GDX - miners on the edge of breaking out

Whilst the main equity market churned sideways, there was some real notable strength in the Gold miners. The ETF of GDX closed a significant 3.4% higher, settling @ $24.73, just a touch under the key 200 day MA. A monthly close >25, opens up 30/35.


GDX, daily

GDX, monthly

Summary

The gold bugs - of which most are very much loaded with mining stocks, are understandably taking a real interest in the past few weeks of broad gains.

Yet...the bugs have been repeatedly teased since the grand decline began in late 2011..when GDX was in the mid 60s.

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First things first, for those who are bullish the mining stocks...

1. a few daily closes above the 200 day MA
2. a monthly close >10 MA... the $25s
3. any subsequent retracement to hold above the monthly 10MA.
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Still bearish on Gold/Silver

I remain broadly bearish on the precious metals until Gold has at least briefly tested the huge psy' level of $1000. However, this could take another year to hit..at which point Gold - along with the mining stocks, may have seen a moderate multi-month gain.

For anyone getting overly excited at today's GDX close, I can only refer them to the monthly action of Aug/Sept 2012, and July/Aug 2013. In both cases..it never ended very well.