Friday 5 October 2012

ZNGA, FB - on their way to fair value

Zynga (ZNGA) and Facebook (FB) continue on their merry way to fair value. With Zynga's lousy earnings, the FB is back in focus once again. Just how can FB be valued at anything over $5 ? There is no doubt, FB will also hit new lows, and probably within the next month or two.


ZNGA, daily, 1yr



FB, daily, 8mth



Summary

I've very little to note on ZNGA, after all, what needs to be said. A business model based on virtual animals and virtual money. They have made some simple games they have entertained probably a few hundred million people or so, but that's all they've got...simple games, that people don't pay for.

ZNGA...is merely one to watch for entertaiment. No doubt, either it will go back to being held privately, or maybe even the FB will buy it out, now that would be rather fitting.

As for FB, fair value in the $12 to $10 range seems very likely, this could easily happen before the end of the year, even as early as middle November. There remain a truck load of new shares due to be unlocked..and they'll get dumped on the market at wash-out prices.

Fair Value will also be seen for the broader equity market, its just going to take some years for that to occur.