Tuesday, 18 September 2012

FDX - warning of trouble

FedEx Corp (FDX) cut its earnings outlook, and Mr Market was understandably not pleased, with FDX closing 3% lower in the mid $86s. There was some significant sell side volume today.


FDX, daily






Summary

FDX is a great barometer of the wider economy. After all, EVERYTHING is transported at some stage, and if the couriers aren't doing well, its a strong sign that the underlying economy is having issues.

FDX remains a very profitable company, yet today's warning is something to reflect upon as we approach the start of Q4. What sort of Christmas sales season will we have? That will certainly be a key issue for margin-fragile companies like AMZN.

From a price perspective, first downside target is the June low in the high 83s. That is certainly in range within the next 2-5 trading days.

For those who follow the transports index closely, you can clearly see that FDX is sporting an almost identical chart to its mother-index. If the transports index closes September <5000, and if FDX breaks the June low in the coming days, then that will be a real red flag for this Autumn.

For further details on today's announcement see: Bloomberg
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