Thursday 10 May 2012

CSCO - a warning of trouble ahead

Cisco (CSCO) had good numbers in its Q1 earnings issued last evening, yet the guidance for Q4 was warning of trouble ahead


CSCO, daily


Today was a relative massacre for Cisco holders, you rarely see a Dow'30 stock fall 10% in a single day. Considering that the results themselves were good, you'd think the stock might even be up, but of course, Mr Market cares little for the past...and is forever living in the future.

The next primary support for CSCO is clearly the low from last Octobers high 14s. That is still another 12% or so away. Anyone buying CSCO today, or in the next few weeks is probably going to be real disappointed at the lack of a consistant and strong bounce/recovery. The stock would appear set to struggle for the rest of the summer, not least if the main market is weak, and breaks below sp'1300.

From a bigger macro-economic perspective, CSCOs warning is more ammunition to the Permabears who are suggesting the USA will - contrary to mainstream opinion, follow both Japan and the EU, into a new recession by Q4. Of course, we won't have that confirmed until Q1 of 2013.