AAPL - a fifth monthly decline

Apple (AAPL) closed the day -0.7% @ $441. Across the month of February, AAPL lost 2.5%, and this was the fifth consecutive monthly decline for AAPL - something we've not seen in over twenty years! Near term trend looks weak, with a potential bearish H/S formation, suggesting sub 400s this spring.


AAPL, daily

AAPL, monthly

Summary

A fifth month lower for AAPL, and it really is historic. I don't have access to data prior to 1993, but I can definitively say, AAPL has not seen five months of declines in the past twenty years. That is pretty incredible, and even more so, when you consider the broader equity market which is still trending higher.

With a cash pile of around $150 per share, AAPL remains a bizarre company.

Theoretically, it seems impossible to consider the stock much lower, but the price action is still suggesting a break under $400 seems likely.


Under-valued?

Forward PE is in the 8s. Even if profits dropped 50%, you'd still only be looking at a PE of 12, which is under the current market average of 15 (or 20)..depending on how you calculate it.

see key stats @ yahoo! finance

Baring a collapse in its loyal consumer following, AAPL is significantly undervalued relative to the main market, but as noted..near term price action says further declines coming.