Tuesday 26 March 2013

TVIX, UVXY - another five percent lopped off

With the sp' closing @ 1563, the VIX slipped 7% lower, and this was naturally bad for both the leading 2x bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY, which declined by 5.5 and 5.1% respectively. Near term looks weak for the VIX, with a new up cycle starting next week.


TVIX, daily



UVXY, daily


Summary

First, keep in mind the latest action in the VIX

VIX'daily3


On any basis, the VIX looks like its going to slip lower into the extended 3 day Easter weekend. There is no reason why the bears will be able to whack this market significantly lower in the near term.

My best guess is that the indexes max out by next Tue/Wed, and by such time, the VIX might be in the 11s.

If that is the case, then TVIX and UVXY will be a further 5-10% lower.
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Another reverse split looms

I'm unaware of any planned reverse split for either TVIX or UVXY, but with the current prices so low, another 1 for 5 or even 1 for 10 RS seems likely within the next month or so.

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As with all leveraged instruments, such things have inherent..and 'terminal' decay, and are for short term holds ONLY ! Anyone holding these for more than 2-3 weeks at a time needs to have their trading screen taken away.