Wednesday 31 July 2013

JCP - systemically failing

J C Penney (JCP) saw a very severe collapse wave in the afternoon, closing -10.2% @ $14.60. The snap lower was caused on news that a commercial lender (CIT) has stopped supporting companies delivering to JCP stores. Long term price trend remains...dire.


JCP, 5min



JCP, daily



JCP, monthly, 20yr historic



Summary

With the main market failing to break into the sp'1700s..and instead seeing downside to sp'1685, it was no surprise that JCP fell, but with the news that a key industry lender has cut support to companies associated with JCP, the stock saw a pretty severe latter day collapse of 10%.

**See Zerohedge story for further details..and the usual 'feisty' comments.
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Bigger trend is one of systemic failure

Now, there is little reason why the maniac bargain hunter/knife catchers won't be buying JCP across the next few days, but still, the monthly charts are clear..JCP is in dire trouble. It is pretty amazing to recognise that JCP was $40 just over 18 months ago, never mind the $70s in 2007.

From a chart perspective, JCP looks set to challenge the 2009 low of $12.55. If that fails to hold...and I'm guessing it will FAIL, then JCP will then proceed to the 2000 low of $7.17..if not all the way to zero.

JCP faces massive competition, within an industry that has always struggled with low profit margins. Considering the 'economic recovery' - as weak as it has been, JCP is still struggling to stay afloat.

see key stats @ Yahoo! finance

From a balance sheet and profit-margin (lack of) perspective, JCP is simply...dire.


Sears...not much better than JCP

The same 'systemic' issues are arguably also inherent within Sears (SHLD), it remains to be seen whether Sears will implode before JCP. I have to think, it will be rather amazing if either JCP or SHLD are still around after the next business cycle peaks in 2015/16.
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Regardless, from a trading perspective, JCP is sure to see some wild price action in the coming days.