Tuesday 29 May 2012

FB - the entertainment continues

Over valued, over hyped, and over bought - that remains the wonder that is the Facebook (FB).


FB, daily


Summary

It remains highly amusing that FB managed to form a bear flag in its first full trading week, and that flag was confirmed today with a break below the big $30. The next target zone is 26/24 - by this Friday.

Long term 'real world market' target remains $12/10 by end of this year.

My 'Fair Value' for FB is $4, although frankly, I'd not be a buyer unless I saw it under $1.50. I just can't tolerate companies that don't pay dividends, have an unreliable income stream, and a customer base that could switch to a superior new product at ANY moment. Ohh, and the P/E ratio of around 100 was of course the ultimate sick joke on Mr Retail Trader.

The mainstream media/analysts appear to seem resigned to FB levelling out in the 25/20 range, a few have mentioned 15/12.
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An interesting consideration is that if the monthly index charts are correct - with Sp'1100, then FB in the mid teens seems very possible by late July/August.