Friday 20 March 2015

TVIX, UVXY - new lows with perpetual decay

With equities seeing strong net weekly gains, it was a rough week for the 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments. TVIX and UVXY saw net weekly declines of -16.4% and -16.7% respectively. The problem of statistical decay remains a serious issue, and the latest new lows are not surprising.


TVIX, daily



UVXY, daily



Summary

*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly decline of -18.6%.


VIX looks set to remain subdued for some weeks as the sp'500 battles into the 2120/30s. There is viable 'algo bot slow grind' all the way into June... when there remains the first real threat of a Fed rate rise.
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As for TVIX and UVXY..  they remain train wrecks for anyone holding longer than a few weeks.

There was a notable UVXY option trade today... see the following Friday update from Mr T.



A huge trade (120,000 x $510 per contract = $61.2 million), and considering the perpetual decay issue, it should be very profitable by mid 2016.
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In terms of TVIX/UVXY in the near term... further declines seem likely as the broader US/world equity markets continue to break new highs. Seasonally, there is a chance for the Volatility bulls across May-June.