Friday, 23 December 2016

TVIX, UVXY - holiday decay

It was a week of moderate equity chop, and that saw volatility itself continue to cool. The 2x lev' bullish instruments of TVIX and UVXY both saw net weekly declines of around -11.5%. Near term outlook threatens a little spike in the VIX to the low teens, but that won't do much to inspire TVIX/UVXY.


UVXY, daily


First, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly decline of -6.2%.

As for TVIX and UVXY, pre-holiday (especially Christmas) trading weeks rarely favour the equity bears/VIX bulls.

Frankly, its not a surprise to see TVIX/UVXY breaking new historic lows this week.

Even if VIX 13/14s before year end, that will do very little to kick TVIX/UVXY that much higher.

The VIX-long trade IS dead. That view only changes if we're trading back under the monthly 10MA, which will be around sp'2170/80 in January.