04. The February candle is very spiky from key price threshold, and leans s/t bearish.
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Of the two, yours truly favours GOLD.

Miners broadly choppy

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a bullish note, settling +26cents (0.9%) to $28.99, but that still resulted in a net January decline of -29cents (1.0%). Despite a broadly choppy January, the m/t term outlook for remains bullish.

GDX monthly

GDX, daily

Summary

Despite settling net lower for January, the miners are comfortably m/t bullish, from the key August 2018 low of $17.07. Big target remains the 2016 high of $31.06.

The two biggest components of GDX:

Newmont (NEM)

Settling net higher by a very significant +3.7% to $45.06. Having already cleared the 2016 high (Newmont is ahead of the sector), next target is psy'50, and that looks very viable within Feb'/March.


Barrick Gold (GOLD)

Settling -0.4% at $18.52. Price structure is a multi-month bull flag, with big target of the 2016 high of $22.71.
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Of the two, yours truly favours GOLD.

Powerful year for the miners

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a weak note, settling -0.7% at $29.28, but that still made for a net monthly gain of +8.9%, and an annual gain of +39.8%. The m/t outlook is bullish with gold and silver.

GDX monthly

GDX daily

Summary

GDX broke a new multi-month high on New Years eve of $29.76, but did see some cooling to settle moderately lower. Regardless, it was both a bullish month and year.

Soft target is the 2016 high of $31.06. Any price action >32.00 would be decisive, and offer secondary of psy'50/52s. The latter looks realistic in the second half of 2020, not least if Gold >$1750 and Silver >$21s.

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Lets take a look at the two biggest components of GDX...

Newmont Goldcorp (NEM)

Newmont saw a very powerful net December gain of $5.19 (13.5%) to $43.45, which made for a net 2019 gain of 30.5%. With the 2016 high taken out, it opens the door to next target of psy'50/51 zone.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD)

Barrick Gold saw a net December gain of $1.79 (10.6%) to $18.59, which made for a net 2019 gain of +38.4%. We have a provisional confirmation of multi-month price structure of a bull flag. Soft target is the 2016 high of $22.71.
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Of the two, yours truly favours GOLD, but both trade together pretty closely.

Valid alts: AU, AEM, FNV, and WPM
Specific Silver miners: PAAS, HL, AG, CDE, KL, KGC

For the record, yours truly sees the previous metals and related miners, as the most obvious (and straight forward) trade for 2020.