Monday 22 October 2012

AMZN - sliding before earnings

Whilst the main indexes staged a closing hour recovery, Amazon (AMZN) failed to rally, closing -2.6% @ $233. The near term trend remains down, and with earnings later this week, price volatility looks set to increase.


AMZN, daily


Summary

We've seen a reasonably consistent decline since the QE spike of $264, falling around 10%.

First target remains the rising support of $215. It would seem very difficult to push under there, even if earnings come in lousy. $200 would be a natural second line of defence, but if 215 does fail to hold, there is a moderate chance of $170s by end November.

AMZN has severe profitability issues, with razor thin operating margins, and looks very vulnerable - although that has been the case for over a year.

At some point AMZN looks set to collapse - just as CMG, NFLX, GMCR, and even the GOOG did last week. The only issue is when.

Eventual downside target -if the world economy weakens significantly, and if AMZN management are unable to raise operating margins back to 7-10%..would be a stock price of around $100..if not even considerably lower.

*AMZN have earnings at the close, Thur' Oct25.