Friday, 2 May 2014

TVIX, UVXY - now it not yet the time

With the VIX seeing a net weekly decline of -8.2%, settling @ 12.91, the 2x lev' (bullish) VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY naturally declined, by -7.6% and -8.6% respectively. Near term outlook is for the VIX to remain in the low teens for some weeks.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


First, an update on the weekly VIX

I do not expect VIX to be breaking back into the 20s until mid/late June at the earliest. If the broader equity market can put in a key inter'3 top this May/June, somewhere in the sp'1900s, then VIX is set to start a broad climb...but not quite yet.

As for TVIX and UVXY, clearly, whilst the VIX is only seeing minor chop, the old problem of statistical decay is going to plague these instruments.

Best guess?

I'm seeking a key inter'3 top in the US equity market this summer, somewhere on the sp'1925/50s, and then a multi-month rollover, down to 1625/1575. In my view, that is probably the very best the bears can hope for, before the next hyper wave to the upside.

What would that mean for the VIX? I'd have to assume at least the 25/30 zone, but if there is some major (if brief) geo-political conflict this summer, then VIX has a small chance of spiking much higher.

My own plan is to pick up a VIX call block (Sept/Oct) 20/25 strike, sometime in late May/early June.