Friday, 9 December 2016

TVIX, UVXY - the destruction resumes

With US equities resuming powerfully upward, volatility was crushed back lower, and that resulted in the 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY net lower for the week by -20.0% and -20.1% respectively. Near term outlook threatens an equity retrace, but broadly, the market remains super strong.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


First, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly decline of -16.8%.

As for TVIX and UVXY, last week's gain was entirely negated this week...and then some. There will always be threat of sporadic equity retraces, but broadly... the trend is clear. Equities look super strong into early 2017, and that will keep the VIX broadly pinned low.. probably no higher than the mid teens.

As ever, holding leveraged instruments overnight, across the weekend, or multiple weeks, rarely ends well, due to a number of problems, not least 'statistical decay'.

*yours truly has ZERO interest in being long the VIX for the mid term (at least April/May 2017), as the main US market appears headed far higher. That view only changes if sp <2100.