DRYS - retracement complete?

Whilst the main market saw minor price chop, Dry Ships (DRYS) saw a very sharp decline of 10% to $3.08, on falling shipping rates, and renewed negative media attention. Near term trend is weak, but DRYS has arguably completed a natural 25% retracement, having doubled from $2 in August.


DRYS, daily

Summary

The shipping stocks are often a volatile bunch. Since the explosive ramp from August, we've now seen a very significant retracement of 25%

Yet, despite the current negative news postings across the web, the recent 3-4 week decline is probably just a natural retracement after the initial break and snap higher.
--

The shippers are still struggling to turn a profit since the 2008 commodity bubble popped. DRYS is no exception

see key stats @ yahoo! finance

*next DRYS earnings, Nov'12.
 --

BDI - on the slide, BDI, weekly

DRYS trades pretty closely (as it should) to the BDI. Baring the BDI breaking under 1300/1200, I'm going to guess that the BDI is indeed starting some kind of multi-year increase, maybe as high as 6000 by 2015/16.

If that is remotely correct, DRYS will be in the 15/20 zone, if not even higher.

Both DRYS and the more important BDI are to be closely watched in the months ahead.