Wednesday, 3 February 2016

GDX - miners breaking out

With precious metals continuing to climb from the mid December low of Gold $1045.40, the mining stocks achieved a rather notable break above declining trend. The ETF of GDX settled higher by +7.3% @ $15.35, the highest level since late October.

GDX, daily

GDX, monthly


We have a clear break of trend, one that stretches all the way back to mid May 2015 - when most US equity indexes were maxing out.

As things are, I'm still highly dismissive that Gold has seen a key multi-year floor @ $1045.

A trading problem...

If the broader market resumes lower to the sp'1700/1600s within the next few months, that sure won't help the mining stocks.

For now, I have ZERO interest in picking up any mining stocks whilst the broader equity market outlook is bearish for the mid term.

Then there is the underlying issue that some miners are still liable to implode. Industry capitulation is STILL due within the mining sector... not all of the currently listed stocks are going to be around by end 2016.

Seen on the giant monthly cycle, if could be argued we have a 6-8 month floor, but its notable the miners and precious metals broke new lows as recently as December.

To me, unless GDX >$20, I can't take the current gains seriously.

yours... still patiently watching