Tuesday 12 February 2013

TVIX, UVXY - the horror continues

Another day lower for the VIX, and so its not surprising to see the 2x bullish VIX instruments - TVIX and UVXY, both close a little lower, by 2.3 and 2.0% respectively. With the VIX back in the low 12s, there is simply no momentum to the upside...in this fearless market


TVIX, daily



UVXY, daily


Summary

The VIX itself hasn't quite broken the recent lows...but its real close.

VIX'daily3



As is the case with the leveraged instruments, the statistical decay is a real problem, and both TVIX and UVXY made fractional new lows today..even though the VIX has not.
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For the moment, there is simply no fear in this market.

With the Fed throwing 45bn a month of POMO $ at the primary dealers, I increasingly find it difficult to even envision a minor VIX gap-fill in the 16-18 range. How many months might we have to wait until that level is hit again?

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As always, all leveraged instruments are for short term trading only.